EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 710
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The daily candlestick is 44p so far, if the americans sleep like they do now, the value will be a record....
As everyone is waiting for the northward move, we should start by knocking down the stops...
How not to do it :)
Yeah, it's the banks' job to get more players out of the market. To make it easier to control the flight of the exchange rate.
And the mechanism itself leads to this at the beginning of volatility, when the levels have not yet been broken through.
Fibo
Posted at 15:21 02.12.2009
Trading is sideways or slightly lower, with the exception of the dollar/yen pair, where the latter is slightly depreciating.
The Bank of Japan is expected to launch a credit programme with the equivalent of $115 billion at a rate of only 0.5%. Bank of Japan is hoping to boost business activity in the country and push the yen away from dangerous levels at the same time, as further appreciation of the Japanese currency, in addition to putting pressure on the export sector, accelerates the deflationary mechanisms in the economy. However, it is still premature to talk about a change in the downtrend.
Likely volatility could be triggered by the publication of U.S. employment data. If it shows a fall in employment, the first reaction to it may be a fall in the dollar (with the expectation that the Fed's move to a tightening of monetary policy will not take place soon with these figures). However, after it is clear that this indicates weakness in the region's economy, risk aversion could set in, which would give the dollar its usual support. In addition, the Beige Book report at 2200 Moscow is not out of the question. This is a lagging indicator and is unlikely to trigger an active reaction, but it will still allow to see the whole US economic picture. For the time being, the report is expected to show the smallest contractions since last summer. Consequently, it may cause a new rush of optimism on stock markets and dollar selling on currency markets. In this case the EUR/USD might easily break through the current 14-month highs (1.5140) and go towards the long-awaited 1.5200.
Tomorrow's ECB meeting, where an exit strategy from the current stimulus policy is likely to be discussed, will add support to the Euro. Although, another announcement of the problems of this or that financial institution may once again lead to a reversal in the markets. For the time being, however, the current downtrend processes for the dollar remain in place. Raiffeisen Bank, as well as Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, assume that the euro will grow.
Certainly, it is possible to speak about different fundamental and technical factors for a long time, but only one thing is obvious: the trend will continue rather than turn around.
MFX FIBO Group analyst Mikael Nersesov
-203
Ambush
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... Until it bumps 1.5020 and goes down to 1.494 - it won't go up to 1.52. Too many willing to poke around.
If it closes below 1.5045 today, it will go down tomorrow.
I do!!! as long as the price is above 1.5050 down it's better not to trade as for me....
.
It's all "conservative investors" who ran to the yen, frightened by the leader of the goy-eyed tribe Naibuka the Squint, threatening to slightly decrease their currency, because the quid is tired of playing the fool and pushing either the euro or the yen to the highs...