First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 74
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rustein, только не сейчас. Спать хочется :)
It's not an illustration. It's just... Night-time forex.
Это не иллюстрация. Просто.. Ночной Форекс.
))) Uh-huh. Alexey here already found Chris Deburg: "Moonlight and vodka take me away..."
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Good night...
Yeah, I'm thinking along the same lines. The entry point is easy to find - by the self-organisation of the system.
The hardest part is the exit point. But to exit at the start of an anti-trend is not good either.
Basically, it is possible to find the variant "not always in the market", i.e. to exit for the reason that is not symmetrical to the entry reason. Then the paper profit loss will probably be less.
If you can elaborate on the level of the sausage, especially that which is highlighted in colour. It looks a lot like trading on the news.E[x(i)] is the mathematical expectation of tomorrow's price. Without any window. That is, if the up-trend, you expect, and have good reason to expect, that tomorrow's price will be higher than today's, and the day after tomorrow's price will be higher than tomorrow's. It may not happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but over a long period, on average, it will turn out that every next day was higher than the previous day.
Actually, this is a concept from the theory of martingales (mathematical). Just a reminder, for those who have forgotten or who are not in the know. The most important property of a martingale is that the best estimate of the expected value of the series is the current value. That is E[x(i+1)]=E[x(i)]. But, there are also sub- and super-martingales. This is when the best estimate of the expected next value is not equal to the current value. That is, E[x(i+1)]>E[x(i)] or E[x(i+1)]<E[x(i)] respectively. It is clear that while one cannot "make money" on martingales, one can "make money" on sub- or super-martingales. Just by playing "always long" or "always short", depending. And yes, the "best estimate of the next value" is not necessarily the arithmetic mean, it can be a more complicated procedure, no matter what, the main thing is that in a statistical sense it is the "best estimate". In general, the use of indicators is an attempt to find this "best estimate". The problem is that the estimation (in the form of an indicator) can be inadequate or it can lead to martingale - the results are known. Yes, by the way, the next value of the series, - it may not be a single quotient, but some combination of market information.
And can you elaborate a little more on the sausage level, especially what's highlighted in colour . I think it looks like trading on the news.
Well yes, sort of on the news, but without the FA.
People, please see at least the last few pages. The link to the description is on the previous page for rustein.
As for the fish and sausages, I'm not giving them away, try to understand it yourself. For preliminary acquaintance with the trading concept suggested by me, read both articles by Semenych. They are here: https://www.mql5.com/ru/search.
My approach is ideologically approximately the same, but technically different: I count the "indices" of currencies differently (in Semenych's case it is the sum of separate units with signs from different pairs to one currency), and I do not have any smoothing.
What is a trend - conceptually? OK, I'll try to give my concept - as applied to Forex on short term movements (medium and long term have different laws).
A trend is not a total crash of a pair, but a crash of one currency in a pair. It is probably the case for both, but that is rare. The notion of a catastrophe is not negative, it is not necessarily a fall.
There is no trend of a pair. It is always the trend of the whole market of a given currency. The trend is a concept that requires multi-currency analysis.
The trend has started: all currencies have started a strictly (or almost strictly) correlated movement relative to the currency that is crashing (KKK). When applied to pairs that have KKK in their composition: the movement of all such pairs can be interpreted as a directional movement of the "catastrophe currency" of the KKK.
But this is not enough. In the thread on the absurdity of multi-currency analysis from getch, I laid out the elementary reasoning that proves that KKK exists at any given time. It takes an additional condition (a decent kick at the start) for all this to become a real disaster.
The trend will continue: the KKK catastrophe condition will continue for some time after the correlated move starts. I have not yet come up with a criterion for terminating the KKK catastrophe. We need a decent flat concept (a more complex and subtle concept).
Alexey, it seems to me that a correlated oscillatory movement, i.e. a purely flat movement, would also fit under this definition. Thus, multicurrency alone is not enough for the definition. Or did I miss something?
Generally speaking (looking back to Occam) there must be some real entities behind the terms. Personally, for example, I have the impression that there may be different entities behind directional movement as well. Like in the two pictures below.
Intuitively I associate the word "trend" with the first picture. With the second one I rather associate the word "momentum". By the way, a "trend" in such an interpretation consists of "impulses" both in the tail and in the opposite direction.
If we want to describe something we should not mix different entities.
Guys! Why mess with your brains like that? Determining the beginning and end of a trend is a piece of cake. Take your favorite turkey. Any one. And modulate its readings on a discrete interval -1, 0, +1. Suppose: -1 - the market is falling, +1 - the market is rising, 0 - the state of uncertainty. For some time interval (for example, a day) add these units and zeros for all bars on several TFs. The sign of the obtained sum will indicate a declining trend and an opposite sign will indicate a trend starting soon. ))) This is the roughest method that can be well retouched for your own needs and get sufficiently accurate entry/exit points.