First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 52
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Не первый раз вижу Ваще мнение и не понимаю его. Тренд: рост - падение. Как этого нет? Было вчера и будет завтра. Просто завтра - это прогноз тренда. Вот будет ли прогноз тренда на будущее - это большой вопрос. Если вы имеете это ввиду, то да. Но ТС можно делать на разных прогнозах. Нобеля требовали цифру и СКО и на этом получили Нобеля. Для ТС тренд не нужен - нужно прогноз направления.
Already for the 101st time, draw a random walk graph x(i) = x(i+1) + e(i), where e(i) is any stationary noise, and look at it for a long time and think. There will be "rise - fall", but no trends.
пример из жизни: температура в течении года явно имеет тренды связанные с временами года. Но даже это при прогнозе гарантий не дает, т.к. прогноз д.б. с достаточной точностью, а шумовая (неучтенная вами компонента) м.б. достаточно большой, делающая ваш прогноз практически бесполезным. Ну можно сказать, что завтра погода будет как сегодня +0.3 градуса за счет того что лето ближе))) +-5градусов. Трендовая компонента незначительна в данном случае по сравнению с шумовой, но она объективно присутствует. Гарантий не дает, для прогноза на ближайщие дни бесполезна. Впрочем, так же как и на более длительные сроки
These are not trends, but seasonality. Also a deterministic function, but not a trend. Today, a week's weather forecast for continental regions is done very accurately. Up to half a year is worse, but the number of hits far exceeds the number of errors. The main thing is that there is a theory which explains the presence of this determinism, i.e. trends (in this case seasonality) are possible and their search in time series is justified.
There is no such theory for financial markets, which means that searching for a trend in a time series of prices is just guessing by coffee grounds.
timbo писал(а) >>
There is no such theory for financial markets, which means that the search for a trend in the time series of prices is just guessing by coffee grounds.
Once my maths teacher at the Higher School of Economics made a lyrical digression during a practical lesson. He told me about some fake mathematics used by aircraft developers.
Empirically drawn-out formulas (because there is no normal theory of turbulence) are widely used there.
"If I had known about this mathematics thirty years ago I wouldn't have come close to any aeroplane with serious intentions. :)
Now I am more democratic - I fly and I don't care, as long as they have been working out these formulas in practice for a long time... it seems to work... somehow... they fly ....".
;)
Already for the 101st time, draw a random walk graph x(i) = x(i+1) + e(i), where e(i) is any stationary noise, and look at it for a long time and think. There will be "rise - fall", but there are no trends.
There are trends. Take the channel and you'll see that the trend goes strictly to the turning point - the turning point is the maximum value of the market that starts the process of changing the trend...
On the oscillator below, the red line shows how the trend behaves - it can be said to be that noise that we constantly see - but when it reaches a certain level, the price starts to reverse - the other three lines (pink is the combined movement of red, green, yellow and orange) show how the price behaves in general, trying to sift out noise, ie, the minimum impact on them, the oscillator can only be used in conjunction with other methods and to find the best entry or exit point...
тренды есть..Канал возьми построй и увидишь что тренд идет строко до точки разворота - точка разворота - это скажем в понятии рынка максимальное значение в котором начинается процесс сменны тенденции..
You've done a very good job of quoting me exactly on the random walk. "Build a channel and see that the trend goes strictly to the pivot point" on the random walk chart. But you built that chart yourself, you know there are guaranteed no trends there. But you do see them.
What wonderful channels are built on SB, how amazingly support/resistance levels work out. Your oscillator will probably draw something meaningful there too. But there isn't any. What do you have? Only glitches.