First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 14
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-Girl, are you from Moscow? -Yes.
-Yes! -What?
This is a joke, but
When the price vibrates its range to a certain extent has a certain level (the upper and lower boundary of the price) with the first excess of this range occurs saturation, which develops into a reversal and forms a trend, and for different periods, different spread of the range, but if the excess in several ranges occurred in one direction begins a sharp throw in the opposite direction ... So you have a global trend for given periods, though such situations rarely occur, but for a common local trends such with
In addition, you can use the Oscillator, which will filter out the false reversal signals ...
"sho" - that's from the cartoon about the dog. "I'm gonna sing" is from the same cartoon.
Ehhhhh, this concept is familiar to me. I'm glad you have a third eye and can see such things :o) Good for you :o)
How reliable are you in determining the trend in this way? How many percentage errors do you have?
No-no Alexey, don't upset the man. It's simple, either statistics and various theories or shamanism with tambourines and jumping over the fire with the deposit. Take your pick, don't mix them up :o). (again - as a joke).
"sho" is from a cartoon about a dog. "let me sing" is from the same cartoon.
Ehhh, this concept is familiar to me. I'm glad you have a third eye and can see such things :o) Good for you :o)
That cartoon is a national treasure of that culture at the time and not only, you can watch it and watch it and just enjoy it,
One phrase in particular suits this forum - "What? Again?
This cartoon is a national treasure of that culture at the time and not only, you can watch it and watch it and just enjoy it,
One phrase in particular is appropriate for this forum - "What? Again?"
>> that's what I meant. :о)
That's all well and good, but it's hard to believe that the price is being driven by the crowd. It is more likely to be run by individuals.
And they cannot be suspected of making rash and ill-considered decisions.
I have great suspicions too. It turns out that there are 100 times more oil derivatives than oil spot. 70% was concentrated with five investment banks. There is a fairly tight correlation between the oil price and the dollar exchange rate. One hope is that these guys do not speculate, but organise price movements of at least 20% over intervals of over six months. Within these intervals, especially within a week, the price is most likely determined by the crowd. By the way, where is the fundamental analysis?
I have great suspicions too. It turned out that there were 100 times more oil derivatives than oil spot. 70% was concentrated with five investment banks. There is a fairly tight correlation between the oil price and the dollar exchange rate. One hope is that these guys do not speculate, but organise price movements of at least 20% over intervals of over six months. Within these intervals, especially within a week, the price is most likely determined by the crowd. By the way, where is the fundamental analysis?
These guys are manipulating oil to bring down Russia like Thatcher did with the Union.
These guys are manipulating oil to bring down Russia like Thatcher did with the Soviet Union.
The good news is that there is nothing left to ruin. They are sawing off the bough they are sitting on. There's more news for me. All these hedge funds are offshore and derivatives are not regulated by US law. The global evil is crashing the global financial system. This is the heights it has reached.
These guys are manipulating oil to bring down Russia like Thatcher did with the Soviet Union.
So far they're doing a great job of bringing America down. :))
Well, we started with trends and now we are making predictions about America's future:)
Going back to the original topic, what is a trend.
A trend is a market condition that has the following attributes:
1. Displacement of mathematical expectation of increase in quotations.
2. Presence of a local memory. In other words, presence of local deterministic component, presence of dependence of following quotes from previous ones.
3. Hearst index greater than 0.5. Or the fractal dimension greater than 1.5. By the way, using these indices we can distinguish (at least in theory) a series of real quotes from the series created with a random number generator.
Source: Peters' book "Chaos and order in capital markets".
The summary conclusions from the same book are rather trivial and not very reassuring (as I have stated them and somewhat crudely):
1. If there is a trend, it is more likely to continue.
2. it is impossible to determine the emergence of a trend at an early stage by analyzing the price trend.
3. It is impossible to predict where and when the trend will end by analyzing the price trend.
4. The profit in the market is obtained not because of the opportunity to predict where the quotes will go, but because of the infinite variance of the quotes increment.
If you are interested in discussing the topic please contact me personally or read the original source.)