Piligrimus is a neural network indicator. - page 12
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But of course this will require not only information about quotes from one timeframe, as I did in this problem, but a lot of information about different instruments, timeframes, as well as fundamental factors, but this is a completely different problem, will require completely different resources, and will be solved without me, but its solution in the future But its solution is real, believe it or not, I know it.
we are all (gathered here, I hope) interested in questions of faith :) Recall Zeno's famous aporia:
The swift-footed Achilles will never catch up with the turtle, if at the beginning of the movement the turtle was ahead of him at some distance.
Suppose Achilles runs ten times faster than the tortoise and is 1 kilometre away from it. In the time it takes Achilles to run that kilometre, the tortoise crawls back 100 metres. When Achilles runs 100 metres, the tortoise crawls another 10 metres, and so on. The process will go on indefinitely, Achilles will never catch up with the tortoise.
No offence - but it seems to me that you have not proved anything, either to yourself or, all the more so, to us. Your proof is a kind of Zeno proof. There is a very big difference between CAN DO and DONE. The proof of your rightness can only be one - your locked (on the same Onyx) real, on which the balance curve shows a steady growth over at least six months with a number of transactions at least a hundred.
You just have found a way to get away in a more interesting for you activity, probably, subconsciously, realizing that the cost of getting predicted results in Forex is much higher than the real trading profit that is obtained by such predictions (as an example of winning at sport-loto told to you).
I sincerely wish you good luck in your new literary field :)
We are all (gathered here, I hope) interested in questions of faith :) Remember Zeno's famous aporia:
No offence, but I don't think you've proved anything, not to yourself, much less to us. Your proof is a type of Zeno's proof. There's a very big difference between CAN DO and DONE. Proof that you are right can only be one - your locked (on the same Onyx) real, on which the balance curve shows a steady growth over at least six months with a number of transactions at least a hundred.
You just have found a way to get away in a more interesting for you activity, probably, subconsciously, realizing that the cost of getting predicted results in Forex is much higher than the real trading profit that is obtained by such predictions (as an example of winning at sport-loto told to you).
I sincerely wish you good luck in your new literary career :)
I'm not trying to impose my opinion on anyone, and even more so blind faith, it's dangerous, without proper knowledge it will lead to imminent disappointment. But your conclusions are wrong. If I wanted to just walk away I would have done so without making all this fuss on the forum, I'm not vain and I don't need anyone's recognition and I don't owe anyone anything. I just wanted to help those who don't have enough experience of their own yet, and instill confidence in those who are overcome with doubt, it's, as I wrote above, a serious obstacle in the search. And, as I've said before, I'm not interested in real trading, and I'm not doing this job for that. I've already proved everything for myself, as Vysotsky said - "the only mountains are better than the ones you haven't been to yet". I could continue modeling and forecasting, there is no limit to improvement, you can improve the accuracy, achieve a smaller lag, etc., but this is a matter of technology, purely quantitative indicators, I do not see qualitative growth for myself, so it's no longer interesting. It's a pity I haven't been able to show it properly to others, but perhaps it's really not the right time yet, everyone has to go their own way.
Goodbye to all at this point, I won't be appearing on this forum again. Don't be angry if I have offended anyone inadvertently. Sorry if I haven't met anyone's expectations. I wish success to everybody and may God help you in your hard work.
...
That's goodbye to everyone, I won't be appearing on this forum again. Don't hold a grudge if I've offended anyone inadvertently. I am sorry if I have not lived up to anyone's expectations. I wish success to everyone and may God help you in your hard work as traders!
here it is=======================================================================================> the hard truth :-0)
....real trade does not interest me, and I did not do this job for that reason...
It's a good thing that builders build houses in order to live in them, not for the sake of architecture 'as such' ;)
Too bad Piligrim didn't comment on my graph and never answered my question: was there a mistake in my conclusions, that there is a "hidden peek into the future" in such systems...
I'm just interested specifically in the trade... Maybe someone else knows the answer?
Piligrimm, just one question. In your opinion, is it possible to predict a LUCKY value?
Answer options:
1. Yes.
2. No.
3. To whom casual, and to whom not!
Piligrimm wrote >>
Answer number 2, but first, purely random processes used in practical life not so much; secondly, even if you face it, sometimes it's possible by using special methods of processing to make quasi-random - then there's a chance to predict it with more or less degree of probability. For instance, when I started to predict lotto sports, and the process itself is random, I didn't do well for a long time. Eventually I realised that I couldn't solve the problem with lobbying. Then I started looking for workarounds. Having statistics of draws I've started to model the process of working of the barrel, and I used this model as a modulating signal that processes history data; moreover I've introduced several deterministic signals, that can be easily predicted, and that give a quasi-random process in covariance with a random statistics signal. And using the Method of Grouped Argument Counting (i.e. genetic algorithm), I succeeded to reveal some regularities in the work of the system as a whole, which allowed selecting the group of numbers, which could appear in the next draw, with high probability. As a result of the forecast, of course, I did not get the value of 5 numbers of the next draw, I got the order of 10 most probable numbers at the output, from which it was necessary to make all possible combinations of 5 numbers to fill the tickets, and as a result only one of the tickets of this combination was a winner with an accuracy of 3-4 numbers out of a possible 5. But nevertheless, it worked.
And when it comes to the Forex market, I don't consider it a random process at all. It's very complicated, multi-factorial, multi-dimensional, has a lot of distortions and interference, we don't have the fullness of information, and often it is very delayed, but with all this - Forex market is not random!
I hope the (correct) answer is that price movements are NOT random. I.e., the up and down scatter is of course random, but there must be a common price line (if very conventionally, the MA) around which random fluctuations take place. It appears in the form of the same trends on higher timeframes. And the task of the trading algorithm is to find and use in trading regularities of movements of this line: we should evaluate and understand (the eternal question :)) A trend or a flat, and if there's a trend - then what kind of trend. When we solve this problem and matstatistics and neural algorithms can give so much needed positive effect.
The deterministic movement of price VR ("...some general line of price movement...") to me implies, on the contrary, non-random fluctuations around. After all, the greater is made up of the smaller! And if you think about it like that, the process of price formation can be seen as something definite and clear, but heavily noisy with random events. They are not the same thing, and while the former implies a 'natural' course of things, the latter requires a 'determinative' will.
Moreover, I believe that the whole league of traders, can be divided into two big camps on this basis. The first stick to the conception that one must find this "reasonable" will in trading chaos, and trade according to it. The second camp includes those who try to understand the laws that govern the elementary price increments (a kind of price quarks), and knowing them, one can build a general picture of the market. I belong to the second category.
And what is a random process? And is the Sportlotto draw a completely random process or is it still influenced by the wear and tear of the ball-stirrer, the abrasion of the loading chutes, changes in atmospheric pressure and humidity levels in the room? Read Smoke Bellew by Jack London, particularly the chapter "The Kid Sees Dreams". The presence of cheating in the game is not to be considered.
The market is not a completely random process, this has already been proven - Google-Scholar to your aid. That is, there is a certain determinism in this very random process.
You have to assume there is a link between atmospheric pressure, grooves and stuff with the ball number...
This is delusional!
You have to assume there is a relationship between atmospheric pressure, grooves and other things with the ball number...
That's ridiculous!
The balls are placed in the grooves strictly in order before launch, i.e. it can be assumed that the first in the row and the last in the row have different trajectories into the drum and the probability of being first near the exit hole.