"Miracle", "digital" "group" movement indicator - page 13
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and silence.....
Well, off this page then - for the late ignition - apologies - resting...:-)))
Yes, very similar. It's almost close. I don't want to correct, I want to clarify. As much as some people here claim that they only need the majors. They will calculate the rest. Practice shows that they are silent about one thing their calculation accuracy is +-lapot (to the accuracy of spread/2). Here is an example https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/132599/page2
Now about speeds. At school we often solved problems (remember) where there was a path, velocity and acceleration. Knowing these parameters, say, for a car, we can assume with a probability not 50/50, but a little more, let it be 85 to 15, that the car rushing with great speed and acceleration, is more likely to continue the way, than turn around. Am I right....a if so, then we need to find analogues of these concepts in forex (just imagine that this is not a graph of euro/dollar, but how a car (plane or say fly flies) is moving). Calculate and build a forecast...
At first glance the task is simple, but when you start going deeper into it, you understand that everything is not so simple. You have to remember, when you digitise any analogue value there is noise. This noise is called noise of sampling and quantization. So they exist (noise calculation formulae are available somewhere here), so before you need to get rid of them. It can be done sequentially, we can build a filter and pass quotes through it. And then analyze it. Or we can perform a combined analysis (take into account the presence of noise), I chose this way. I describe the movement with stochastic differential equations, it means immediately Kalman filtering here in details. https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/105740/page15
I always try to forecast price and price is (asc+bid)/2. The more accurate the forecast the better and more perfect TS you can build, there is research here on the forum, look for how the forecast affects the quality of TS, it enters in the profit in the 4th degree if I remember correctly.
And the third - we must not forget that we do not see the net movement of euro or dollar, but can only observe the projection of this movement on the plane euro/dollar-time or the plane euro/pound-time etc. so I build an index of currency movements of euro, dollar, pound, etc. And it's very important to close the space to have the whole matrix (all projections), if you calculate them through the majors then shit happens (although this is understandable, mathematics is an exact science, it's in statistics there are confidence intervals there you can +-spread count...) in mathematics can not.
In short, it's like this...
But are currency pairs enough for all this?
But are currency pairs enough for all this?
But are currency pairs enough for all this?
I agree with you to some extent. I think it is not enough only currency pairs, I also thought about this kind of analysis (your previous post). If gold price would be in terminal not only in relation to euro and dollar, but in relation to all currencies, then yes, the mechanism may be thought over.
For example, we have the EUR/USD. In fact the samples are not equal in time and it turns out that this sinusoid has many samples in some interval and we can draw it more accurately, but in its other interval the number of samples is too small and we cannot make a good estimation. To fill the missing bars we can use pairs that include euro and dollar. (May be they will start to appear in the crosses first, and then the majors will have no success in such situations) (my brain twists but I tried to explain my thoughts in more simple way))) By the way, I almost forgot, we should not predict the prices, but the interaction of these appearances.
I can try to apply it to reciprocal changes in ask prices and bid prices for currency pairs. I will do it at the weekend and I'll show the results.
I agree with you in some respects. I think it is not enough just currency pairs, I also thought about this kind of analysis (your previous post). If gold quotes in the terminal were not only related to euros and dollars, but to all currencies, then yes, the mechanism may be useful, but so far I have not thought it through.
They may calculate pairs, or even currencies through gold/dollar. But I think it will be not quite correct.
Gold also costs different things in different countries
Yes, but if gold starts to fall, it will fall against all currencies (even if not equally, but in the same direction).
A single currency index indicator could also be made. And there are such developments.
At one time I had a "multi-currency" idea. It was based on the idea that the total world "gold reserve" remains unchanged and flows from currency to currency like liquid in communicating vessels. The "magic formula" included all currencies with their weights.
K1*V1 + K2*V2 +...+Kn*Vn = 0. The hypothesis was that the movement vector of the currency index should be in the direction of "sea level". And if one currency index rises higher than the others and the other dives deeper than the others (and both are outside the thresholds), then it is worth trading between them.
The difficulty turned out to be in calculating the weights. Calculation by actual data led to "unnatural" and negative weights. Calculations using adopted weights (based on official data on the number of currencies encountered) have led to strong deviations of modelled prices from the real ones, with the results being "exactly the opposite".
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A comment on the idea. Imagine several communicating vessels of equal height and different diameter. The large diameter is USD, the small diameter is CAD, the medium diameter is JPY, etc.
If the USD is falling slowly, the levels in the other vessels are rising. The correct upward trajectory is dictated by the total cross section of all other vessels (levels in all vessels rise in sync). If there is a deviation from the total level in any vessel, then there is a vector indicating the direction of movement.
But all this happens in dynamics. And if, for example, USD, went down and stayed there, it is necessary to correct the model - to recalculate diameters in order to equalize the overall "sea level".
To do this, one must probably take into account the amount of "gold reserve" in the country of each individual currency, which is also constantly changing.