NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 58
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Yeahaaaaaaaaa...... 57 pages ))) it looks like people have completely lost their brakes! Does anyone remember what question I asked at the beginning? What was the original point of the thread?
I dread to think what 57 pages would cover... it's a whole book ))))
And what question did you ask here "in the beginning"? It makes me wonder...
Hi ballistika, good to hear from you.)
So the mechanics are worried about their Future....
Hello, dear friends.
I got to you by accident. I've come across a description of a method proposed by a man who hides under the pseudonym "ballistika". It said the information was from a forum www.mql4.ru. At www.mql4.com/ru I searched for texts with the word "ballistika" and ended up in this thread :)
At first I read the messages that ballistika didn't manage to delete :) and those that were addressed to her. But, having found that intelligent and, as I still thought, tactful people talk here, I read the whole thread (which I do not do very often).
Although this thread has acquired the character of free communication, I will begin with my vision of the answer to Implex's question: "Is it possible to train brain (I speak exaggeratedly) on historical data with a prognostic purpose? That is, learning what many programmers and mathematicians try to teach the ANN. Learning by the same methods (but on a different plane)".
Once upon a time I too was interested in neural networks (but only not in connection with the exchange and FOREX, but just out of interest). Maybe something has changed now, but previously the network was called "neural network" not because it is a model of the human brain, but because its organization somewhat resembles the brain: nodes (neurons) and connections. At that time, a neural network was a finite state machine based on logic. So my point is that neural networks and artificial intelligence are not the same thing.
Going back to the question, I think brain learning is possible, but not on historical data because the historical data is not complete and the nature of the observed environment is not stationary. I agree with ballistik`a that buying past quotes from a foreign agency does not make sense because the trader has a relationship with a particular DC. In addition, historical data will not reflect the dynamics fully. Ballistika gives an example of brain training - observation of rates behavior and identifying patterns.
I have been interested in FOREX since the end of 1999. I've tried to apply the maths to it, tried to look at it in a different way than the technical analysis imposed on me (that's why I liked the example of the acoustics neighbour). I deliberately do not use the word MARKET in reference to FOREX, because it IS NOT a MARKET. It amazes me that people have such a blurred view.
TA methods are drawn to FOREX from commodity and stock exchanges, but conversion rate and asset value are not the same thing. On the stock exchange, the trader sees the QUOTATION of asset prices, while on the forex, he sees the RELATIONSHIP of assets (currencies) to each other.
I distinguish 3 types of participants in forex: speculators (they convert for profit in a reverse transaction), strategic investors (they convert not for profit but for other purposes), and central banks. Strangely, there is a perception that "if everyone buys, then the price goes up". If ALL are buying, who is selling? It seems to me that this error is provoked by the statement: "the Central Bank is buying to strengthen the currency", and few think about the fact that the Central Bank is buying when most participants are selling.
Good luck to you :)
Good luck to you :)
Is that like saying goodbye? Just started saying goodbye and all of a sudden it's "good luck" :( What about the sequel?
I didn't think anyone would continue my thoughts and start answering in a meaningful way...
Good luck to you :)
Are you saying goodbye? Just started saying goodbye and all of a sudden it's "good luck" :( What about the sequel?
I didn't think anyone would follow my thoughts and answer in a meaningful way...
No, I just wished you good luck :)
Or is it too much for you? ;)
PapaYozh писал (а):
No, I was just wishing you good luck :)
Or is it unnecessary for you? ;)
I don't believe in luck, unfortunately. But thanks anyway :)
So, that's all the formalities, now we can get down to business. Express your thoughts, if you have something to say. I'm very attentive. It's been over a year since my first post, and I'm still interested. Although I'm not dealing with Forex, the theme is interesting for me, it provides much food for thought. Here it is.
Well, "thoughts in the studio", as they say. Please...
I read the first dozen pages of this thread for the sake of interest and I am BLEEPED!
People, what's wrong with you?! It's like the world has collapsed - so many respectable and intelligent people are wasting their time arguing about things that have NO WHOLE BEEN... - I'm shocked. Perhaps you can't say it better than this quote from "Science and Life" magazine:
"...The impression is that the time of science and progress in Russia is over. The impression is that the time of science and progress in Russia has come to an end. They are now the most welcome guests in television studios, magazine and newspaper editorial offices. They explain to us in detail which amulet will protect us from spoilage and which one from the evil eye; we daily listen to TV reports and articles about the production of magic potions and elixirs of eternal youth, about the miraculous recovery of the hopelessly ill and about the latest contacts with the pilots of "flying saucers". A poll of viewers, gathered randomly enough in the studio during one of these programmes, revealed that eighty percent of them believed in the predictions of "clairvoyants"... What on earth has become of us? Why do we allow ourselves to be fooled? Why do scientists generally subscribe to the role of tick-tape commentators or "consult your doctor" in the wake of the weekend arias of sorcerers and fortune-tellers? Fighting superstition (as well as all stupidity in general) with appeals to common sense is futile. Only the light of knowledge can dispel the darkness of ignorance. But now the gloom is so thick and dense, that it is not enough, as it was always done by the "Science and Life", to tell about any event, to explain any phenomenon from the scientific or even simple reasonable point of view. It has become necessary to discover the absurdity penetrating into the light of God and only then to explain what is actually there...
...In general, people far from science are always tempted to replace complicated notions with simple everyday analogues. By the way, this principle is used in any advertisement that simplifies complicated things to the level of a kitchen pan. For example, when they advertise shampoo, they talk about biologically active substances that supposedly penetrate the hair, causing it to grow like wheat. The truth is, hair growth has nothing to do with hair biology. Hair is keratinized tissue that can't absorb anything. It's not wheat and it's not lawn because it's just differently organised, although similar. Similarly so-called psychics and bioenergetics, who due to low level of literacy simply do not understand what we are talking about, successfully use scientific notions for earning money on people who have very approximate notion about the subject too...
...From the point of view of a psychological science what happens on TV today (and not only on TV) is simply monstrous. Systematic propaganda of charlatans and their activities cannot be perceived other than as a symbol of degradation of collective intellect. For a long time, people have been under the strange illusion that censorship was preventing them from releasing their creative energy. Censorship has disappeared, and it has turned out that there is nothing to get out. And the absence of any barriers led not to an increase in creative energy, but to a decrease in its level. Over the last ten years, the level of literacy of the population, school and university education has declined catastrophically. The process of the decrease of the nation's intellect is inertial, but we will see its consequences soon enough - when today's university graduates start treating us, teaching our children, building houses and bridges...
...The references like "nobody forces you to watch (read)" are not only untenable, but deeply flawed in their essence. Television product, no matter how good it is, unfortunately, will be consumed by the viewer at least for the reason that there is nothing else on offer. This, in fact, is the essence of any informational impact. In order to neutralise its negative effects, many times more efforts are required.
Therein lies the main danger. "
Good luck to you :)
Are you saying goodbye? Just started saying goodbye and all of a sudden it's "good luck" :( What about the sequel?
I didn't think anyone would follow my thoughts and start to answer in essence...
You're the one who's capable of having a substantive conversation... I've made several attempts...
I read the first dozen pages of this thread for the sake of interest and I am BLEEPED!
People, what's wrong with you?! It's like the world has collapsed - so many respectable and intelligent people are wasting their time arguing about things that have NO WHOLE BEEN... - I'm shocked. Perhaps you can't say it better than this quote from "Science and Life" magazine:
"...The impression is that the time of science and progress in Russia is over. The impression is that the time of science and progress in Russia has come to an end. They are now the most welcome guests in television studios, magazine and newspaper editorial offices. They explain to us in detail which amulet will protect us from spoilage and which one from the evil eye; we daily listen to TV reports and articles about the production of magic potions and elixirs of eternal youth, about the miraculous recovery of the hopelessly ill and about the latest contacts with the pilots of "flying saucers". A poll of viewers, gathered randomly enough in the studio during one of these programmes, revealed that eighty percent of them believed in the predictions of "clairvoyants"... What on earth has become of us? Why do we allow ourselves to be fooled? Why do scientists generally subscribe to the role of tick-tape commentators or "consult your doctor" in the wake of the weekend arias of sorcerers and fortune-tellers? Fighting superstition (as well as all stupidity in general) with appeals to common sense is futile. Only the light of knowledge can dispel the darkness of ignorance. But now the gloom is so thick and dense, that it is not enough, as it was always done by the "Science and Life", to tell about any event, to explain any phenomenon from the scientific or even simple reasonable point of view. It has become necessary to discover the absurdity penetrating into the light of God and only then to explain what is actually there...
...In general, people far from science are always tempted to replace complicated notions with simple everyday analogues. By the way, this principle is used in any advertisement that simplifies complicated things to the level of a kitchen pan. For example, when they advertise shampoo, they talk about biologically active substances that supposedly penetrate the hair, causing it to grow like wheat. The truth is, hair growth has nothing to do with hair biology. Hair is keratinised tissue that can't absorb anything. It's not wheat and it's not lawn because it's just differently organised, although similar. Similarly, so-called psychics and bioenergetics, who due to their low level of literacy simply don't understand what they are talking about, successfully use scientific concepts in order to earn money from people who also have a very rough idea of the subject...
...From the point of view of a psychological science what happens on TV today (and not only on TV) is simply monstrous. The systematic propaganda of charlatans and their activities cannot be perceived otherwise than as a symbol of degradation of collective intellect. For a long time, people have been under the strange illusion that censorship was preventing them from releasing their creative energy. Censorship has disappeared, and it has turned out that there is nothing to get out. And the absence of any barriers led not to an increase in creative energy, but to a decrease in its level. Over the past ten years, the level of literacy of the population, school and university education has declined catastrophically. The process of the decrease of the nation's intellect is inertial, but we will see its consequences soon enough - when today's university graduates start treating us, teaching our children, building houses and bridges...
...The references like "nobody forces you to watch (read)" are not only untenable, but deeply flawed in their essence. Television product, no matter how good it is, unfortunately, will be consumed by the viewer at least for the reason that there is nothing else on offer. This, in fact, is the essence of any informational impact. In order to neutralise its negative effects, many times more efforts are required.
Therein lies the main danger. "
Do you even dream at night? I suppose not.