NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 39
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to Korey
You have an interesting style of putting your thoughts across. (I'll go look up some of the terms "wunder waffe" and the book "digging a pit from a novel of the same name").
But here are some of the thoughts I disagree with.
The power of alignment (CB) - all my life I've been leveled and leveled, (I'm still in the army), no way it works out for them :-) .
IHMO there is no limit to earning on FOREX and there is no external force that aligns me, either. The important thing is what's in your head and how you feel about it. And FOREX is not digging ditches, and the development (at least of your own gray matter). It is the creation of a tool(s) for yourself to make the right decisions, to be better, stronger, faster, more powerful, etc.
And I think Tikhonov V.I. should not be put off, but on the contrary try to find and read, as he was engaged all his life in the analysis and study of random processes. He managed to do a lot in this direction. And this book "Statistical Analysis and Synthesis of Radio Engineering Devices and Systems". And this book "Statistical Analysis and Synthesis of Radio Engineering Devices and Systems", 2004 was published while he was still alive (I think it will soon become bibliographic rarity, as the first edition), so not so ancient thoughts and ideas are written there, they only need to be turned in FOREX direction.
So dust off the textbooks and go to the barricades ;-).
Z.I. And this phrase is confirmed. I wonder whether the war is "mine or not" and that's it, the obsession is over - consciousness expands to a safe level. I was talking about the same here 'Theory of random flows and FOREX' and here 'Theory of random flows and FOREX' about safe level and war. Sart that's why (thoughts converge) I gave so many pluses. Sorry if anything is wrong. Delight has nothing to do with it.
2 Prival
Actually I meant: A.N.Tikhonov. Regulating algorithms and a priori information. -Moscow, Nauka, 1983. I confess, that I did not save my program packages by A.N.Tikhonov, when I was up to date with science. Now it is a brake.
A cursory glance at the imported JMA shows unambiguously that it is almost a reconstructed sample of market forces, i.e. by A.N. Tikhonov, i.e. by ours, i.e. subtracting the integral contribution of the aperture..,
However, when you posted that you had exhausted the quote signal to zero using a series of approximations, and got a +1/-1 chatter, it became clear to me from this that extracting the sample would not have any exclusively predictive properties. This was sobering.
As a developer of real-time automated control systems, who's been through about 20 episodes from conception to implementation, I'd say there's always a certain hole in the most complex mathematics, which allows to do without complex models. This hole, or door-hole to success, is in the vicinity of the problem statement. And it has always been difficult to find, it is difficult to find this - "what actually needs to be done, and for whom, and for what purpose, and who benefits from it".
to Prival.
About the safe level, an addition.
Observations have revealed that safe levels are sort of quantized.
For example, a beginning trader (first stage)) should not exceed 6% per day and 9% per month, 10% per year on initial deposit.
A second step trader is 8% per day, 15% per month and 20% per year.
etc.
Third step trader up to 15% per day, up to 20% per month and up to 29% per year
(Explanation - you as a military man naturally feel your, and not your - jackets (in a good sense jackets, because you feel - because there is a system, and what is not a system of trading)).
However, when you posted that you exhausted the quote signal to zero using a series of approximations, and got a +1/-1 chatter, it became clear to me from this that the sample selection would not have any exclusively predictive properties. This was sobering.
Not by approximations, but by a Kalman filter. That's a bit different. There's prediction + models. And I also know that quite often complex models can be dispensed with. Where it's thin, it's torn. But in order to find this "hole" you need to know and understand the whole process to be analyzed + the goal = what you need to get as a result of the analysis.
About the power of alignment.
Once, many years ago, I was levelled in a very peculiar way. First, I got the Republican prize for the best R&D. (and I live in the Republic). Then, in an undercover order a sergeant found out that I had a book in English at home, namely Fortran-77. The question was put as to how this man knows English, and the answer was given - supposedly it was his mother tongue. I was taken offended, of course. As it was in Gorbachev's time, the result was 'call a spade a spade, but don't put it into the oven'. It is only now, now I really see what the Force of Alignment showed me with it. I should have written my results in works rather than with sergeants.
It is the same with trading. The aim is a decent living, not mathematics, and not an argument with destiny. The tactic is to work as a trader below the CB threshold, not to put yourself under stress in pursuit of...
to - Prival
My apologies for the comments...
1. Andrei Platonov, Kotlovan http://www.libmax.ru/newsbok_91248.html.
The psychophysical state of the characters in the novel 1:1 corresponds to that of a distressed trader.
Particularly, there was a pit dug under the building of the bright future, and when the work was coming to an end, the order to double the pit came.
2. Wunder Waffe read as Wunder Waffe .
3. The phrase, "This war is mine, or not?" For me, the essence of a derivative of the phrase Buba Kastorsky, "But what about me?" (in the movie "Elusive Avengers"), and the phrase of the boy with the rods, "And what are you doing here? The value of this phrase is in the dichotomy between the doer and the recipient.
About the power of alignment...
It's the same with trading. The goal is decent living, not maths, and not arguing with fate. The tactic is to work as a trader below the NE threshold, not to put yourself under stress in pursuit of...
Correction. The power of alignment - it's not static, it's proportional to the degree of awareness. It turns out that it will retreat as the trader's status increases. And the fundamental point is that when quantity finally transforms to quality, then it (this force) not only retreats, but the entire system of relations rises to a qualitatively different, higher level.
A kind of observation: This most qualitative transformation will happen precisely at the moment when the very idea of the goal will change - when the goal is not a worthy existence, but the freedom of choice (technical support) of further development. At that moment, this force will give up completely, because its "object of interest" (and competence) is only the trader (of different degree of development), who provokes the force into a levelling action:)
I think I'm beginning to see what kind of warm crowd this is all about. It's all over the 40s or far into the 40s.
Pure technology without an attitude to the subject is unlikely to get you off to a good start as a trader.
The system protects itself, it tests itself. (Again, lest it all seem mystical - you can think of the System of Finance as being a Golem (a self-organised mind taking care of its own safety)).
The phenomenon of quantifying a safe level of personal profit is poorly understood. People have long wondered - why some are poor and others are rich. They have set up experiments up to the point of giving away money. And what is it? -As in a leaky vessel.
For example, there was an idea to distribute sewing machines (200 USD) to poor women, with various materials and accessories so that they could sew for sale ... As a result, only 3% sewed for sale, while the rest, being unemployed, could not find time for this. The rest, being unemployed, did not find the time to do it.
Regarding trading - it turns out that you have to say thank you to your previous history and once again patiently mature, now as a financier.
"People go where the money goes. So a financier is closer to a manager than a technologist or physicist, closer to the political branch of government than to the engineering corps.
Somehow, I had to get my boy in after the physics department. I went to the master's program in economics, and the vice-rector told me in a forehead - this education is not suitable for us. I understood the literature and understood myself that the mathematics is completely different, and that I can hardly find any thinking in two years of graduate school. Other objects mean a different way of thinking, another way of representing and ... another position in relation to the Golem.
Technical support for the Golem may even be hostile. For the Golem, thinking is important, especially in the subcortex. If you teach other traders the same technical software, then maybe...