For those who are not programmers but have ideas for creating EAs, "dedicated to idea traders and programmers" - page 6
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Already the third page of hints is coming to an end :)
I'll give you a hint, you need one, don't you?
You say that:
---------------
... the best terms of the game I've ever encountered go like this: "OK, heads up, you get a ruble, but tails up, you lose a ruble"? Substituting it into the formula, I get:
fraction=((1/1+1)*0.5-1)*1/1=0
The classic confirms the intuitively obvious answer - you shouldn't invest in such a game.
---------------
Since you have encountered such conditions of the game, then answer the question - WHAT DOES THOSE WHO PROPOSED YOU THOSE CONDITIONS FROM THIS GAME?
If they offered it, it means they benefited, find their benefit, what is the problem?
I think you have two answers.
1 - You have incorrectly assessed and/or described the terms of the game, in which case it is an amateurish task to find an answer to a misconceived question.
2 - The interests of those who have offered you such terms are outside the realm of money interests (for example, a girl who just wants to spend time with you) :)
I'm silent about the fact that "the classics confirm the intuitively obvious answer," to the classics that something confirmed the existence of that very question, but as I do not see on the streets of cars with square wheels, and among the financial turnover I do not observe any tendency to zero, maybe it is in the "intuition"?
Maybe you don't need a hint, but a ready-made recipe?
Yes, I need a hint, because pages with "chain letters" about how one trader has not managed capital properly and lost everything, and the other has managed to become rich, do not give me any information. I would really like to hear a hint. Is your reasoning and the questions you are asking me a clue?
In my post, I expressed the opinion that money management is not applicable in coin cases, not applicable in roulette or similar situations where equal probability outcomes have equal rewards. First of all, you must have conditions, in which different rewards are equally likely to occur. The example with a potential profit of $2 and a potential loss of $1 with 50/50 outcomes is very good. All I need to know is where do I need to stand to get such bets?
Perhaps the traders described in your examples already have an instrument that has a 50/50 probability of winning twice as much as losing, but they are still losing their depo because they have no concept of proper money management. My situation is different, I understand money management, but the $2/$1 instrument at 50/50 is not so good. That's exactly what I asked for a hint about.
And the game of foul play is just for the sake of example.
By the way, this is a big problem because SK made the claim that a 50% probability of winning is an indicator of a losing game. Actually it is not so (the formula shows that there are other important factors, besides probability, such as size of potential profit and loss). For example, you can go into a casino and close all 37 numbers of European roulette with 1 chip each. After that, the probability of winning would be 100%, because the bets are made on all numbers. But the result will not be in the player's favor, because the dealer will return his winnings in the amount of 35 * bets and the bet itself. A total of 37 chips were staked and the payout for 100% winnings was only 36.
I get it, the factors are not insignificant. That's what I'm asking. Not the far-fetched example of the coin. Not about the negative example with roulette. But about the positive example, how to know in advance about the potential profit and loss at the trading terminal, and even such that the formula gives a positive result with them?
And the game of eagle-eye is just for the sake of example.
By the way, this is a big deal because SK made the claim that a 50% probability of winning is an indicator of a losing game. Actually it is not so (the formula shows that there are other important factors, besides probability, such as size of potential profit and loss). For example, you can go into a casino and close all 37 numbers of European roulette with 1 chip each. After that, the probability of winning would be 100%, because the bets are made on all numbers. But the result will not be in the player's favor, because the dealer will return his winnings in the amount of 35 * bets and the bet itself. A total of 37 chips were staked and the payout for the 100% winnings is only 36.
I get it, the factors are not insignificant. That's what I'm asking. Not the far-fetched example of the coin. Not about the negative example with roulette. But about the positive example, how sitting in front of the trading terminal you can know in advance about the potential profit and loss, and even such that the formula gives a positive result with them?
For example, take the wrong coin, which most often goes either heads or tails. No one can tell in advance which side this coin will fall in the next flip (unless it has two heads and two tails). Only after a long series of flips can the frequency (but not the probability) of one side or the other, and the confidence intervals, be calculated.
I get it, not insignificant factors. That's what I'm asking about. Not the far-fetched example of a coin. Not about the negative example of roulette, but about the positive example of how one can know in advance about the potential profit and loss in front of the trading terminal, so that the formula would give a positive result with them?
The last trade has just closed. You need to enter the lot size for the next trade.
You:
A. Increase the lot size.
B. Leave it as it is.
C. Decrease it.
________________
Practice is the criterion of truth. (C) Karl Marx.
We have an MTS state with manual MM: ++-++--++-++-++-----++----+++--+ (less than 30 trades, no stat value).
The last trade has just closed. You need to enter the lot size for the next trade.
You:
A. Increase the lot size.
B. Leave it as it is.
C. Decrease it.
No statistical significance - no system - no reason to believe in the decisions you make - no consistency in your actions - no profit - no motivation to participate in trading.
On the other hand all the statistics are based on past history, while it repeats itself according to more experienced professionals, but we don't know where, when and how, what should we do in such a case?
Already the third page of hints is coming to an end :)
I'll give you a hint, you need one, don't you?
You say that:
---------------
... the best game conditions I've ever seen go like this: "OK, heads you get a ruble, but tails you lose a ruble"? By adding it to the formula, I get:
fraction=((1/1+1)*0.5-1)*1/1=0
The classic confirms the intuitively obvious answer - it's not worth investing in such a game.
---------------
Since you met such conditions of the game, then answer the question - what do those who offered you such terms have to gain from this game?
If they offered it, it means they benefited, find their benefit, what is the problem?
I think you have two answers.
1 - You have incorrectly assessed and/or described the terms of the game, in which case it is an amateurish task to find an answer to a wrong question.
2 - The interests of those who have offered you such terms are outside the realm of money interests (for example, a girl who just wants to spend time with you) :)
I'm silent about the fact that "the classics confirm the intuitively obvious answer," to the classics that something confirmed the existence of that very question, but as I do not see on the streets of cars with square wheels, and among the financial turnover I do not observe any tendency to zero, maybe it is in the "intuition"?
Maybe what's needed is not a hint, but a ready-made recipe?
Yes, I need a hint, as pages with "chain letters" about how one trader didn't do proper capital management and lost everything and another did and got rich don't hold any information for me. I would like to hear a hint. Is your reasoning and the questions you ask me a hint?
In my post, I expressed an opinion that money management is not applicable in coin cases, not applicable in roulette etc situations where equal probability outcomes have equal rewards. First of all, you need to have conditions where different rewards occur with equal probability. The example with a potential profit of $2 and a potential loss of $1 with 50/50 outcomes is very good. All I need to know is where do I need to stand to get such bets?
Perhaps the traders described in your examples already have an instrument that has a 50/50 probability of winning twice as much as losing, but they are still losing their depo because they have no concept of proper money management. My situation is different, I understand money management, but the $2/$1 instrument at 50/50 is not so good. That's exactly what I asked for a tip on.
Secondly, why do you need a hint?
We have a MTS state with manual MM: ++-++--++-++-++-----++----+++--+ (less than 30 trades, no stat value).
The last trade has just closed. You need to enter the lot size for the next trade.
You:
A. Increase the lot size.
B. Leave it as it is.
C. Decrease it.
No statistical significance - no system - no reason to believe in the decisions you make - no consistency in your actions - no profit - no motivation to participate in trading.
On the other hand all the statistics are based on past history, while it repeats itself according to more experienced professionals, but we don't know where, when and how, what should we do in such a case?
Answering Cheshire's question, all other things being equal I am inclined not to make decisions based on profitability-loss of previous trades, because there is no additional information about the probability and potential amount of future profits or losses.
Suppose we have a system that produces trades with a 70% to 30% probability of profit/loss. It does not even matter if we know about it. Let there be a hundred profitable trades in a row before another decision is made. I tend to believe that the probability of the outcome of a future trade does not change, but remains the same - 70/30. Probability of outcome is an intrinsic property of MTS, and as long as the MTS remains unchanged, the probability of the outcome of the trade remains the same (as long as the coin is correct, it will fall 50/50 as long as it is not bent, undercut, etc.). In order to adjust lots "on the fly", I have to believe that MTS suddenly has "internal reserves" to increase (decrease) the favourable outcome, just based on previous performance. Or suddenly, after a series of successive losses, the market will condescend to me and give me a couple of profits? The same applies to MTS showing potential profit twice as many losses with equal probability. Previous trade results do not take anything away or add anything to MTS and therefore it will with equal success generate profits twice as many losses.
In my opinion, statistics are enough to convince us that there is no obvious statistical advantage in the market. I suppose it is possible to trade based on the properties of the market.
Already the third page of hints is coming to an end :)
I'll give you a hint, you need one, don't you?
...
First of all, the examples aren't mine, there's an author.
Secondly, why do you need a hint?
I need a hint so that I can apply proper money management. You promised to give it. If possible, with your specific example.
I believe that proper money management is a way of trading that allows you to make more profits with a particular system than without it, and the level of risk will increase less than the level of profit.
I cannot say that with proper MM there will be less losses and more profits. I will not give any examples, firstly, to explain it you have to explain the whole system, secondly, if I was completely satisfied with it, I would not be searching for a better solution.
As for the tip, do not confuse the soft with the warm, I have already said the coolest thing in trading - do not try to guess the entrance, do not waste time!!!!
Once you understand it, there are mountains of wasted time behind you, am I doing a bad thing?
Don't get me started and torture me, I don't know the universal formula for flipping one coin so that two fall backwards.
I believe that proper money management is a way of trading that allows you to make more profits with a particular system than without it, and the level of risk will increase less than the level of profit.
I cannot say that with proper MM there will be less losses and more profits. I will not give any examples, firstly, to explain it you have to explain the whole system, secondly, if I was completely satisfied with it, I would not be searching for a better solution.
As for the tip, do not confuse the soft with the warm, I have already said the coolest thing in trading - do not try to guess the entry, do not waste time!!!!
Once you understand it, there are mountains of wasted time behind you, am I doing a bad thing?
Don't get me started and torture me, I don't know the universal formula for how to flip one coin so that two fall backwards.
Ok. I got it. Thank you. (chuckles)