The fate of the world's currencies in the wake of the demise of the dollar. - page 87
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You think there are no prerequisites? No feasibility? No means?
If the dollar goes up again, that will be its last strengthening.Ha-ha. That's funny.
After Trump or even before, the dollar will embark on a global long term downtrend. Right now it only feels buying because of trade friction with China. But banks have already started replacing the quid with other currencies. And the dollar-bypassing calculations are ALREADY taking place.
Not a bad start... Don't get into trivialities, list in the same order, the prerequisites, the feasibility and the ways of replacing the dollar as the world's currency. Other currencies, what are we going to quote?
I'm getting ready to curl my fingers...
Not a bad start... Don't get into trivialities, list in the same order, the prerequisites, the feasibility and the ways of replacing the dollar as the world's currency. Other currencies, what are we going to quote?
Get ready to curl your fingers...
In yuan...
I'll remember that tweet :)
According to you there are no prerequisites? No expediency? There is no way?
If the dollar goes up again, that will be its last strengthening.Ha-ha. That's funny.
After Trump or even before, the dollar will embark on a global long term downtrend. Right now it only feels buying because of trade friction with China. But banks have already started replacing the quid with other currencies. And the dollar-bypassing calculations are ALREADY taking place.
And how does this happen, how does this substitution take place? Someone had an account in quid, they come for their money, and instead of quid they get tugriks?
What is the point of changing the accounts? Nobody bothers to keep the accounts in terms of the radius of the moon.
What will change? Wages will stop falling and prices will stop rising?
I am hilarious )) when are we going to switch to roubles and bolivars?
Если доллар ещё и подрастёт, то это будет его последнее укрепление.
Ahahaha, that's right at minute 3, second 2 it says so )))) The dollar is going up - it's a verdict!!!
https://youtu.be/wIiPAUkDDNk?t=184
But the banks have already started replacing the quid with other currencies.
So that's it... wow, banks are replacing the dollar with other currencies ))))) I wonder if the banks know about this?
And the dollar-exchange transactions are ALREADY taking place.
When the share of these settlements will be a significant percentage, then you can come and declare it as a significant fact, and now roughly speaking 2.5 wussies haggled with each other ... that's the end of the dollar )))))))))
However, in the short term the dollar is indeed slightly overvalued and probably a small correction will take place in 2019.
Не участвую в спорах в сети, на политические, нац-патриотическим, или конспирологические темы. На эмоциональном уровне мне абсолютно пофиг, что будет с долларом в будущем - будет он укрепляться или слабеть. Вот лично для меня главное спрогнозировать в какую сторону он будет двигаться, и желательно как можно точнее. Только, исключительно с этой целью я и пытаюсь моделировать его будущее. Звиняйте, но на коменты буду отвечать, только если увижу в них, хотя бы проблески здравой мысли. Из всех коментов, пока что такое заметил только у
vladzeit:
That is roughly what Unicornis also mentioned. In passing I wrote about the bottomless SEA domestic market, I can go a little deeper.
First, the market, the U.S. is not the entire planet, the U.S. GDP is just over 20% of world GDP, and the Chinese sell goods around the world. Of course if the US market begins to shrink for Chinese manufacturers it will be painful, but clearly not fatal. Especially since in any situation the cost of Chinese goods is lower, and in any scenario the Chinese manufacturers will have the advantage.
Secondly, about 80% of US GDP is generated by working for the domestic market.
That is, the U.S. economy, which was boosted by military orders and the post-war reconstruction of the world,
has become more and more oriented towards domestic demand. Something similar will now take place in China. Over the coming decades, the huge domestic market in Southeast Asia will become increasingly important to the Chinese. And perturbations in the outside world will not be as critical for them, although of course they will be very unpleasant.
So, I continue. In my previous posts I have promoted two thoughts, the first is that the rapid development of the economic zone in Southeast Asia will lead to the renminbi becoming a real competitor to the dollar as a reserve currency around 2026-28.
The second is that the chronic problems that the U.S. economy is experiencing at the moment are still being covered by the dollar's status, but over time, they will increase rapidly and the dollar's support will decrease rapidly. Clearly, at some point this will lead to a catastrophic development. I will now try to simulate how this will play out over time.