a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 136
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Recognition of all classical figures of technical analysis is not in my plans yet. It would be good to master elementary "channel", "trend up/down", "breakthrough", "correction".
I have a general idea of the principles of construction and system operation, as well as some ready-made fragments. It's just a matter of further detailing, specification and implementation.
I see that you have already enlisted yourself in the category of experts. There are too many signs of "the final word" in your wording. It seems a little premature to me. As you rightly point out, Forex is a more diverse thing in that sense, so it can be judged in such a straightforward way. Not to mention the intellectual capacity of human beings.
For that matter, a simple linear regression channel is statistically much better. See what is more reliable?
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This example immediately crosses out the point of the "Converging Triangle" pattern per se.
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Well, neural networks are most likely useful in areas where you can pre-calculate all possible combinations
You are arbitrarily going off topic and fighting windmills. I wasn't saying anything about neural networks, I wasn't comparing a pattern recognition strategy to, for example, the LR channel, and of course by patterns I didn't mean the classical idea of patterns at all. The only sense of my statement is that, in contrast to your point of view, the strategy of pattern recognition FULLY can be based on mathematical statistics.
Generally, the notion of image is so broad that to identify it with the patterns of thechanalysis is too crude a primitivization. In this case Olga only asked about the strategy of broken line pattern recognition. Believe me, polyline pattern recognition is a well and easily formalizable task. Parametrization of these images is more complicated, but also realizable. And the result of the parametrization are numerical estimates. This is what mathematical statistics works with. So there is nothing extraordinary in it. It is quite within the power of a creative person.
The question of whether there is enough history is another topic. And the answer depends on how adequately the images are defined and parameterized. For some schemes, 10 years of history will not be enough, while for another, 1 year will.
By the way, the LR channel is also one of the linear images. And you personally can only rely on it because the statistics show its NON-accidental appearance on the market. In the same way it can also show the non-random appearance of other images. The only problem is that these images are countless, and one only needs to find a few of the most effective ones. And there are no regular methods of searching, only "invented-checked". Under these conditions, of course, there is no speeding up.
IMHO: If you start with that, your whole life may not be enough to achieve results. Mathematics is for Forex, not the other way around. That's why you should take ready concepts and results from mathematics and apply them to build a strategy. If we take the concepts of tehanalysis, then the entire theory will have to be built from the beginning and on its own.
You are quite specific about broken line pattern recognition. This already contains an almost ready and clear statement of the problem. Maybe it would be better to start with it?
But a breakdown and a correction are not images, they are concepts. And these notions are absolutely vague! Of course, analysts and traders use them, but only because they are a lexicon. You have to communicate somehow. Try asking anyone what it is. No one will give you not only a constructive, but even a somewhat complete definition. And if they do come up with their own, others won't agree. You too can come up with your own definition, but the subjective approach is already a trap.
In principle, I was already given the following recommendation on the mech-matas forum http://lib.mexmat.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3254&sid=921267dfa8e6fe74ae1dbbd4baf5f5c6
It turns out that everything is that simple! :o) And the most interesting thing is that it can end up so that both sides will be right and the person who gave this recommendation is ALREADY an underground millionaire who made his fortune on this very recommendation! ;o). I also tried to play by this method in the early days of Forex, but the result was not very convincing. Probably not those quotes I looked at :o)?
PS: Yurixx, if you think that the tone of my statements is very provocative (final), then I apologize deeply. And may I add once again that the opinion I express is just my personal opinion, which makes no claim to anything and in no way forces anyone to listen to or follow it. So consider I automatically sign my IMHO under every post of mine, if that would be enough reason for you not to take everything so personally ;o). I just sometimes like to say something on a forum and hear what other people think about it, i.e. to get an outside view. That's all! Of course, I'm not pursuing any goals of advertising propagating my ideas among masses - why should I do that? Just - communication with competent people, which in fact, in the field of Forex, not so much.
Have you "introduced" robertinno to your advisor ? :-)
I wonder if he was able to "complement" your strategy with something useful ? :-))
Judging by this page, the forum is not very scientific. Accordingly, so are the recommendations.
Absolutely not. You have nothing to apologize for, you have not offended me or anyone else. Simply, as far as I understand, Olga has been on this case recently and she might have the impression that these paths have been followed before and they can't lead to anything. And we can't say that with certainty.
Well, of course I sent him the EA "to get acquainted" ;o), and I also gave him the keys to my flat and transferred all the money that I have available to me - just for the sole reason of the wording, that he "worked on the time series analysis for some time and probably could add something useful to this strategy" :o))))))))! I hope you understand what I mean by that? ;o)))
Naturally ! :-)))
I fully support that.
The more segments in a broken line, the more difficult it is to recognize and classify it. I do not pretend to solve the problem in general terms. My goal is to recognize the smallest possible segment of the broken line, which makes it possible to make a particular trading decision.
"There is a special chic about not following general rules. Everyone determines for themselves what the pattern is, where it begins and ends.
The possible lack of history can be partly compensated for by recognising several broken lines of varying degrees of detail derived from the same chart in parallel.
That's an excellent starting point. Totally agree.
And the length of the broken line is a great example for marginal estimates. If it is equal to zero, no analysis is possible. If it tends to infinity, the train has already left, you can retire. :-)
Obviously there is some optimal length, which gives both possibilities for analysis and, at the same time, not too much inertia and not too much analysis time.
Good luck.
Is such an approach to automated trading promising and feasible?
Start with Pesavento. For example, here :
http://forex.kbpauk.ru/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/16113/an/0/page/2#Post16113
Good luck and happy trends.