Strategies that give big profits - page 10
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2) But what you gave as a curve for how the deposit will grow is nonsense. That cannot even theoretically happen .....
In fact, such strategies are quite possible if you sell options far out of the money with leverage.
There are basically two problems:
1. No one will give a leverage of 1:100.
2. the lack of losing trades on history is just a reason to wonder if there is some unaccounted risk that, if realized, with epsilon% probability you will not be left without profit (flats, etc. for debts :D)
In fact, the expectation of profit remains zero, the distribution of returns has a huge negative slope, and losses are so rare and devastating that their average value and probability proves difficult to estimate.
And even that didn't help them kill the idea behind these robots. They stupidly stopped paying out money and started cancelling trades on history.
Let's test the viability of any of your strategies. I'll cancel all its profitable trades on history before withdrawing the money... how can you take this nuance into account when projecting ? :-)
What's the trick or the trick: you built a strategy on a line chart - DCs don't give away profitable trades... they can turn everything upside down with any strategy... and prove you're not a fool... they don't want to give them back... that's it... either you lose voluntarily or you don't get any... that's it...
What's not to press the button?! BUY - BUY, SELL - SELL)
In fact, such strategies are quite possible if you sell options far out of the money with leverage.
There are basically two problems:
1. No one will give a leverage of 1:100.
2) The lack of losing trades on the history - it just makes you wonder if there is an unaccounted risk that, if realized, with an epsilon% probability you will not be left without a profit (condo, etc. for debts :D)
In fact, the expectation of profit remains zero, the distribution of returns has a huge negative slope, and losses are so rare and devastating that their average value and probability are difficult to estimate.
In options maybe. I'm not strong in them. But here is a concrete example. Public trading, ATS championship in 2007. There are no options there like they are in MT still. Trading one currency pair. No averaging, overbidding, martin, etc. The robot I cited as an example (winwin2007) has perfectly straight equity curve, at least for the first 110 trades, until they started changing the quotation mode.
I would like to draw your attention especially to stop loss and TP set immediately at entry.
here is the first deal
'500432': instant order sell 5.00 EURGBP at 0.6977 sl: 0.6997 tp: 0.6975
It is clear that the stop loss is larger, but its value is only 20 pips and it will not be destructive to the account. A hundred such stops in a row will kill the account, but the equity curve says otherwise. He has an accurate market entry where the probability of getting a TP is several times higher than the probability of getting a stop loss (definitely more than 1:10). Therefore, the system MO is positive. The appearance of several consecutive stops is a sign of a change in the quoting. This condition is simply added to the robot and it stops trading.
You stop it, change its settings and start a new one.
It's an unimportant discussion... If before there was at least a graph of results (even if without figures), now there are no results either. Now there are emotions like "they were undressed like children", "they ran crying", "killed the idea", "stupidly stopped", etc. Such emotions are not proof of "survivability" of the system.Such emotions are not proof of the "survivability" of the system. The robot must be regarded as a part of the system, namely its technical part. And then there is the organisational part, which also requires a certain level of expertise ;)
If there is no result, it means that the system as a whole is not fulfilling the task.
Gentlemen, you are discussing a situation that happened 7 years ago. Go back to the present. Especially since the forex market has changed significantly since then (ECN accounts).
And such algorithms change the market significantly. And a trader in his right mind and mind will not use them. I see that you are observing this market very closely, can you bring me something similar that is working now. What would be in the public domain, that one could analyse trades, how the robot enters, exits, where it places a SL, where it takes profit?
To be honest, I don't believe in a 7-year-old strategy that remains profitable to this day. Especially in forex. :)
But you can check it yourself, for example on LMAX. ECN marketplace, exchange execution, pending orders inside spread, you put limiters in the market (you are liquidity provider), C#/C++/Java/FIX API. The site is in London, segregated accounts, FCA regulated. Entry is $10,000.
Try your algorithm. The results will be published.
And I haven't claimed anywhere that it still works (the robot is mine). If my algorithm worked until now, there would be no point in leaving. It works and let it work. I haven't traded forex for a long time now. I do not see the point in making the same mistakes for the hundredth time. The real exchange is much more comfortable.
And are you prepared to voice the principles of a trading system, ulot conditions can change by 180 degrees ? Here is an example: In mid-January the Swiss bank stopped holding the EURCHF at 1.2. The exchange rate dropped to 0.8. Can you explain the principle of the EURCHF trading strategy for 2014 and for this year ?
I can give you another example of a robot (or rather a strategy that changed the market). On forum 4 this strategy is described somewhere.
From my point of view it is the one that has influenced the fact that there are no lots in MT5 now and never will be.