Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 60
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Science begins and ends with existing facts.
No.
The facts are there - science is powerless over some known facts, even in history.
Science originated and gradually developed a long time ago, but it has not reached its peak. There are many dark spots in the current moment, and an abyss in undiscovered knowledge altogether.
Human behavior is more or less predictable and it is possible to make assumptions about its future behavior. This also applies to markets.
One should take into account many other factors that influence the markets. This is the availability of influence to any inhabitant of the earth by means of the Internet on the consciousness of large masses of the earth's population. But the physical laws will not play any role here, only the personality or the position in society.
Vladimir has a rational grain, but it can be used as a seed in the beak of a hen that is about to lay golden eggs. No offense, Vladimir, get it right.
Nothing to be offended about. What I want to understand is what my system lacks. Fundamentals can't predict anything except recessions. For example, Black Monday in 1987 was caused by the accumulation of short positions and automatic trading. There was no recession, but the market fell 34%. How do you predict that? By technical analysis? Again, who has a trading system that trades on the S&P500, tech analysis or fundamentals, show me the results for comparison.
There's nothing to be offended about. What I want to understand is what my system is missing. Fundamentals cannot predict anything except recessions. For example, Black Monday 1987 was caused by accumulation of short positions and automatic trading. There was no recession, but the market fell 34%. How do you predict that? By technical analysis? Again, who has a trading system that trades on the S&P500, tech analysis or fundamentals, show me the results for comparison.
With a TA or FA, you can guess the possibility of a recession, but you can only confirm the fact of the event by certain factors that confirm it. Already on history.
P.s.
Sorry for the platitudes.
After all, it is clear since childhood that the probability is always close to 1 to 2 but always a little worse than expected. Even in a life situation there is a spread.
...
After all, it has been clear since childhood that the probability is always close to 1 to 2 but always a little worse than expected.
I don't get it, probability of what? And what is 1 in 2?
I don't understand the probability of what? And what is 1 in 2?
50% Always mid-prediction. 1 in 2 = half or fiftieth.
I don't know how anyone predicts the market?
I have certain factors that can be digitised and then used in any programmes.
Then 50% will never be the same
50% Always mid-prediction. 1 to 2 = half or fiftieth.
If you mean the probability of predicting recessions is close to 0.5, not so. Asking any day what the probability is that there will be a recession in the future, the answer is always 1. Asking 1 year ago what is the probability of a recession tomorrow, the answer would have been 0, as a recession is defined by the decline in GDP, which cannot be predicted until the government announces quarterly GDP.
As for predicting the market, I agree that in the vast majority of cases the probability to go up or down is 0.5, unless we have information that a recession is coming and ask which is more likely: the market will go up 30% or down 30% in the next 12 months?
If you mean that the probability of predicting recessions is close to 0.5, it is not. Asking any day what is the probability of a future recession, the answer is always 1. Asking 1 year ago what is the probability of a recession tomorrow, the answer would have been 0, as a recession is determined by a decline in GDP, which cannot be judged until the government announces quarterly GDP.
About market prediction, I agree that in the vast majority of cases the probability to go up or down is 0.5, unless we have information that a recession is coming and ask which is more likely: the market will go up 30% or down 30% in the next 12 months?
Quarterly GDP is a lagging factor not only for historical analysis, but also for prospective analysis.
Covid19 could make a significant difference.
Would it make sense to find the industries that are primarily affected by the worsening economy and use their reported data as a leading indicator of the overall macro statistics?
Have you done such studies on the correlation between industries and impending recessions?
Would it make sense to find the industries that are primarily affected by the worsening economy and use their reported data as a leading indicator of the overall macro statistics?
Have you done such studies on the correlation between industries and impending recessions?
It can always be done and should be done.
Just find the right comparison with something.
It can always be done and should always be done.
Just find the right comparison with something.
The indicators depend on the sector, for example for services - profitability, but for production I would look at changes in finished goods inventories and work in progress, and stock renewal.