Machine learning in trading: theory, models, practice and algo-trading - page 440
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More precisely, I have received proof that the market is efficient at least with the data and MO methods available to the masses.
PS: "efficiency" - unpredictability, when the price takes into account all the information.
I thought the last supporters of an efficient market died in 2008, but, no, they're still alive.....
Efficient it is not because of the laws of physics/chemistry/biology but because there are players who have everything better, capital, education, personnel, technology, data, algorithms, etc. For them the market is NOT efficient, but they make it efficient, we have almost nothing left.
But they make it effective, there's almost nothing left for us to do.
We have to become them, learn and develop... and the most important thing is to understand absolutely clearly in our systems who takes money from whom and why not from you...
no book teaches that
Efficient it is not because of the laws of physics/chemistry/biology, but because there are players who have everything better, capital, education, personnel, technology, data, algorithms, etc. For them the market is NOT efficient, but they make it efficient, we have almost nothing left.
The market is NOT shaped by the players. Players are the ripples on a raging ocean. In the calm you can see the ripples, in the storm you can't.
The market is shaped by economics and politics. It reflects (must reflect) the real processes by which goods and services appear. Since we are dealing with a market economy, overproduction, recession, crisis... are part and parcel of it.
This market must be looked at as an objective reality and tried to simulate it as precisely as possible, for example with GARCH or mechanically searching for patterns, or both. If you manage to create an adequate model, then take money away from those who can't, make mistakes.
In classification models manage to pick predictors that are relevant to the target variable, again the same result - with money.
PS.
You can look for patterns with technical analysis methods as well. Some people seem to be able to do it, but it looks more like guessing by coffee grounds. But to each his own...
We have to become them, learn and develop... And the most important thing is to understand absolutely clearly in our systems who takes money from whom and why not from you...
no book teaches that
It's true, but it's a very long and thorny path, many will wince and become loaders and watchmen, and some will fail to endure the collapse of their hopes. But it's an interesting path, not like the office plankton...
The market is NOT shaped by players. Players are the ripples on a raging ocean. In the calm, the ripples are visible; in the storm, they cannot be seen.
The market is shaped by economics and politics. It reflects (must reflect) the real processes by which goods and services appear. Since we are dealing with a market economy, overproduction, recession, crisis are part and parcel of it...
You can look at this market as an objective reality and try to model it as precisely as possible, for example with GARCH, or mechanically search for patterns, or both. If you manage to create an adequate model, then take money away from those who can't, make mistakes.
In classification models manage to pick predictors that are relevant to the target variable, again the same result - with money.
GARCH is the same MO(ISC) to predict variance, the chips are price squares and past variance, GARCH is a good chip for further constructions, macroeconomic and news data are not used.
And the "main thing" is access to superfast data and "tips " from the top, which is very expensive and illegal.
It's true, but it's a very long and thorny path, many will wince and become longshoremen and watchmen, and some will sum up their lives without having to endure the collapse of their hopes. But it's an interesting path, not just an office plankton...
I completely agree...
I wish everyone to find what they're looking for and not to give up just before the finish line without seeing that it's already around the corner ...
I agree completely...
I wish everyone to find what he is looking for and not to give up just before the finish line without seeing that he is already around the corner...
Yes, everything is true, in fact a person needs only a beautiful dream to be happy, physically the quality of life of a person who has $2k a month income, is not very different from the life of someone who has $1M a month, I mean the real comfort of the body, probably in terms of health, they live better in villages, on self-support, or any jocks obsessed with their body and healthy diet.
But psychologically of course this is not the limit of aspirations, in our dreams we are billionaires, with their islands, planes, supermodels as girlfriends and friends, presidents and oligarchs. But these are motivational patterns created by culture, upbringing, media propaganda, etc. They are programs, not software, dreams, not body needs. Also self, and maybe even more, happy are believers, true believers, who take any torment as bliss, because no doubt later there will be "eternal paradise" and it does not matter whether there will be or not, they are NOW HAPPY, despite the physical discomfort, the goal is achieved, these torments as a sport.
It's the same with forex and stock trading, few of us will become a puppet, but many have already bought an option to become billionaires and are happy HERE AND NOW, the premium is paid immediately, because they are certain that the market can be beaten if at least one in the world has won (and how am I worse???), and therefore there is an ELEVENTION! And even death will not refute it, luck in the next life, at least!))
This is romantic and inspiring, but usually a man has a family, a wife, children, parents and the obligation to support them in nourishment and comfort, alas trusting in the next life is not acceptable, you need in this one, something to take away on a stable basis, or give up continuation of the race, for the dream, which in my opinion, too high price.
This is romantic and inspiring, but usually a man has a family, a wife, children, parents and the obligation to support them in nourishment and comfort, alas trust in the next life is not acceptable, you need in this one, something to take away on a stable basis, or to give up continuation of the race, for the dream, which in my opinion, too high price.