D1 price is on ranging market condition within primary bearish.
is located inside Ichimoku cloud above Sinkou Span A line which is
indicating the secondary ranging correction within primary bullish.
is ranging between 0.9238 support and 0.9286 resistance levels with primary bearish.
D1 price will break 0.9258 support level on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see ranging market condition.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-08-11 07:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Fischer Speaks]
2014-08-12 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
2014-08-13 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]
2014-08-13 05:30 GMT (or 07:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Industrial Production]
2014-08-13 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]
2014-08-14 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2014-08-15 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - PPI]
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.08.09 14:33
newdigital, 2014.08.11 12:00
AUDUSD for Monday, August 11, 2014 (based on seekingalpha article)
The Australian dollar is trading in a very small trading range
between 0.9270 and 0.9280 after dropping so sharply in to finish out
last week from above 0.9350 down to a two week low at 0.9240. In the
middle of last week the Australian dollar surged higher to a one week
high near 0.9375, before easing back and then falling sharply. It had
done well of late to cling onto the 0.93 level after its sharp fall last
week which saw it move from above 0.9400 down to a seven week low just
below 0.9300, and in more recent days receive solid support there too. A
couple of weeks ago it was easing back below both the 0.9425 and 0.9400
levels with the former providing some resistance. The Australian dollar
reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 a few weeks ago after it
enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance
level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back
towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher
reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to
return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week.
the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to
break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its
best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to
stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above
0.95. After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first
couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level
around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one
week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent
surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a
couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at
0.9220. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as
it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat
Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar
drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month
high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before
falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very
significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The
Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has
illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this
year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did
very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although
at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week
low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar
surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before
consolidating for a week or so.
newdigital, 2014.08.09 15:00
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar extended its recent declines over the past week
on the back of broad-based risk aversion and disappointing domestic
data. Heightened geopolitical turmoil sapped demand for the
high-yielding currency as traders flocked to the perceived safety of
the Yen and US Dollar. Additional pressure was put on the currency
following an unexpected jump in the local unemployment rate to a 12
Looking ahead, if we see tensions surrounding the Middle East or
Ukraine escalate, the Aussie could face further weakness in the
short-term. However, we have witnessed several flare-ups of
geopolitical tensions in recent months, which have failed to leave a
lasting impact on the currency. This suggests that if the swell settles
from the most recent storm of volatility, the currency may be afforded
some breathing room.
Consumer and business confidence figures are the only noteworthy
pieces of domestic data on the calendar over the coming week. The
leading indicators for the health of the local economy have reflected
some resilience in recent months, yet remain subdued. Another
lackluster set of readings would further reinforce the need for highly
accommodative RBA policy to remain in place.
Despite recent local data softening the Reserve Bank is likely to
retain its preference for a ‘period of stability’ for rates over the
near-term. Based on recent rhetoric from the Board it would take a
material deterioration in incoming economic indicators to re-open the
door to rate cuts. At the same time, policy tightening is likely to be
delayed. Indeed swaps-implied expectations for rates slipped back into
negative territory over the past week. This does little to raise the
carry appeal of the currency and leaves the Aussie in a precarious
Upcoming Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data will also
be on the radar for Aussie traders. Incoming data from the Asian giant
has been relatively positive on balance, which has eased concerns over
a deceleration in economic growth. If the next week’s figures continue
this recent trend it could ease some of the selling pressure facing
AUDUSD is drawing closer towards the 92 US cent handle, which has
been a line in the sand for the pair since late March. If broken, it
would set the stage for a sustained decline to the
psychologically-significant 0.9000 handle. Refer to the US Dollar outlook for insights into how the USD side of the equation may influence the pair.
newdigital, 2014.08.12 10:13
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early
signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and
Australia Business Confidence Climbs In July
An index measuring business
confidence in Australia touched a four-year high in July, the latest
survey from National Australia Bank revealed on Tuesday - showing a
score of +11.
That's up from +8 in June.
The index for business conditions came in with a score of +2, rising from +2 in the previous month.
the individual components of the survey, home construction, retailing,
sales, profitability and employment all showed improvement in July, the
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.08.12
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 : 19 pips price movement by AUD - NAB Business Confidence news event
newdigital, 2014.08.12 15:37
AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar has
resumed its descent in recent trading with an absence of bullish
reversal signals casting doubt on the potential for a recovery. This
sets the Aussie up for a make-or-break moment as it drifts towards its
range-bottom at 0.9210. A daily close below the nearby barrier would
pave the way for a sustained decline to the 0.8990 mark.
Test of 0.9210 To Offer Make-Or-Break Moment:
newdigital, 2014.08.13 06:21
[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.08.13
AUDUSD M5 : 16 pips price movement by AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment news event
newdigital, 2014.08.10 18:14
newdigital, 2014.08.13 15:12
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity
U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Flat In July
Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly came in unchanged in the month
of July, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on
The Commerce Department said retail sales were
virtually unchanged in July after edging up by 0.2 percent in June.
Economists had been expecting another 0.2 percent increase.
a modest drop in auto sales, retail sales inched up by 0.1 percent in
July compared to a 0.4 percent increase in the previous month.
AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
newdigital, 2014.08.14 06:44
Structural changes in the Australian economy pose a risk for AUDUSD (based on tradingfloor article)
A chart showing the long term history of the terms of trade is shown
below. The move up in the last decade was spectacular, peaking in
2010/2011 in line with the top in commodity prices. It’s no coincidence
that AUDUSD also reached its high at 1.1080 in July 2011 and, in
sympathy with the terms of trade, has been declining ever since.
Another factor that kicked in around the same time the terms of trade
were peaking was a decline in the interest rate differential in favour
of the AUD. The global “reach for yield” after the introduction of
quantitative easing in the US, has seen the spread between Australian
and US bond yields decline from 250 to 100 basis points. Almost 70
percent of Australian government bonds outstanding are held by offshore
The RBA has kept its policy interest rate at a record low of 2.50
percent for the last year, trying to encourage the non-mining economy to
fill the gap being left by the fading resources boom. The central bank
seems unconcerned that one of the areas this is showing up is in
dwelling investment, spurred on by a strong housing market. This is
because there is little evidence of domestic inflationary pressures in
the rest of the economy and conditions in the labour market remain
subdued with low wage growth, spare capacity and an elevated
unemployment rate. This restraint on domestic costs has helped to offset
the effects of the depreciation in the exchange rate over the last
couple of years. Even so, the Consumers Price Index is up at the upper
limit of the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3 percent. However, the RBA
expects the counteracting forces of subdued domestic costs and a lower
currency will mean inflation remains consistent with its target range.
newdigital, 2014.08.14 14:23
Aussie Posts Gains as US Retail Sales Soften (adapted from marketpulse article)
Australian data has enjoyed a strong week. On Wednesday,
Westpac Consumer Sentiment climbed 0.8%, its strongest gain since
October 2012. Stronger consumer confidence often translates into
increased consumer spending, a key component for economic growth. Wage
Price Index, an important gauge of inflationary pressure, dropped to
0.6%, short of the estimate of 0.8%. Earlier in the week, NAB Business
Confidence and HPI posted strong gains.
Further levels in both directions: