A-B-C-D Trade - page 233
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SPX500 4-Hour chart, with MurreyMath1.0 and RSI divergence indicator.
The indicator #ind_DivPeakTroughRSI_SW_v1-2 (DPTRSI) is set on 4-period to conform with BAJA Divergence setting.
We disabled the colors for reverse (also called hidden) divergence. That would be Col_Peak_1 and Col_Trough_1.
In other word we don't want to see those signals, only the regular divergence.
We numbered the 6 signals.
We have the Ichimoku indicator with the 3 MAs turned off (color disabled). Remember that divergence is often counter trend. Therefore use of the Ichimoku in this example is for the S&R at the cloud edges.
1) Aug 11th 08:00 BUY - comes after a large down move, but is not at the Aug 8th 00:00 bottom pivot, making it an unorthodox signal. It is at the 78.6% retrace level of B-C swing.
2) Sept 1st 12:00 SELL - indicator did not trigger at Aug 31st 12:00 peak, which is reason we like naked eye. That peak was at also at the Moon 135 and just below the Mars 225.
3) Sept 13th 16:00 SELL - at Ichimoku cloud and Moon 180. Short 2-3 candle move lasted until MML 5/8th (green).
4) Sept 20th 00:00 BUY - not lowest dip. Should have been the Sept 19th 12:00 candle, which was at red MML 6/8th. Also support at Mars 90 and Moon 135.
Move up went to next MML 7/8th (gold) and Mars 180.
5) Sept 26th 04:00 BUY - not at lowest dip, and near MML 4/8th. Naked eye would have picked Sept 23rd 08:00 candle. That was a Friday, therefore some traders would not hold over weekend.
Move ascended to red MML 6/8th, where Moon 45 and Mars 90 resides.
6) Sept 26th 08:00 SELL - came shortly after signal #5, and at MML 5/8th (green). That may have spooked trader into exiting trade from signal #5.
Moon 315 and Mars 0-degree there at entry.
***
Conduct "search this thread" to find indicators for download.
Update on our previous post when this pattern triggered on the ZUP v86.
Price hit a Mars line per last post, and bounced down about 6.50. It has now made an push up to a major trend line automatically generated by the ZUP. It is based on the lows of Swings X and B.
We aligned the fib channel tool with the Point D and pulling up to that trend line. We now have 31.4 levels going in both directions for S&R.
To get the slope correct for the FC, we aligned the lead line to the trend line first. We then positioned that line to Point D. Next, we pulled the 2nd line of plot up to the location of the trend line.
Price will decline from this trend line as a bounce, especially since it is end of the U.S. session.
The move from the ZUP BUY signal was from 1074 (Point D) to 1147 (trend line). That's a gross gain of 73.00.
Tom Demark being interviewed now on bloomberg, called bottom this some time ago.
Today are 2 Central Bank decisions:
11:00 BOE
11:45 ECB (expected to lower interest rate 25 basis points)
****
Last night Moody's lowered Italian credit rating 3 notches.
A French bank in big trouble with exposure to PIIGS debt. Rumors of a French watch and/or downgrade in the near future.
****
Hats off to the great and iconic Steve Jobs as he heads to the big internet in the sky.
BOE and ECB left rates unchanged, as officially forcasted. Pres Obama speech now on jobs bill.
Attached is updated SPX500 4-hour Bullish Butterfly. We added Andrew's Pitchfork (APF). Plot: 9-07 20:00/ 9-16 12:00/9-12 12:00.
Added AML for interior fibs, and MurryMath1.0 (MML).
We mentioned the fib channel (FC) alignment to the 1) X-B lows and 2) 9-23 12:00 low.
Price moved up after marking the 161.8 extension of the pattern (Point D). Resistance met at the FC -31.4, and then at upper FC, which intersected AML's Upper_ML2.
Price now at MML 5/8th (green), and near upper fork. When applying a 2nd FC pulled from lower channel to upper channel (reverse of 1st plot), current price at the 31.4 fib, We'll let you make that plot.
Attached is a EUR/USD Bullish Butterfly that was far from the perfect Carney pattern. We'll not overlay that perfect pattern, but you can go to harmonicpatterns.com to see them.
What we want to illustrate again, is how to manipulate it for our use.
The FC's first line is first aligned to X & B lows (trendline produce there by ZUP) to acquire the slope/angle. We then grab the middle dot of that line and pull it up to Point B.
The 2nd line of plot is now positioned to the X-B trendline. Now we have expansion levels going downward.
The ZUP generates 3 trendlines (TL), mouse over labels. Here are simple descriptions:
Upper TL is X-B
Lower TL is the 100% expansion of A-B
The Middle TL is 50% between the Upper and Lower TL.
We mentioned pullbacks during the last couple of days. They were at the resistance provided by the Lower TL.
Price made a hit to the upper fork line, as defined in the previous post, marking 1162.
Any short here has S/L option at FC 61.8 (blue) of approx. 1166.
This peak is also a 138.2 horizontal extension (1160) based on Low/High of 1112.50/1146.90 (plot not shown).
Here is a 15-min, with fibs. Hit to upper fork price of about 1162.
Retrace fib plot: Low = 1134.90 High = 1161.90
23.6 = 1155.50 (just hit during 18:30 candle period. For +6.00)
Instead of trying to follow the knee-jerk reaction to today's events (Central Bank Rate Decisions and Obama Speech), a trader can wait in the weeds.
Similar to the SPX bounce trade, here's EUR/USD outlining an opportunity on a split-screen.
To our left is a Moonflower chart update. Top yellow line is FC aligned to the Moon 180-degree. The hit during the 18:00 hour was at the intersection of Moon 180 and Mars 0-degree (red).
The chart on the right is a 15-min with session colors and horizontal fibs. Price made a 138.2 extension based on plot:
High = 15:00 1.34321 and Low = 16:45 1.33887
(sometimes referred to as B-C swing).
Retraced about 50% at 18:30, and we are near end of the U.S. session. About 20 net pips on this quickie bounce trade.
Continuance of our 1-hour chart, last shown after 10-4 hit to FC200. ALso on split-screen is PSQ9 levels.
The upper Ichimoku cloud acted as support, along with FC 138.2 and FC 161,8, and even through tight consolidation 10-5 to 1-6. Horizontal 127.2 as resistance, and MML 7/8 as support.
Hit to FC 261.8 pulled back violently and hit support at FC100. This level as support still in effect, as price attempting to drop below clouds.
The chart on the right with PSQ9 illustrates the hit to the FC 261.8 as being at the intersection of the Moon 270 and Mars 90-degree lines.
Oct 6th 12:00 candle period high = .93107 (SELL Entry)
TP1 = MML 8/8th .92773 for +33 pips
TP2 = Horizontal 127.2 (white) .92487 for + 61 pips
TP3 = MML 7/8th .92163 for +95 pips
Mars 0 and Moon 180 intersection = .92120
Current support is the FC 31.4 based on plot using Mars 90 pulling down to Mars 0-degree (pink).
Here’s the George Harrison song “While My Guitar Gentle Weeps”, performed live by his son and many stars....in which we dedicate to Steve Jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifp_SVrlurY&feature=autoplay&list=FL9jH4la07daTt_wr2OO3JRQ&lf=my_favorites&playnext=5
or google the song title and Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rj4J6i_vw0w&list=PLC183DB9FB48D82D5&index=30
or google song title and Concert for George
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELOe3f-hihc&feature=autoplay&list=PLC183DB9FB48D82D5&lf=autoplay&playnext=3
or google: My Sweet Lord - Concert for George (High Quality)
****
Attached is a daily chart on US30, which is a CFD that tends to mimic the Dow 30 Futures. We have the MurreyMath1.0 (MML) and AstroIndicator4 (A4).
A4 setting islatitude = true. The reading on this indicator can be seen on the left side data window. It’s plotted into the future.
We plotted fib channel, pulling down from MML +2/8th to +1/8th (pink).
The blue arrows point to SELL signals based on criteria:
A4 peak, and RSI(4) 80/20 for overbought/oversold. Must also be at or near a MML level, otherwise must wait a little (such as 4th signal).
1st signal SELL: May 1st entry (12,840) after previous day hit the MML +1/8th, registering peak on A4 and RSI(4) above 80.
The 2 yellow lines above the entry are the 31.4% (12,908) for S/L and 40% (12,935) which includes cushion.
The pink arrow points to the next A4 turn at the end of Apr 13th. This simply means that if we believed there may be another turn, it can be time to exit trade. Price was 12,592 at close of that day. This is a conservative way to look at a “time” factor.
The RSI(4) registered 38, and therefore still well above the oversold level of 20. That doesn’t mean it won’t turn, as these O/B O/S indicators can always have exceptions. We won’t discuss retrace fibs in this example chart.
Risk = 95
Reward = 248
R/R Ratio = 2.6:1
2nd signal BUY: The A4 maxed dip on June 9th.The Sunday 12th was the 2nd leg of a BAJA bullish divergence and closer to the MML 6/8th. Entry next candle June 13th 11,937.
S/L options include below MML 6/8th and below FC 314.2. For the more conservative level described in the 1st signal, whip out your trusty FC tool. Plot from MML 5/8th, pulling up to MML 6/8th. Just below the -31.4% of 11,774.
On June 21st, fibo fan (June 1st high) had it’s 61.8 ray (12,597) intersect the FC cluster, FC 200 downward plot, and FC 100 upward plot, for TP1. This preceded the next A4 turn, for conservative exit and +660 points.
3rd signal SELL: after July 7th registered its peak on A4, the July 8th reached a high of 12,773, just shy of the MML +1/8th 12,813. Trader must weigh risk/reward based on this entry level.
4th signal SELL: the July 22nd hit (12,799) to the MML +1/8th (12,812) occurred 2 days after the next A4 turn/peak. That entry was a Friday and price gapped down at open of following week.
Once again, employing the time factor of the next A4 turn, we draw a line on Aug 3rd. The previous candle closed right on the FC 314.2 (yellow), marking price of 11,829, for +970 points.
A couple of days later, S&P downgraded the long-term U.S. debt, and the Dow plunged.
5th signal SELL: The A4 apex was scheduled for Aug 30th. The previous candle closed above RSI(4) 80. The Aug 30th candle hit the MML 5/8th price of 11,563, probing above the next day to 11,713.
Switch chart to a 4-hour interval. 11,429 was lowest price printed, for +134 points.
Thereafter, price a hit the S/L above, at the -FC 40.
These are suggestions and each individual should research and analyze their own preferences.