A-B-C-D Trade - page 111
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Here's 30-Min GOLD BAJA bearish divergence signal (1st chart). These are GMT+2 charts, but I'll mention GMT times for reference.
The 16:30 candle had divergence as 2nd peak. The 2nd chart shows 15-min trigger entry with EFT at open of 19:00 candle price $1367.40.
Plot retracement fibs from 14:15 low $1349.50 to high $1368.90, to produce fib exit levels of 38.2 = $1361.50 and 50% = $1359.00
This was nice R/R as S/L was tight just above $1369.00 plus spread/cushion.
Trading to 38.2% = R/R $6/$3 or 2:1
Trading to 50% = R/R $8/$3 or 2.7:1
R/R not incl spread.
Long trade but well worth it. Use alarms or tag-team partner. The BAJA divergence signal works great with Gold. I'll post some general stats from Jan.
EUR/USD testing 50% fib 1.3677 (based on low of yesterday's Euro session) and bottom of LSMA channel line. This area also the 45-degree level on GANN_SQ9 of 1.3684.
Considering it is 07:00 GMT, with some data ahead at 08:15 (CHF), we should use utmost caution and allow market to set first as some Asian session traders exiting.
CHF CPI missed projections for both monthly and yearly figures. This is bullish for USD.
EUR/USD support 1/3628, 1.3609
USD/CHF should revisit .9660 top, where bounce can fetch some pips.
USD/JPY testing previous high 82.71, which is FE100. USD very strong but other pairs pulling back.
09:00 ECB Monthly Report had verbiage that seems negative EURO, at least for moment. "Downside risk to growth". Why is this a surprise? Austerity programs = hit to GDP.
Gold followed EUR/USD and EUR/JPY down after CHF data.
USD/JPY probed to FE 127 and bounced, now at trendline support. BAJA Bearish divergence on 30-min 09:00 candle.
AHEAD of BOE at 12:00, GBP/USD made a 100% retrace from highs and bounced off previous 2 days' Euro session lows 1.6026/31 for +20 pips thus far..
Attached EUR/JPY before and after pictures with fib arc applied. More on this and other pairs in a moment.
Feb 10th
Data was released for CHF 08:15, EUR & GBP 09:00-09:30, and GBP BOE 12:00.
The missed consensus figures for Swiss CPI enhanced USD strength.
EUR/USD
While on sidelines for early European due to CHF CPI, we waited for pivot after initial reaction broke Asian Low of 1.3666. Meanwhile, we had to determine where to plot Point A for the ABC. Switching to the 15-min chart and applying the HAS produced a visible pivot at 03:00.
The pullback occurred during more data and made a 38.2% retracement to 1.3652 by 10:30. With looming BOE rate decision and verbiage at 12:00, we had to let things play out. We can take the safe route and wait for break of Point B, for possible extension to the regular 138.2 (about same as FE 100) 1.3575.
After an initial tug-o-war, EUR/USD eventually chopped its way to the target at 15:00 for about 40 gross pips.
Flip back to the 30-min chart and we can see a BAJA bullish divergence signal by the 15:00 candle. 16:00 BUY entry triggered off 15-min EFT at 1.3599 got to the 23.6% fib for + 38 gross pips.
USD/JPY
After a small extension during the Asian session, we needed to reset the fibs. Once again, applying the HAS allows us to see swings better. Low = 23:00 82.32 and High = 09:15 82.77.
A 38.2% pullback by 11:00 was followed by BOE and a gap up reaction to positive U.S. jobless claims data at 13:30.
In cases like this, we can see the market blow by a fib, in this case the regular 161.8 of 83.05, without much interest in a bounce. Overshot to 83.15 back down to 82.97, before resume strong upswing.
The regular 200% extension did hold at 83.22 at end European session, and produced a bounce back down to the regular 161.8. The was also a 13:30 30-min BAJA bearish divergence that shaved off 15 gross pips.
At time of writing, late New York price action rising to 83.34, just ahead of 138.2 price of 83.36 based on updated plot.