A-B-C-D Trade - page 235
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As mentioned with the Shaker trade instructions, when the Mars lines start the week at or very close to the Moon lines, we won't see them cross.
When we look back to May, this is the case, and this period last a long time, several weeks/months.
To solve this, we inverted things, by adding 45-degree Mars intervals. A template is attached for EUR/USD and similar pairs with 5-digits.
Just remember, when placing stop-loss, to use a 90-degree interval in generating the -31.4%. It's -40% inclusive of cushion. In other words, this includes measuring from the Moon 45-degree to the Moon 135-degree levels.
Obviously, you need to download the indicator and accompanying files from the developer's site, as detailed in our recent post with the Moonraker trade.
Shaker GBP/USD 1-Hour
Date Time B/S
4/6/2011 13:00:00 B
4/13/2011 22:00:00 Too Choppy
4/27/2011 14:00:00 B
5/5/2011 14:00:00 B Loss
5/12/2011 17:00:00 S
5/19/2011 3:00:00 S
6/17/2011 7:00:00 B
7/5/2011 18:00:00 B
7/12/2011 10:00:00 B
7/27/2011 18:00:00 B
8/27/2011 16:00:00 S
8/25/2011 13:00:00 B Loss
9/1/2011 1:00:00 B Loss
9/7/2011 20:00:00 S
9/15/2011 13:00:00 S
9/19/2011 13:00:00 B
9/26/2011 12:00:00 S
10/6/2011 8:00:00 S
W = 14
L = 3
Win % = 82%
SHAKER OS Trade
Let’s take it to the next level. This version of the Shaker trade enters at the overshoot of the Moon/Mars intersection, which normally is limited to -31.4%.
Automatic or manual entry at the -25%, with stop-loss at -40% is one strategy.
That will be a risk of 15% of the pip distance between 2 Moon lines. If that distance at onset is 120 pips, then 15% = 18 pips risk. Add extra for any spread (SELL trades)..
Employing a conservative take-profit (TP) would be to target the +31.4 level.
Distance is -25% to +31.4 = 55.4% total. Multiply 120 pips X 55.4% = 66 pips reward.
R/R ratio = 3.6:1
Since the channels slope upwards, reward/risk will change. BUY positions are better, as the S/L will shrink and TP grow, en route up. SELL positions will see S/L grow and TP shrink, as channel advances upward. Keep SELL positions for short periods.
Let’s analyze being selective and only taking these trades 10 times per month, across different currency pairs. Injecting a win percentage of 67% and a R/R of 3:1, here are results.
Account = $25,000
Max Risk = 1.5% (one and one-half percent)
R/R = 3:1
Number Of Trader Per Month = 10
Win Ratio = 67%
Net Month = $6,300
Net Year = $75,600
ROI = 302% (not compounded, before tax)
Other advantages include:
Being able to have the date and time of cross, days in advance.
Trade only one day per week, if desired.
If one currency pair does not hit the cross, another pair may hit.
Keeping risk per trade low, allows multiple positions in different pairs.
Can automate by using a trend line EA.
Can use a trend line alert, such as the Chin Breakout.
Very conservative set of assumptions.
Essentially trading from band -31.4 to +31.4.
Can withstand low win percentage, and still come out net positive:
At above criteria, 40% win ratio still gains 108% annually.
Other notes:
We look at the 1-Hour charts.
Devise window, such as 3 or 4 hours before and after “dead center” of intersection.
Overshoot must be during the approach thrust, not several hours after dead center.
OS is an abbreviation for overshoot....or something else if you stop-out by a couple of pips.
Some examples, date/pair/time/reward-risk ratio:
9-29 EUR/AUD 16:00 SELL 3:1
9-26 14:00 SELL 3.3:1
9-23 11:00 SELL (Loss)
9-19 18:00 SELL 3:1
9-15 13:00 SELL 3:1
9-01 01:00 SELL (LOSS)
8-25 EUR/USD 14:00 BUY 3.2:1
8-10 EUR/USD 06:00 BUY 3:1
9-29 EUR/CAD13:00 BUY 3:1
Shaker
Optional to add Moon lines in 45-degree intervals (45, 135, 225, 315).
*********
Last intersection was at 12:00 GMT Friday Oct 6th.
Attached is a split-screen containing, from upper left and rotating clockwise:
GBP/USD SELL arrow is at 10:00. We added the Moon 135 and that caught the bounce up after the 11:00 candle closed (yellow arrow). We can see the overshoot hit the -31.4%....precisely. Large gain to upside thereafter.
EUR/USD Added Moon 45, and BUY after 12:00 candle overshot to -31.4. Large gain to upside thereafter
USD/JPY The 09:00, 10:00, and 11:00 candle lows all hit area of intersection. Gain to the +31.4, and in consolidation to end week.
AUD/USD Shown in 15-min, 11:00 bounce up gain to 31.4. A 2nd opportunity was off the Moon 225 where the12:00 candle hit. Large move to upside thereafter.
The 3 USD pairs move in tandem, and all successful of the 12:00 pivot at a 45-interval Moon line.
************
THIS WEEK'S intersection comes early on Monday Oct 10th, about 08:00. Up to each individual to take early hits or not.
In the case where we look for an overshoot, the precise time is less of a concern. We'll focus on the overshoot to the 31.4.
It's about 06:30 GMT. Monitoring following pairs:
GBP/USD possible Shaker SELL and/or overshoot of Mars 180/Moon 135 intersection. Pair is current at the Mars 180.
EUR/CAD same, but aspects are Mars 0/Moon 135.
AUD/USD same, aspects are Mars 225/Moon 0
SPX500 rose above but now sitting on Mars 45/Moon 180
EUR/USD peak was at last week's Moon 180 level. Right now facing support at this week's Moon 135.
AUD/USD at last week's Moon
Not at dead center of intersection yet.
Pic taken 06:55.
That pop up on EUR/USD attributed to sound bits from Merkal/Sarkozy. They have another plan and..."this time its serious".
GBP/USD short at Mars 180/Moon 315, along with EUR/USD which has slightly overshot. SPX500 also showing signs of SELL.
EUR/CAD and AUD/USD up against last week's Moon.
Adjustment to last posted EUR/USD SDC plot, now low-to-low:
Oct 4th 07:00 and Oct 6th 12:00
Friday saw hit to upper channel, and plunge down to lower channel after NFP.
Now, pair near upper channel and MML 6/8th.
Back to PSQ9 Shaker chart. Price just hit -31.4 of 1.35493 and bounced. Let's see if technicals override headline statement/news.
EUR/USD continued its rise on the back of aforementioned headline.
Now 09:00 and at intersection Mars 90 and Moon 225, which still constitutes being in window.
GBP/USD made hit to -31.4.
AUD/USD at -25
Some USD pairs regaining a little ground as euphoric pop up from Merkozy wearing off.
EUR/CAD hit Mars 45/Moon 180 intersection at 09:10 and immediately bounced down to its +31.4 (within 2 pips), marking 1.3940 during 09:15.
AUD/USD bounced off -25 to intersection where it lies now.
GBP/USD bounced off -31.4 but probably tied to EUR/USD, which is trying to retrace from intersection and SDC upper channel.
SPX has no direction, while at intersection.