Trader456's trading ideas - page 8

New comment
 

AUDUSD moving upwards

AUDUSD gained after commodities prices rose and traders bet the decline in the past month is overdone. Rising commodities prices will continue to provide support for this AUD crosses.

My system has continued to signal buy for AUDUSD.

I had placed working order to buy 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8670

Place a stop level at 0.8570

 

Double-top formed for USDJPY

Fear in the financial market has strengthen Yen, at the same time USD has changed its direction from strong to weak.

Double-top formed for USDJPY on the hourly chart.

Shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 108.44

Stop level at 109.49

Target level at 107.00

 

I believe the bull run from commodities is not over, this will provide support to AUDUSD.

My trading system has signaled buy for AUDUSD.

Bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8678

Stop level at 0.8578

Target level at 0.8790

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Bought AUDUSD at 0.8678

 

Bearish on New Zealand dollar

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates for the first time in 5 years on 24 July 08. Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported that economic activity is likely to remain weak over the remainder of 2008.

Retail sales had fallen by the most in 4 years and consumer confidence hitting record lows, the New Zealand dollar has weakened to the lowest level in 6 months.

RBNZ Governor Bollard promising more rate cuts and the futures curve pricing such action, the New Zealand central bank has become the most aggressively dovish policy maker of the G10.

Further weakness is expected in NZD and for it to fall below 66 cents against the US dollar before end of September.

NZDUSD tends to fall when daily stochastic shows oversold.

Chart: https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forexandbinary.com/2008/08/bearish-on-new-zealand-dollar.html

 

The Big Mac Index was introduced by The Economist in September 1986 as a humorous illustration and has been published by that paper annually since then.

See Wikipedia on the details on Big Mac Index.

According to Wikipedia, the Big Mac was chosen because it is available to a common specification in many countries around the world, with local McDonald's franchisees having significant responsibility for negotiating input prices.

Basically this index measures the cost of big Mac across different countries. Trader can base on this index to measure which currency is undervalued and which currency is overvalued.

According to Big Mac Index for this year, the most undervalued currency is Chinese Yuan, it is undervalued by 49%. The 2nd most undervalued currency is Japanese Yen, it is undervalued by 28%.

The overvalued currencies are the European currencies, EUR is 55% overvalued, Swiss Franc is 65% overvalued.

So base on the Big Mac Index, the ideal FX strategy is to short EUR/JPY.

Details: Investment News Update: Big Mac Index

 

On Monday I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 109.53, stop level at 11.46, target level at 108.20. Details here.

Triple top is formed in the hourly chart, looks like the uptrend is over for this cross.

USDJPY is now trading at 108.72, up 99 pips, profit is US$85.21.

My system has signal SELL for USDJPY since it was trading at 109.60, and it is still signal SELL now.

If you are interested to know the details of my trading system, send an email to me at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

Chart: https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forexandbinary.com/2008/08/usdjpy-profit-up-99-pips.html

 

On Monday I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 109.53, stop level at 11.46, target level at 108.20.

USDJPY is now trading at 108.20, up 108 pips, profit is US$88.15.

My system has signal SELL for USDJPY since it was trading at 109.60, and it is still signal SELL now. So I lower my target price from 108.20 to 107.50.

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: USDJPY profit up 108 pips

 

Yesterday I had shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962, stop level at 0.7080, target level at 0.6766. Details here.

Today Australia central bank had cut its interest rate by a quarter point to 7%, causing AUDUSD to plunge down, and dragged NZDUSD down as well.

Currently NZDUSD is trading at 0.6842, profit is up 138 pips, US$137.60.

I believe US dollar strength will continue until Australia, New Zealand, Europe and UK are done with their interest rate cut, which will take another 6 months at least in my view.

Hence I think its not too difficult to make money in the forex market by shorting EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPUSD during this period.

My trading system is still signal SELL for NZDUSD. If you are interested to know my trading system, send an email to me at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

Chart: https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forexandbinary.com/2008/09/nzdusd-trade-profits-138-pips.html

 

NZDUSD fell to a low of 0.6805 before rebounding up. I believe the overall trend for NZDUSD is still down, but it is oversold now, so we may see a rebound.

I decided to take profit first, bought back at 0.6871, profit is 91 pips, US$90.60.

If you do not want to miss the next downtrend for NZDUSD, click here to open a FX platform account.

 

Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

Canada's currency fell after crude oil dropped to a five-month low and the U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.0689 against its U.S. counterpart at 10:38 a.m., down 0.2 percent from yesterday's C$1.0667.

Crude oil for October delivery touched $105.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since April 4, as Hurricane Gustav spared U.S. Gulf states the destruction caused by Katrina and Rita in 2005. Commodities, including oil, account for about half of Canada's export revenue.

The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow on interest rates.

Lower crude price is one of the things causing weakness in the Canadian dollar.

My trading system signals BUY for USDCAD.

Bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714

Stop level at 1.0610

Target level at 1.0908

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

123456789101112131415...47
New comment
Reason: