FXEngines Nov04 ForexReport Predicting Price Action - page 2
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So what settings exactly did you use for your own backtesting? was it:
-open after x positive pips in a row
-close at [CurrentPrice]+y pips
-stop loss at z
solve for x, y, z
I think if we find that this research is true this could be a very interesting scalper. There just isnt enough details to go on with studies on it. Does anyone want to start out own study? I mean we have tick data and they use time frames... Tick data is tick data no matter what time frame. If we do it like this then it will turn out much better results... Maybe we can split the .csv file into months... I'll get on it tonight then we'll see if we can work a little coding through excel.
Woohoo something to do while scorpion is busy
Researching is always a great idea. If you have some breakthru', don't forget to give me a call.
So what settings exactly did you use for your own backtesting? was it: -open after x positive pips in a row -close at [CurrentPrice]+y pips -stop loss at z solve for x, y, z
I did around 2-5 thousand tests. Different time frames, and different x,y,z s. I wrote a program to loop and test many settings. And none of the settings do well.
Steven
Well for my manual splitting into months its not going so well... the first 1998 one since it was not public yet etc the months are pretty small... But now in 1 minute I have about 20 ticks per minute and afraid to get bigger... So now I don't even have enough space for one month...
Any ideas on what I should do?
Otherwise does anyone know where I can get candle data in big quantities? Tick data is just too much and I guess I will just compare the candles' close and figure it out like this...
Gazuz, I have 1min, 5mins, 15mins, 30mins, 60mins, and daily candle-based data of GBPUSD. I'm uploading them now, so be sure to check them out at the same ftp address I PM you.
Thanks scorpion, i used the 15 minute time frame because the others are too big to open as one file...
anwyays i got most the analyzing to work BUT its counting more than once when when theres more than what its suppose to count... Its rather hard to explain so heres the excel file:
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forex100.fu8.com/FXFisherman/2000.ace
60 Minute Table (5/22/1997-9/24/2004):
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forex1000.com/FXFisherman/60min.zip (683kb)
and here hare the highlights if you dont want the details:
at least 1 pip profit after 2 candles go up/down:
% UP 13.7597406
%DOWN 15.24501857
%TOTAL 29.00475917
at least 1 pip profit after 3 candles go up/down:
% UP 5.844289236
%DOWN 1.805156122
%TOTAL 7.649445357
at least 1 pip profit after 4 candles go up/down:
% UP 2.366403209
%DOWN 3.173292438
%TOTAL 5.539695647
Now the 15 Minute Table (only for year 2000):
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forex1000.com/FXFisherman/2000.zip (343kb)
and highlights are here
at least 1 pip profit after 2 candles go up/down:
% UP 12.86993681
%DOWN 15.7203255
%TOTAL 28.59026231
at least 1 pip profit after 3 candles go up/down:
% UP 4.892656797
%DOWN 7.225104391
%TOTAL 12.11776119
at least 1 pip profit after 4 candles go up/down:
% UP 1.908179075
%DOWN 3.335236076
%TOTAL 5.243415151
Now my point here isnt to compare the two, just to prove their calculations wrong, they were saying it was 80% when in reality it was more around 28%
If you want all the calculations if you don't believe me I will send you the xls file with all the calculations inside