USD news - page 19

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Dollar advances to eight-month high versus yen as U.S. yields resume climb


The dollar rose to an 8-month high against the yen on Friday as U.S. bond yields resumed their rise in Asia after the Thanksgiving break shut markets in the United States.

The dollar was up 0.3 percent at 113.710 yen after hitting an 8-month high of 113.900 yen. It was on track to rise 2.5 percent on the week.

The euro nudged up 0.1 percent to $1.0558 to put a bit of distance between $1.0518, its lowest since March hit in the previous day. The common currency was poised for a 0.3 percent weekly loss.

"We kept expecting the dollar to adjust lower during its bull phase but that has not happened yet, since there has been no real opportunity for selling to take hold," said Shin Kadota, chief Japan FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

"How far the dollar can run will be mostly up to how much more U.S. yields can rise," Kadota said, adding that there were not many factors to derail the dollar's momentum for now, though the turmoil in emerging markets needed watching.

 

October 2016 US wholesale inventories -0.4% vs 0.2% exp m/m


Prelim readings of wholesale and retail inventories 25 November 2016

  • Prior 0.1%. Revised to -0.1%
  • Retail inventories -0.4% vs 0.3% prior
  • Ex-autos -0.3% vs 0.1% prior. Revised to -0.1%
 

November preliminary Markit US services PMI 54.7 vs 54.8 expected


  • Ninth consecutive month of expansion
  • Prior was 54.8
  • New orders 55.5 vs 54.2 prior
  • New orders highest since Nov 2015
  • Composite index at 54.9 vs 54.9 prior
  • 'Prices charged' lowest since April
 

November Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Shore Up Confidence in US Economy


The US economy is set to end the year on a high note, as steady job creation, robust consumer spending and a rebounding industrial sector pave the way for the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in a year.

Investors will be keeping tabs on a deluge of US economic reports this week, culminating in Friday’s November nonfarm payrolls report. Employers are forecast to add 170,000 jobs this month, up from 161,000 in October, according to a median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg. That’s well above the level needed to sustain a healthy labour market.

Another month of solid job creation will provide Fed policymakers with the final push to resume raising interest rates next month. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conclude its policy meeting December 14. Chances of a 25 basis point rate hike are nearly 94%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department is expected to revise its third quarter GDP estimate to reflect 3.1% annualized growth, compared to 2.9% reported last month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicted earlier this week that growth would accelerate to 3.6% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. That would mark the fastest expansion since the third quarter of 2014, when then economy was rebounding from unexpected contraction in the first quarter.

Despite the economy being near full employment, the recovery has been uneven since the Great Recession. That’s why President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to spend up to $1 trillion in infrastructure spending and renegotiate Washington’s trade policies. He has also promised to reform the corporate tax code and deregulate the financial services sector. In the eyes of investors, these policies will lead to faster economic growth. US stocks settled at new records in each of the four trading sessions this week.

In addition to nonfarm payrolls and GDP, the US government will also report on personal income and outlays next week. The report will also be accompanied by data on core personal expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

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US Q3 GDP second reading +3.2% q/q annualized vs +3.0% expected


Highlights of the second look at US third quarter GDP. Nov 29, 2016

  • The first reading was +2.9%
  • Best quarter since Q3 2013
  • Q2 was at +1.4%

Details

  • Personal consumption 2.8% vs 2.3% exp
  • Prior consumption 2.1%

Inflation

  • PCE price index 1.4% vs 1.5% exp
  • Core PCE 1.7% vs 1.7% prior


 

November 2016 US consumer confidence 107.1 vs 101.2 exp


Details from the November 2016 US consumer confidence report 29 November 2016

  • Prior 98.6
  • Current conditions 130.3 vs 120.6. Revised to 123.1
  • Expectations 91.7 vs 83.9 prior. Revised to 86.0
  • 1 yr inflation expectations 4.7% vs 4.8% prior
  • Jobs hard to get 21.7 vs 22.1 prior. Revised to 21.7
 

November 2016 US ADP employment 216k vs 165k exp


Details from the November 2016 US ADP employment report 30 November 2016

  • Prior 147k. Revised to 119k
  • Small biz 37k vs 34k prior
  • Medium 89k vs 48k prior
  • Large 90k vs 64k prior
  • Service sector 228k vs 165k prior
  • Goods producing -11k vs -18k prior
  • Construction 2k vs -15k prior
  • Manufacturing -10k vs -1k prior
  • Trade & transport 69k vs 17k prior
  • Financials 12k vs 18k prior
  • Professional & business 68k vs 69k prior
 

November 2016 US Chicago PMI 57.6 vs 52.0 exp


November 2016 US Chicago PMI report 30 November 2016

  • Prior 50.6
  • Orders up
  • Employment contracted
  • Prices grew but slower
 

US Challenger Nov job cuts yy -13.0% vs -39.1% prev


US Challenger Nov job cuts report 1 Dec

  • 29.6k vs 30.7k prev

Challenger Job Cuts, released by Challenger, Grey & Christmas monthly, provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region. The report is an indicator used by investors to determine the strength of the labor market.

Better data  continuing recent positive trend lower for job cuts.

 

Initial jobless claims 268K vs 253K expected


Initial jobless claims released Nov 26

  • Prior was 251K
  • Continuing claims 2081K vs 2033K expected
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