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EUR/USD Tumbles As Italian Referendum ‘No’ Vote Spurs Uncertaintity
EUR/USD touched the lowest level since April 2015 as the Italian referendum result has renewed concerns over the banking crises in Italy and has introduced the possibility of an Italian exit from the Eurozone.
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’S proposal to streamline the method for passing legislation was voted down today, leading to his resignation. The Prime Minister had threatened to resign ahead of the vote in the event of a “no” vote, but there was some skepticism over whether he would follow through.
There will be some uncertainty as a new government is formed in Italy. There is a possibility that the Five Star Movement may gain traction in its anti-Euro campaign as a result of the referendum, potentially leading to an Italian exit out of the EU down the road.
The banks face a more immediate threat with Italy’s leading bank, Monte Dei Paschi di Siena intending to sell shares this week in an effort to shore up its balance sheet. The uncertainty created by the referendum will likely lead to a loss of confidence in investors to further dampen the bank’s chances as it nears insolvency.
Renzi has been advocating for a government bailout of the banks but has been unable to convince the EU to grant an exception to their anti-bailout laws. Further turmoil in the Italian banking sector would add to the case for an Italian exit from the European Union.
The chain reaction from Renzi’s resignation stands to have a detrimental impact on the Euro currency over the medium to long-term. Markets have shown somewhat of a muted reaction, however, as a shift to risk aversion has been short-lived.
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Germany November import price index mm 0.7% vs 0.2% exp
German November import price index report 22 Dec
Better than expected headline mm but down on previous. Stronger yy reading. Will take a while to filter into inflation data though.
The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
'Summary of Opinions' from the BOJ meeting of December 19/20
The Summary is published a week after a Bank of Japan meeting
Full text here
FOMC Minutes: Saw gradual rate hike pace appropriate for now
There is never as much detail or conviction in the Minutes as market-watchers hope for. This is the closest thing there is to guidance:
"At this meeting, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, inflation would rise to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy prices and non-energy import prices dissipated and the labor market strengthened further. This view was reinforced by the rise in inflation in recent months and by recent increases in inflation compensation. Against this backdrop and in light of the current shortfall in inflation from 2 percent, members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor actual and expected progress toward the Committee's inflation goal."
The knee-jerk reaction in the FX market was disappointment and the US dollar fell 30 pips but it quickly rebounded back to unchanged.
On the election, here is what the Minutes said:
"Asset price movements as well as changes in the expected path for U.S. monetary policy beyond December appeared to be driven largely by expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy in the aftermath of U.S. elections."
Germany Markit construction PMI Dec 54.9 vs 53.9 prev
November 2016 Eurozone industrial production 1.5% vs 0.5% exp m/m
November 2016 Eurozone industrial production report 12 January 2017
A interview rich of information that many are unaware of.
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Interview with Fernando Martínez Gómez Tejedor - the youngest merchant in the world.
Surely they have heard of this man who has been classified as "the world's youngest trader" or "the best trader in the world", with a certain degree of cynicism around him by his frontal criteria regarding the Central Bank and economic policies Europe and USA.
The interview is in Spanish, but I have given the task of translating it for you. The link of the interview in Spanish is as follows: http://www.tradingunited.es/foro/trading-general/1502-entrevista-al-trader-mas-joven-del-mundo-fernando-martinez.html
And here is another radio interview: https://www.ivoox.com/fernando-martinez-gomez-tejedor-forex-entrevista-audios-mp3_rf_11875171_1.html
In my opinion it is a good interview that can serve as inspiration and guide for the newcomers and the more experienced.
Q: First of all Fernando, thank you very much for giving us part of your time in this interview. I know you were the youngest Trader in the world, at what age did you start?
A: My love of the stock market started at a very young age, when I was 6 years old, when I consulted the prices on Teletext on television, at that time I told my parents: "I buy 1 of these and you will see how tomorrow is higher "And the next day I would say," Do you see how it has gone up? " As I recall, it had a very high percentage of success, although it was true that I was not counting the commissions of buy-sell that the brokers put, since at that time I did not know the operation completely, I only noticed if the price was exactly above the previous day.
Q: It's amazing Fernando, but I'm going to ask you the most specific question, at what age did you start working as a Trader?
A: It was before I came of age, I had an agreement with an agent of a broker of the United States so that on my eighteenth birthday I signed them with the position of Introducing Broker and Money Manager, that is why Recognizes me as the youngest professional trader in the world, there is no one, at least publicly known, who has entered to work in a brokerage house with 18 years.
Q: When did you make your first real money deal?
A: I continued with Teletext but at approximately 11 years I stopped being interested in the bag completely, they bought me my first computer and my interests changed completely, after 3 or 4 years without knowing anything about a bag, I dedicated myself to the games of Computer, I was so absorbed by them that I did not remember the stock market. One day my father told me about investing in the stock market, he had a millionaire friend who knew that X company would rise and could multiply the money in a very short time. This happened in full bubble with in the year 2000, so you can imagine what happened with my 200 000 pesetas that I gave my father everything happy, to this day I have not seen any of that money again; For a boy my age that was a fortune, the savings of a lifetime.
Q: So, did you lose everything in your first operation?
A: Yes (laughs) Of course, like any Trader, there is always a ruin, sooner or later, and more or less. And those encounters with ruin are necessary, because in a way it quickens your mind. When I lost my money I began to think about how to recover it, and from that moment my whole life changed.
Q: Why did the bag suit you so much, especially after you lost all your money?
A: When I gave 200,000 pesetas to my father, I did not know anything about forex, I was a minor and nobody would give me work, just as I always said I would never work for another for a salary, that I would like to be my own boss, The only thing I could do was to have my own business, and I started thinking about it. What business could I do at my age, being a child, and generating enough money to live? After having thought about it enough I came to a percentage conclusion, I asked my father if 30% a year was a lot, and he said yes, that was a lot. Then I was already clear that I wanted to have a business that gave 30% a year, but also did not have enough money to start. I kept thinking, and I asked myself the following questions: What business can I mount, that costs me the least possible? In what business can I venture, that does not need to pay employees? What business can I do, that I do not need a business location? What business could I do from my house? What business can I do without the need to get up early? And finally, what business to do that can give me 30% per year? Of course, the answer to these questions came immediately: "The stock market"; And I remembered that I liked it when I was a little boy, so it was then that I really started to get in touch with the bag, I devoured all the information I found, I learned more and more, and I found possibilities to earn even 30% in a month , And then I discovered ways to earn 30% in a single day, I was excited, I really was in the right place. I never had to pay for a stock exchange course, all the information I learned from free books online and other people's experiences. I learned Technical Analysis as the first way to understand a chart, and later I learned everything that exists in this world, and I designed my first automatic trading systems. I also learned that many people, most of them, end up losing money in the stock market, which is why I concentrated on studying for more than 4 years, and more than 14 hours a day in some seasons, before trading my own money in the market, I wanted Be well prepared, to always win. I was not yet legal enough to apply for my own account in a stock broker, so thanks to that I was not in a hurry to graduate, and surely that prevented me from losing. I discovered that the bag was a competition among the participants, that challenge I really liked.
Q: When did you start trading your own money and what stocks did you buy?
A: At the age of 18 I was able to send to my account about 1200 dollars, in the US broker "FXSolutions" with which I have commercial relations today. I started trading directly in the Forex currency market because I had read that it was "The shark market", "the hardest" and "potentially more profitable" in which you could get daily returns of 100 or 1000 %, As well as lose it. I went straight into the more complicated market, and skipped the Futures, Options and Stocks, which would later come back to them through the CFDs.
Q: Do you do Day trading?
A: Yes, but not always, I also do operations that I can keep open for several months, for example I have short on Euribor for several months. In the same way, I can have seasons of 2 or 3 months without performing any operations, I take my breaks and I wait for the best opportunities.
Q: What do you recommend to young speculators who want to follow in your footsteps?
A: That you do not create the rumors or the news of others, that have their own strategies, if they follow the mass, they will end up losing like the mass. That the important thing is to look at real time, the movement of the second to second graphs, for thousands and thousands of hours, comes a time when your brain automatically detects the trends, you start to understand the market and it is very easy to detect opportunities. Do not ever pay to receive stock market training, it is better to invest that money in the market and learn from experience, who offers courses for the stock market and charges money for it possible not to be a winner in the stock market, and pay for a course Mediocre will only lead you to be mediocre, and to spend your money for nothing.
Q: Have you thought at what age you could retire?
A: I think I could be the youngest retiree in the world if I wanted to, but I plan to work all my life, the more money I earn, the greater my contribution and help for the disadvantaged.
Q: How did you feel when you opened your first real money deal? What did you feel?
A: I realized that my work had started at that time, I felt the excitement of being in the market, I remember the first time I bought EUR / USD and closed in a few seconds with a profit of 2 $, 0.2% Of $ 1000 I had in my account, in a few seconds, a success. I enjoyed it but felt a bit disappointed, I would have liked to have more money in my beginnings.
Q: At what point did you realize that you were good at your operations?
A: When I started to hit more than 15 consecutive trades without losing, surpassing an average of 90% winning trades, it took about a year and a half to coin that talent. I knew the whole theory, but in practice everything is totally different, I did not know that emotions affected Trading so much, I had to learn to stay calm, relax and control myself, and it is difficult to have a $ 1000 account in Forex, my account I could move 20% in a few seconds, I learned to be in line with the market and not to fight with him.
Q: With your years of experience in the stock market, if you had to give a percentage of success in your operations, how much would it be?
A: I now have a 98% success rate, not counting futures expirations, which sometimes end up with partially losing positions, which are rewarded for the following months, with gains.
Q: Traders, usually, have to fight against their emotions. How did you do that would not affect your platform performance?
A: I have different strategies, the main thing is not to go with the risk, I invest a "small amount" so if that value drops to 0, I will not lose more than 5% of my entire account. I do not rush to close, I use futures and not cash market so they do not charge me swap, sometimes I would rather leave the order and not look at the screen in 2 days, other times with a Stop I would remove the problem from above. It has been very difficult to control my emotions, especially when I started to do strong operations, where I could win or lose $ 50,000 in a matter of minutes. Finally one becomes accustomed to its mechanics of work, and one does not think about the money that is gained, but in doing good operations.
I started to capitalize on my bag profits, and I was withdrawing money to turn it into solid physical businesses, like shops or buildings, that gave me a smaller, but more stable and risk-free performance. I saved a lot of money, I do not like to live surrounded by luxuries, that's why I can buy more things than others, especially things that keep generating money.
Q: When you use the platform do you use indicators? And if so, which?
A: I used to use indicators, a long time ago, the Mobile Media, the RSI and the MACD, looking for divergences, I currently do not use any indicators, I think my brain has exercised so much in the market that it can process the results of the indicators, not It is necessary to put an indicator to calculate approximately at what level it is.
Q: From your professional point of view as a trader What other colleagues do you admire for their platform results?
A: I have met many traders throughout my career, currently none of them have good consistent results, I have my great friend Adrián Aquaro, but he never says his results, he only recommends what you have to do ... and free , Something that not everyone does.
Q: Fernando tell us What does it take to become one of the best traders in the world like you?
A: More than 20 000 hours of real time, and simple notions of money management (do not risk much when it is expensive, risk a lot when it is cheap, if you expect a much greater benefit to your possible loss), have no debts, no Need to earn money a month, to be able to go easy, do not be scared by the market, and always, buy when you go down, do not buy when you go up and, of course, have confidence in yourself.
Q: Do you think the regulations for forex brokers are necessary and really guarantee the stability of the same?
A: No, it's just a lie, but it's made it so famous that people think it's true. A regulator like the NFA all he gets is to be able to fine a broker, but the fine money goes to the NFA (to the government), the affected client never sees a single cent. Actually the NFA is a seal, not a regulation: but as people ask for "regulations" they were invented in 2 days, to give people pleasure
Q: Tell us how did you make your fortune?
A: Since I was generating money a lot of people started to want to invest with me, and I wanted to give them their money to give them some benefit. That's why I was able to grow faster because I was getting much better profits than almost any investment they knew. They gave me a percentage of profits, or the totality of profits if it surpasses a certain profitability.
Eurozone Markit Jan mftg PMI flash 55.1 vs 54.8 exp
Eurozone Markit Jan PMI flash report 24 Jan
Similar to Germany, better mftg but weaker serv/comp
Full Markit report here
Germany Jan IFO business climate 109.8 vs 111.3 exp
German Jan IFO report 25 Jan