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thenews 2016.09.20 15:00  

US Aug housing starts 1142K vs 1190K expected

  • Prior was 1211K (revised to 1212K)
  • Housing starts -5.8% vs -1.7% exp
  • Building permits 1139K vs 1165K
  • Prior building permits 1144K (unrevised)
  • Building permits -0.4% m/m vs +1.8% m/m expected
  • Single family housing starts at 722K, lowest since October 2015
thenews 2016.09.20 18:02  

US Building Permits Fall 0.4% in August; Housing Starts Decline 5.8%

According to the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, new building permits for private homes in August was at an annual rate of 1.139 million on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This was 2.3% below the August 2015 level of 1.166 million. This data was 0.4% below the July revised rate of 1.144 million (from 1.152 million) and below the 1.17 million analyst were looking for, according to a Thomson Reuters Survey.

The number of new privately-owned housing starts was at pace of 1.142 million annually on a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5.8% below the July revised data of 1.122 million (from 1.121 million). From a year ago, the rate of housing rates for August was 0.9% higher.

The number of completions for privately-owned homes in August was at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.043 million, an increase of 3.4% from the July rate of 1.08 million and 8.3% higher than the August 2015 rate of 963k.

The US dollar had a knee-jerk reaction to the news. The ICE US Dollar Index is currently edging higher on the day by 6 bps to 95.90. December gold future are unchanged at $1,317 per ounce. US Index futures are indicating a stronger open; S&P 500 futures are trading up 8 points, or 0.38%, to 2,141. Today is the beginning of a two-day FOMC meeting. Tomorrow, the committee will announce its decision on rates and outlook at 14:00 GMT.

thenews 2016.09.22 14:37  

Initial jobless claims 252K vs 261K expected

Weekly US initial jobless claims data

  • Prior was 260K (no revision)
  • Continuing claims 2113K vs 2140K exp
thenews 2016.09.22 16:17  

US August existing home sales 5.33m vs 5.45m expected

xisting home sales data from the National Association of Realtors

  • Prior was 5.39m (revised to 5.38m)
  • Sales down 0.9% m/m vs +1.1% exp
  • Median sale prices $240K, +5.1% from Aug 2015
  • Inventory of homes for sale 2.04 million, or 4.6 months

Despite two months of declines, sales remain near the post-crisis highs.

thenews 2016.09.23 09:59  

Dollar on track for weekly losses in wake of Fed, BOJ moves

The dollar gained in Asian trading on Friday but was on track to end a tumultuous week with losses after the Federal Reserve trimmed its long-term interest rate expectations and the Bank of Japan rebooted its monetary policy framework.

The dollar was up 0.4 percent at 101.09 yen , pulling away from a nearly four-week low of 100.10 touched overnight, though still poised to shed 1.1 percent for the week.

Markets in Tokyo reopened after a public holiday on Thursday, and digested Wednesday's news that the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year.

The U.S. central bank also projected a less aggressive rise in interest rates next year and in 2018, and it cut its longer-run interest rate forecast to 2.9 percent from 3.0 percent.

Also on Wednesday, ahead of the holiday, the BOJ shifted to targeting interest rates on Japanese government bonds as the focus of its massive monetary easing program, dropping its explicit target of increasing base money.

The BOJ's announcement initially sent the dollar up more than 1 percent to 102.79 yen, though the gains unraveled as investors realized that the overall market impact was far from obvious.

"The build-up to Wednesday was large, with lots of anticipation, but everyone kind of walked away scratching their heads," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of Hong Kong FX sales at State Street Global Markets.

"We're defaulting to the levels where the market is comfortable. There wasn't enough to energize the dollar through 100 yen, or 103," he said.

Some analysts took heart at the fact that the dollar was able to pull itself off its overnight session lows above the 100-yen level, which remains a key technical point.

read more

thenews 2016.09.23 16:40  

US Markit Manufacturing PMI Dips to 51.4 in September

According to preliminary data, in September US manufacturing production slowed from August, but remained in growth territory. The Markit Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 51.4 from 52 the month prior. This reading was worse than the analyst consensus estimate of 51.9, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.

Manufacturers are experiencing the slowest rise in new business intakes thus far this year, according to Markit. A weaker rate of output and softer business growth were cited as the largest contributing factors to a slower PMI reading. The latest growth in manufacturing production was the weakest for three months. Participants in the survey indicated that the overall soft economy “acted as a brake” on new order volumes. A stronger dollar was said to weigh on export sales as well. New work in the sector climbed at the slowest rate since December 2015.

On the bright side, the creation of new jobs rebounded after hitting a 4-month low in August. Purchasing activity gained further traction in September, making for the fifth month in a row of sustained growth.

Input cost inflation continues to be subdued looking out over the entire manufacturing sector. Over the past six months, input prices have increased each month, however, the rate of increase was the weakest during that stretch. Low cost inflation and strong competition for new work caused manufacturers to reduce output charges.

Markit Senior Economist, Tim Moore said, “September’s survey data points to a sustained upturn in manufacturing production, although growth remains subdued overall and only slightly faster than seen through the first half of 2016. However, manufacturers reported firmer job hiring than one month previously and input price inflation nudged upwards, meaning that the weaker headline PMI figure is unlikely to dampen expectations that the Fed will tighten policy at the end of the year.”


thenews 2016.09.26 18:26  

US New Home Sales Weakened by 7.6% in August

During August, the number of new single-family homes sold in the US fell 7.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 609,000. The weak August data comes after a strong July where a 13.8% rise was experienced. The July figured was revised higher to an annualized rate of 659,000 new homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the original estimate of 654,000.

Despite the weakness in August, new home sales have grown 20.6% when compared to the same month a year-ago.

Analyst on average were expecting a larger decline of 8.6% to an annualized pace of 600,000, according to Thomson Reuters.

The median sales price of new homes sold in August was $284,000, while the average sales price was $353,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of the reported month was 235,000, representing a supply of 4.6 months at the current rate of sales. The number of homes for sale which had not started construction was 44,000; under construction was 132,000; while those completed was 59,000.

There was no regional data available at the time of the release by the U.S. Census Bureau.

read more

thenews 2016.09.27 14:14  

August 2016 US building permits revised up to 1.152m

US Building permit revisions

The first release was last week with the starts, which came in below expectations (1.190m) and July (1.212m) at 1.142m.

thenews 2016.09.28 13:18  

US MBA mortgage applications -0.7% vs -7.3% prior

US MBA mortgage market index week ending 23 September 2016

  • Mortgage index 527.1 vs 530.8 prior
  • Purchase index 222.8 vs 221.1 prior
  • Refi index 2273.2 vs 2309.6 prior
  • 30yr mortgage rate 3.66% vs 3.70% prior
thenews 2016.09.29 14:48  

US initial jobless claims 254k vs 260k expected

Latest US initial jobless claims report  29 Sept 2016

  • 252k prev
  • 4-week average fell to 256k from 258k prev
  • continuing claims 2.062m vs 2.129m exp vs 2.113m prev w-e 17 Sept

Less than expected but focus on US GDP data and it's giving the greenback a lift.

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