Causal relationships

 

Hello Everyone,

I think we all would agree that there a variety of factors influencing a security's price. Changes in one corner of the world are felt in the other corner. I am beginning this thread so that we can analyse how a movement in X can affect the price of Y. Please feel free to contribute.

I 'll take the first shot.

A fast spreading tree fungus called roya is affecting the production of coffee. Depending on the severity, there might be a short term spike in the prices of coffee. While chains like Starbucks do hedge their buying prices, it might still affect there operating expenses and might lead to a lower than usual profit margin.

So news of tree fungus could cause the price of Starbucks to fall (Short firms using coffee as input).

 

because of geopolitical situation, physical demand for gold is sky high, while paper price for gold is going down...

 
Pava:
because of geopolitical situation, physical demand for gold is sky high, while paper price for gold is going down...

Adding to this post; my two cents. India and China are the largest consumers of Gold. Any kind of reduction in Gold import tariffs in either of these two countries should cause a short term jump in the prices of Gold.

 
cryptex:
Adding to this post; my two cents. India and China are the largest consumers of Gold. Any kind of reduction in Gold import tariffs in either of these two countries should cause a short term jump in the prices of Gold.

Why should the price of gold jump in that case?

 
nbtrading:
Why should the price of gold jump in that case?

Because a while back India had an effective tax of 20% on Gold; people didn't find gold that attractive anymore. But because of cultural reasons gold is highly valued in Eastern countries. Any sudden drop in price means people would be attracted to Gold. Not saying that people will all the Gold they avoided because of the import tariff but greed of getting something at a discount and fear of losing an opportunity will drive people to buy gold. There won't be a very big jump but I think there will a strong demand and hence the rise in price.

 

Gold seems to be on one way road : down

Reason: