Euro Dollar Rate Forecasts for 2014-2015 - page 8
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Which moron invented the :
Why of course : Juncker, Draghi and Schoeble (drinking the morning schnaps to cheer the obstipation from eating s.t the previous night)
USD: They Think It’s All Over…Far From It – BNPP
The greenback made a comeback of sorts. Is this just a correction or has the long term dollar trend have room to improve?
The team at BNP Paribas sees more to come and explains:
Here is their view :
“…Some market participants are revisiting their bullish USD views, arguing that the rally is nearing an end. We are sympathetic to the idea of a more two-way market and a slowing in the pace of USD gains, but we believe we are still a long way from the end of the bullish USD trend.
USD long-term bullish cycle is far from complete. Although the pace of USD appreciation has been rapid, historical comparisons do not support the idea that the dollar is at levels that would mark an end of a cycle. At the end of March the Fed’s ‘broad’ and ‘major currencies’ inflation-adjusted USD indices were, respectively, 16% and 11.5% below their 1995-2002 bull cycle peaks. Given the consistency in the length of the dollar’s bull and bear cycles, the current upward trend appears to have another three to four years to run. Our fair-value models are signalling that dollar valuations are now more expensive, but are not yet a major constraint.
…The bottom line is that we see forecasts for the end to the USD rally as premature at this stage. The next significant catalyst for the USD rally should be the Fed rate lift-off, which is still nearly six months away, in our view. ”
Vassili Serebriakov – BNP Paribas
Temp Bounce; Parity Call Still Intact For Q3 – TD
The Draghi show was stolen by a protester that interrupted the press conference. And what about the euro? Has its path been altered?
The team at TD weighs in, and sees a downwards trajectory. Here’s why, with a chart:
Here is their view :
At today’s ECB press conference, President Draghi continued to distance himself from verbally jawboning the EUR, continued to rule out another rate cut, continued to say the ECB is rule-based when asked how long they can support Greece, said he saw no signs of a bond bubble, and continued to avoid saying anything to suggest tapering is a concept they have even thought about at this stage, notes TD.
“So overall, the ECB continues to be optimistic on the impact of its measures and likes the improvement it is seeing in the data and lending surveys, but not enough to significantly shift their overall message. There was no mention of a review to broaden the assets eligible for SSA purchases, but this may still follow in the non-policy meeting later this month,” TD adds.
“Overall, this provided minor support to both fixed income (no bubble means buy bonds) and EURUSD (uncertain passthrough of weaker currency to inflation means maybe weaker EURUSD doesn’t help), TD argues.
“Nothing here changes our view that bunds should continue to trade in a range capped at around 30bps for the next 3-6 months and EURUSD should trade below parity by 2015Q3,” TD projects.
source
So they predict bellow 1.0
We shall see. FED is already backing up from rate hike
So they predict bellow 1.0 We shall see. FED is already backing up from rate hike
That is VE (Vocal easing)
The whole idea is to muddy the water as much as possible, so any FED "hint" or "leak" can move USD in the direction they think is good on a certain day
That is VE (Vocal easing) The whole idea is to muddy the water as much as possible, so any FED "hint" or "leak" can move USD in the direction they think is good on a certain day
They are clueless : the debt have risen for 35 trillion since they started to fix the things. They fixed it so good , that now there is no way back
Where To Sell EUR/USD? Morgan Stanley Chart Of The Week
EUR/USD staged a nice recovery, with the weakness of the dollar serving as the main driver. Does this provide an opportunity to sell the pair in the wide range?
The team at Morgan Stanley weighs in:
Here is their view :
Morgan Stanley picks EUR/USD as its technical FX chart of the week where MS remains medium-term bearish and looks for selling opportunities on rebounds. MS provides some important levels for this potential trade where traders should consider entering this trade and placing their stops and targets accordingly. The details of MS’ latest limit order to short EUR/USD is also provided.
On the long term EUR/USD chart:
“Having accelerated to a low of 1.0463, going out of the lower end of the multi-year trend channel, EURUSD didn’t remain there for very long and has since rebounded to a high of 1.1036. However the longer term bearish picture remains and so, should the downside momentum return, we watch for breaks of the following key levels: 1.0463, 0.9613 then 0.8565,” MS notes.
“EURUSD is still within a 5 th wave structure of the larger Cwave. The 5 th wave has formed a substructure, which we would expect to complete around parity. However we expect some volatility before getting there. A move above the 1.1052 level would mean that there is a larger 4th wave forming, suggesting a move towards 1.15 before the longer term downtrend continues,” MS projects.
On the 10-day EUR/USD Chart
“EURUSD has begun to form an impulsive structure from the 4-th wave correction, we look for the rebound to sell. We put a stop just above the 1.10 high since a move above here would be out of the top end of the recent range and we would have to reassess our trading strategy at this point,” MS advises.
The trade: limit order to sell EUR/USD
In line with this view, MS runs a limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.09 in its strategic portfolio. The trade has a stop at 1.1050 and a target at 1.00.
source
Draghi says : “It’s pointless to go short on the euro”
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged Greece to work quickly toward an agreement with its creditors to curb a deepening financial crisis and quash doubts over its membership of the euro.
Even as he warned investors against dumping the single currency, Draghi said Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government must do “much more work” to show it can satisfy the terms of its 240 billion-euro ($259 billion) bailout program.
“It’s urgent,” Draghi told reporters in Washington on Saturday during meetings of the International Monetary Fund. “We all want Greece to succeed. The answer is in the hands of the Greek government.”
Draghi made his call for action after Greek government bonds suffered their worst week since Tsipras’s January election. The government’s anti-austerity rhetoric is clashing with demands from its European peers to take more steps to revamp its debt-laden economy before they will release another tranche of aid.
At stake is Greece’s ability to avoid defaulting on its debts and stay in the 19-nation euro area. The brinkmanship overshadowed the Washington talks of global finance chiefs as delegates from outside of the euro area urged a speedy resolution.
Greek Initiative
“We have been clear in our conversations with all parties there is an urgent need to come together around a comprehensive approach,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said Friday. “Time is of the essence” and “Greece has to take the lead.”
Euro-area finance ministers are next due to discuss progress on Greece at their meeting on April 24 in the Latvian capital of Riga. A deal is unlikely to be ready by then, Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in Washington on Friday.
For all the strains, Draghi cautioned investors not to bet against the 16-year-old single currency. “It’s pointless to go short on the euro,” he said. “Do it.”
He also said that Greek banks continue to meet the requirements for Emergency Liquidity Assistance, a financial lifeline the ECB decides on each week. The funding has so far helped avoid a financial meltdown as the wrangling over aid has gone on.
“ELA will continue to be given to the banks if they’re judged to be solvent and if they have adequate collateral which is the case now,” Draghi said.
Liquidity Lifeline
The emergency aid flowing to the Greek banks will have to end eventually, said Governing Council member Christian Noyer. He said the aid is consistent with ECB rules and also not a substitute for long-term actions.
“Emergency assistance is by definition not meant to last indefinitely,” Noyer said. “There will have to be a solution to the fundamental problems. If deposits continue to drop, banks will find it difficult to get refinancing.”
In an interview in Washington, ECB Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas said the central bank shouldn’t extend its assistance beyond the summer.
“The situation in Greece means that we should have a limit until summer for ELA,” Vasiliauskas said on Saturday. “Everyone understands what ELA means, it’s a temporary measure to give the banks liquidity.”
Greece is at the top of the agenda when euro area finance ministers meet on Friday. The European Union said Greek authorities are drawing up plans based on their initial list of reforms, which can unlock aid if it passes muster with the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission.
Talk of the Greek situation filled the corridors at the IMF’s spring meeting but “nothing has changed,” French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told reporters. “We’re in the same situation at the end of these meetings as at the beginning.”
Draghi said any package of Greek policies should focus on “growth, fairness, fiscal sustainability and financial stability.”
While Europe is better equipped to deal with any fallout in financial markets if Greek negotiations fail than it was when it first fell into crisis, he said the region is still in “uncharted waters.”
source
What the hell did he tell?
What does the "Do it" mean in that statement. He was again enjoying the sound of his voice
maybe its the signal we could sell euro even more