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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 12.04 - 19.04: Bearish Breakdown with 1.0461 Next Key Support Level - page 3

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newdigital, 2015.04.17 06:22

EUR/USD: BNP say Greek deal unlikely by April 24, see a May deal to avoid default (adapted from forexlive article)

  • Negotiations have ground to a halt
  • The Greek government has until 20 April to present economic and fiscal reforms
  • Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on 24 April
  • Recent comments by EU officials suggest an imminent deal to unlock the last tranche of Greece's bailout funds still looks unlikely
  • The Eurogroup meeting on 11 May is now being touted as the date of a potential deal on Greece
  • Greece facing about EUR 0.2bn in interest payments to the IMF on 1 May and a EUR 0.8bn IMF loan redemption on 12 May
  • We continue to expect the Greeks to make a last-minute U-turn to secure a deal in the not-too distant future

But ...

  • it is impossible to rule out a worst-case scenario in which a deal is not reached ... Greece does not pay the IMF and the Greek government decides to hold a referendum on the terms of an EU bailout and/or membership of currency union
  • If the outcome of a referendum were positive (ie, with the majority of Greeks agreeing to the terms of a bailout deal and/or a continuation of euro membership), this could potentially help Mr Tsipras to reshape Syriza, or form a coalition with pro-European, reform-friendly parties, such as Pasok or To Potami
  • This would be positive for the country's future relationship with the EU, but the implications of capital controls for sentiment and growth would be negative, at least in the short term, creating new problems, such as even greater funding needs.

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newdigital, 2015.04.17 09:01

Technical Analysis for EURUSD - Elliot Wave view from Morgan Stanley (based on forexlive article)

15-year chart saying:

  • Having accelerated to a low of 1.0463, going out of the lower end of the multi-year trend channel, EURUSD didn't remain there for very long and has since rebounded to a high of 1.1036.
  • However the longer term bearish picture remains and so, should the downside momentum return, we watch for breaks of the following key levels: 1.0463, 0.9613 then 0.8565.


The analysts comes in to a 2-year timeframe:

  • EURUSD is still within a 5th wave structure of the larger Cwave.
  • The 5th wave has formed a substructure, which we would expect to complete around parity. However we expect some volatility before getting there.
  • A move above the 1.1052 level would mean that there is a larger 4th wave forming, suggesting a move towards 1.15 before the longer term downtrend continues.

10-day chart:

  • EURUSD has begun to form an impulsive structure from the high of 1.1036.
  • Currently in a 4-th wave correction, we look for the rebound to sell.
  • We put a stop just above the 1.10 high since a move above here would be out of the top end of the recent range and we would have to reassess our trading strategy at this point.

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newdigital, 2015.04.17 10:47

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Retain Slowest Pace of Growth Since 2009.
  • Core Rate of Inflation to Hold at Annualized 1.7% for Second Month.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may prop up the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD should the inflation report highlight sticky price growth in the world’s largest economy.

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite signs of a slower recovery, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to prepare U.S. households and business for higher borrowing-costs as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Headline & Core CPI Highlight Sticky Price Growth

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Price Index Falls Short of Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish, but the failure to push back below the 1.5000 handle may continue to foster range-bound prices over the near-term.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0990 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0487 (3/13 close) to 1.0515 (50% expansion)

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newdigital, 2015.04.17 15:45

2015-04-17 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

==========

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% For Second Straight Month In March

While the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing another modest increase in U.S. consumer prices in the month of March, prices rose by slightly less than economists had anticipated.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in March, matching the increase seen in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent.

The continued increase in prices was partly due to another notable increase in energy prices, which rose by 1.1 percent in March after climbing by 1.0 percent in February.

The gasoline index showed its biggest increase since February of 2013, surging up by 3.9 percent, while the fuel oil index also jumped by 5.9 percent.

However, the increase in energy prices was partly offset by a drop in food prices, as the food index fell by 0.2 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2015.04.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

EURUSD M5: 77 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event

EURUSD, M5, 2015.04.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.04.17 18:54

EURUSD tests resistance again (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD - like the AUDUSD (and also the USDCAD) - has seen the price action complete a full lap in trading today. The price moved higher in London morning session, but subsequently fell all the way down to the days lows when NY traders entered.  




The weekend flows can wreck havoc. Greece will be in play over weekend (and going forward).  As a result geo-political risk have the potential to lead to more squaring up and choppy trading action -especially in the next hour.


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newdigital, 2015.04.18 06:54

EUR/USD: Momentum Shifts - BTMU (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD is still trading within the 1.05-1.10 range that has been mainly intact for most of March and April, and in that sense the best bias to have for the week ahead is probably neutral, notes Bank of Tokyo Mitsubish (BTMU).

"The momentum though appears to be shifting back toward a higher move with EUR/USD moving that way in the aftermath of the monetary policy press conference by President Draghi. While the ECB is a little more upbeat we do not think that will help the euro," BTMU adds.

"The IMF/G20 gathering in Washington may well result in some comments on the dollar – a G20 statement may refer to FX in a slightly different way and this is a risk to the upside for EUR/USD. Any sense that officials are getting more worried about the speed of dollar strength may prompt selling. However, this is unlikely to be sustained for long – the reality is that monetary policy divergence is set for some considerable time," BTMU argues.

"Greece will remain an issue and given the risk that this could go right to the wire, this is a clear downside risk for EUR/USD if there’s a sense next week of no progress being made toward a resolution and the release of additional funds for Greece," BTMU adds.


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