Daily Market Analysis by FXNET - page 10
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Forex Daily Analysis - 13 Aug 2014
EUR/USD given way today after German information hit the ropes. The euro tumbled to exchange at a 9 month low, falling 45 focuses to exchange at 1.3338. The euro slid Tuesday after a droop in German monetary notion further powered stresses that the financial standoff with Russia over the clash in Ukraine is harming Europe's economy.german government obligation turned higher, while German shares falled behind a pickup in most local value markets.
GBP/USD eased by 8 points on the prospect of a disappointing UK jobs data to trade at 1.6778. BoE Governor Mark Carney will address the press after the inflation report, which is also going to be crucial for sterling. What follows is another important event – the second quarter GDP data, due on Friday. The UK claimant count is forecast to have dropped by 30,000 in July compared to the 36,300 drop recorded in June. Forecasters see the ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June at 6.4%, down from 6.5% in May.
AUD/USD eased by 3 points against the dollar rally. Strong data from Oz helped fight off the climbing US dollar. Australian house prices beat expectations along with the NAB business survey. The Australian dollar has stabilized following dramatic moves last week when the currency fell to two-month lows on the back of weaker-than-expected data and economic growth forecasts from the central bank.
USD/JPY climbed 13 points as traders moved away from safe haven trades leaving the JPY weak after a rash of disappointing economic data yesterday and last week as traders wait for the release on industrial production numbers. The US dollar surged 10 points in the morning session climbing to 81.61. On Monday, the US dollar rallied against the yen and euro after the unit plunged in the wake of last week’s announcement that Washington had authorized air strikes in Iraq.
Gold is moving between small gains and losses trading at 1311.60 but hugging the $1310 price level all day as geopolitical risks kept markets watchful. In Iraq, a new political crisis was brewing just days after Washington launched its first military action against insurgents from the Islamic State.
Forex Daily Analysis - 14 Aug 2014
GBP/USD tumbled 103 focuses after remarks from Bank of England Governor to exchange at 1.6708 in the wake of hopping on better than anticipated employments information. The pound tumbled to a two-month low versus the dollar as merchants pushed back their desires for premium rate expands after the Bank of England cut its estimate for pay development. The British pound spiked quickly before tumbling.
AUD/USD added 13 points to trade at 0.9281 after a significant jump in consumer confidence. Weak economic data and a downbeat central bank statement dampened sentiment towards the Australian dollar recently, but one analyst told CNBC investors shouldn’t give up faith. The currency fell 2.6 percent from its July 1 year-to-date high of $0.9504 against the U.S. dollar to a two-month low of around $0.9236 last week amid rising unemployment and a weaker growth outlook.
USD/JPY gained 4 points to trade at 102.30 after Japanese GDP missed expectations. Gross domestic product shrunk by an annualized 6.8% in the three months ended June, Japan’s Cabinet Office said Wednesday. The result was actually better than the 7% contraction expected by economists. Government officials were more sanguine about Wednesday’s data. Economy Minister Akira Amari said the figure didn’t change the government’s outlook that the economy continues to improve steadily. He said the government would respond flexibly on the economy but added that he didn’t currently see a need to compile an additional budget.
Gold was directionless today, remaining flat in the Asian session and moving between small gains and losses during European trading to sell for 1310.20. The Federal Reserve is cutting debt purchases and contemplating interest-rate increases as the economy strengthens. The dollar was near a nine-month high versus the euro after data showed yesterday German investor confidence slumped and before a report today that may show U.S. retail sales increased for a sixth month.
Fundamental Analysis August 15
EUR/USD recuperated 27 focuses to exchange at 1.3391 after a large number of blended information and a confounded ECB month to month report. The dollar gave back increases the greater part of the morning to trade at 81.53. Euro zone swelling will be weaker than long ago expected in the not so distant future and next, an overhauled review for the European Central Bank showed today, obscuring the euro zone's monetary standpoint.
GBP/USD is flat today holding at 1.6691 after disappointing inflation information and comments from the central bank on Wednesday. The BoE lowered its growth estimate for U.K. wages to 1.25% for the year, down from 2.5%, or half of the previous estimate; 2015 wage growth estimates were also revised downward.
AUD/USD eased by 8 points to trade at 0.9298 after iron ore prices tumbled to their weakest this month weighing on the Aussie. Earlier in June, the iron ore price dropped to as low as $US89 a ton, but despite a minor rebound since then year-to-date falls are still over 30 per cent. The latest downward move comes amid continued oversupply in the market due to increased supply from heavyweights like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and softer demand from China.
USD/JPY continued to rise as the US dollar gained momentum as traders overlooked weak US data but focused on a significant drop in Japanese GDP. The USDJPY is trading at 102.60 up by 17 points this morning. The Japanese Yen traded on a negative note and depreciated around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of expectation that global policy makers will keep borrowing costs low for longer, damping demand for haven assets. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 102.36.Japan’s Core Machinery Orders gained 8.8 percent in June as against a fall of 19.5 percent in June.
Gold is moving between small gains and losses holding at 1315.80. Gold consumption fell by an annualized 16 percent in the second quarter of 2014 as Chinese and Indian buyers cut back on record purchases a year earlier, sector data showed.
Fundamental Analysis August 22
EUR/USD gained 8 points as traders breathed a sigh of relief when PMI numbers were not as bad as expected. The US dollar gave back some early gains but remains strong at 82.29. Data from Germany eased pressure on the struggling euro today after speculation of an earlier rate rise from the Federal Reserve had pushed the dollar to an 11-month high. Share markets had been feeling flat following a disappointing survey on Chinese manufacturing overnight but they too got a lift from the news that Germany’s private sector grew for a 16th month running in August.
GBP/USD is trading at 1.6588 down just 6 points after a strong retail sales release. The pound, down more than six cents in the past month, had gained a foothold on Wednesday after minutes from the Bank of England’s own last policy meeting showed the first dissenting votes on its policy committee for a rise in interest rates. But a similarly hawkish message from the Fed sent the dollar higher across the board after UK markets closed, driving the pound to less than $1.66 for the first time since early April.
AUD/USD lost 6 points to trade below 93 touching 0.9296 after a speech from RBA Governor Stevens. In Australia, the Reserve Bank Governor gave testimony to the House of Representatives Economics committee. In the US, weekly mortgage finance data is released with the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting.
Gold tumbled $13.60 to trade at 1281.60 as traders moved to more profitable assets. Gold extended losses to a fifth session on Thursday, dropping to a two-week low after the US dollar strengthened on indications from the US Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected. A surprisingly strong recovery in the US job market could lead the Fed to raise interest rates earlier than it had been anticipating, minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed, although most officials wanted further evidence before changing their view.
Daily Market Analysis by FXNET
The Japanese Yen rose against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday following comments by Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda saying the yen is not likely to get weaker. By Thursday the U.S. dollar rebound against the yen.
The USD/JPY pair added 0.46 percent and reached 123.19.
The AUD/USD added 0.21 percent on Thursday and reached 0.7793 as the Aussie was supported by positive data release.
The dollar also rose against the Euro with the EUR/USD pair falling to 1.1305. On Wednesday the pair traded in the range of 1.1264 and 1.1386. It was expected to find support at 1.0913 and resistance at 1.1450.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the currency against 6 other major currencies added 0.22 percent and was at 94.79.
Elsewhere the Australian dollar was also higher against the New Zealand dollar. The AUD/NSD pair added 2.62 percent and was at 1.1048.
The World Bank released its twice a year Global Economic Prospects report, and its prediction for the global economy was lower than its January prediction. While 6 months ago its prediction was for a 3 percent growth, it now reported a 2.8 percent expansion prediction.
On Thursday front month crude oil prices lost 11 cents and traded at 65.59 dollars a barrel.
U.S. crude lost 25 cents and was at 61.18 dollars a barrel.
Gold for August delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 0.08 percent and was at 1,185.60 dollars a troy ounce.
Silver for July delivery added 0.15 percent and was at 15,983 dollars a troy ounce while copper for July delivery added 0.05 percent and was at 2,744 dollars a pound.
Daily Market Analysis by FXNET 25/Jun
The Euro was majorly affected by Greece’s meeting with its creditors that ended in a rejection of the proposal due to differences. Greece is ever close to the June 30th deadline by which it has to reach a deal to unlock funds and repay the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan to avoid defaulting on its debt.
The Euro lost 0.18 percent against the yen and the EUR/JPY pair fell from 138.76 (Late Wednesday’s number) to 138.50. Even against the Japanese Yen the Euro was weaker and the EUR/JPY pair fell from 138.76 (Late Wednesday’s number) to 138.50.
The U.S. dollar was slightly weaker than the Japanese yen the USD/JPY pair fell to 123.56.
Against the British pound the dollar was also stronger and the GBP/USD pair lost 0.11 percent and traded at 1.5716.
The USD/CHF pair lost 0.11 percent and fell to 1.5716, the AUD/USD lost 0.54 percent and was at 0.7695.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies was slightly higher at 95.53.
Brent Crude for August delivery added 2 cents and was at 63.51 dollars a barrel.
“For today we continue to expect prices to move sideways with a strong resistance at 61.80 dollars and 65 dollars for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, and support 50 dollars and 62.38 dollars” said Phillip Futures in a note.
Gold futures for August delivery added 0.26 percent on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange and were at 1,176.00 dollars a troy ounce during Thursday’s morning European Trading hours. It was expected to find support at 1,162.10 dollars and resistance at 1,200.80 dollars.
Elsewhere on the Comex silver futures for July lost 0.08 percent and were at 15.84 dollars a troy ounce and Copper for July delivery lost 0.27 percent and was at 2.618 dollars a pound.
MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.3 percent. Japan’s Nikkei Stock index lost 0.5 percent. On Wednesday optimist around the Greek situation had pushed the index close to its t 20 year high.
European shares were also dimmed with Britain’s FTSE 100 opening 11 to 12 points lower, Germany’s DAX was expected to lose 41 points and France’s CAC 40 to lose 19 points.
On Thursday the FTSEurofirst 300 lost 0.5 percent and was at 1,569.82 points, Hennes & Mauritz lost 2.2 percent.
Elsewhere U.S. stock futures were higher by 0.2 percent in Thursday’s early Asian trade.
FXNET Daily Market Analysis
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is hoping to pass a second set of reforms required by the country’s lenders to kick start talks for another rescue package. Until Wednesday night the reforms must be accepted by the government but the bump in the way will be Tsipras’ anti-EU Syriza party who rebelled last week when the first set of reforms was passed, votes from pro-EU opposition parties including ‘To Potami’ and ‘Pasok’ who have both said they would support the prime minister helped the reforms pass.
The EUR/USD pair rose to its one week high. Adding 24 percent the pair reached 1.0960 and consolidated at 1.0962. It is expected to find support at 1.0853 and resistance at 1.1036.
The euro was lower than the British Pound, and the EUR/GBP pair lost 0.23 percent trading at 0.7016.
Against the yen the euro was higher with the EUR/JPY pair adding 0.37 percent to trade at 135.39.
The dollar index fell 0.7 percent from a three month high of 98.151 reached on Tuesday, down to 97.304 by Wednesday 05:30 GMT.
Against the yen the dollar was higher than its one month high, the USD/JPY pair reached 124.48 in morning trade, it consolidated at 124.22. The pair was expected to find support at 123.95 and resistance at 124.63.
The AUD/USD pair added 0.15 percent to trade at 0.7431.
The Australian dollar towered over its U.S. counterpart in trading as it was supported by high consumer price data and a positive economic survey.
A stronger dollar, big companies like OPEC maintaining high production and Iran’s close re-entry to the oil market have all been pushing oil prices lower.
West Texas Intermediary (WTI) for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 0.51 percent and traded at 50.60 dollars a barrel.
Brent Crude for September delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was at 56.34 dollars a barrel.
Gold for August delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 0.99 percent and traded at 1.092.60 dollars a troy ounce.
Elsewhere on the Comex silver for September delivery lost 0.59 percent to trade at 14.698 dollars a troy ounce, while copper for September delivery lost 0.84 percent to trade at 2.455 dollars a pound.
FxNet Market News
After rising on Tuesday, the euro was lower on Wednesday as Greece’s Syriza party urged for a new funding agreement and not a bridge loan.
The EUR/USD pair lost 0.13 percent to its lowest level since the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] of July at 1.0866.
The bank sector share index FTATBNK in Athens’ Stock Exchange lost 14.8 percent in early deals on Tuesday. Athens bourse’s benchmark general index ATG traded 1.28 percent lower after losing 1.2 percent on Tuesday.
The U.S. dollar which saw some losses on Tuesday rallies against the euro on Wednesday following comments from Atlanta Fed President which supported a September rate hike.
The USD/JPY pair was little changed at 124.39. The AUD/USD pair lost 0.46 percent to 0.7345. The pair was expected to find support at 0.7261 and resistance at 0.7429.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies hit its three and a half months high at 98.218 before settling at 98.096.
Later in the day U.S. ADP job reports for July and ISM service sector activity will be released.
The AUD/NZD pair lost 0.21 percent trading at 1.1263.
Brent oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange added 1.06 percent to 50.52 dollars a barrel.
Crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange added 0.97 percent and traded at 46.19 dollars a barrel during European morning hours.
Gold futures on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange for September delivery tumbled 0.35 percent to 1,086.90 dollars a troy ounce during Wednesday’s morning European hours.
Silver on the Comex for September delivery lost 0.36 percent falling to 14.50 dollars a troy ounce while copper, which fell to its six year low earlier this week, lost 0.63 percent and traded at 2.347 dollars a pound.
The Euro was higher reaching its two week high after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) further devalued its yuan making the currency 4 percent lower in two days.
The EUR/USD added 0.67 percent to 1.1115, its highest level since the 27[SUP]th[/SUP] of July, The EUR/CNY added 2.5 percent to 7.15.
All currencies were affected by the change; the USD/JPY lost 0.52 percent to 124.45, AUD/USD lost 0.53 percent to 0.7266 and NZD/USD lost 0.14 percent to 0.6526.
Elsewhere the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly report showed that its demand growth outlook for 2016 is much higher with expectations for OPEC to lower it supply growth.
U.S. crude fell below the 50 dollar benchmark at 42.99 dollars per barrel while Brent futures were down to 48.92 dollars per barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery added 0.96 percent on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded at 1,118.30 dollars a troy ounce.
Copper prices fell 1.05 percent to 2.307 dollars a pound. Silver futures for September delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 1.05 percent to 2.307 dollars a pound during morning European trading hours.
The dollar rebound from yesterday’s slump and gained momentum despite ongoing concerns over China’s economic slowdown and, US small business borrowing falling for July.
Economic reports on Tuesday showed that manufacturing activity in China contracted at its fastest rate in three years for August, and the service sector activity was also slower raising concerns about global health as the world’s second largest economy shrinks.
The USD/JPY pair adding 0.53 percent to trade at 119.97. EUR/USD lost 0.46 percent trading at 1.1265, after the euro had gained against the dollar on Tuesday as manufacturing activity in Europe was seen weaker than expected.
NZD/USD added 0.47 percent during early Asian trade hitting 0.6369 and consolidating at 0.6360. The pair was expected to find support at 0.6244 and resistance at 0.6481.
AUD/USD added 0.33 percent to 0.7039 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) added 0.2 percent for its second quarter, lower than expectations of a 0.4 percent growth and after a 0.9 percent expansion in the first quarter. The AUD/USD pair was expected to find support at 0.6854 and resistance at 0.7156.
The British Pound was at its 3 month lows after the release of the Markit construction purchasing managers’ index which had gone up to 57.3 for August from July’s 57.1 but failed to reach the expected 57.5. The index still indicated expansion as it read above 50.0.
GBP/USD was at 1.5291 from last night’s 1.5271.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies added 0.32 percent to trade at 95.70.
Investors are looking ahead for Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls. “U.S. payrolls will be the focus, but I doubt it will change the current debate over whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates in the near term or not” said Alvin Tan from Societe Generale.
Expectations are on a job growth of 220,000 for August, after July’s 215,000 increase in July. Unemployment rate is expected to fall from 5.3 percent to 5.2 percent.
Crude oil for October delivery was 2.2 percent lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange trading at 44.41 dollars a barrel during European morning trading hours, and once again falling below the 50 dollar benchmark.
Brent Oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London lost 1.8 percent to trade at 48.67 dollars a barrel. On Tuesday Brent had already lost 8.48 percent.