GBPUSD news - page 91
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Weak on Brexit Fears
Sterling traded weak on renewed Brexit fears on Monday morning in Europe, despite a weak dollar.
Cable traded below the major support of $1.4400 on renewed Brexit fear, seen trading at $1.4373 on Monday, having regained temporarily some 80 pips during the European morning session
The latest YouGov poll showed the Leave side ahead, continuing the trend of rising support for Brexit proponents. The poll was based on a survey of 3500 Britons commissioned by YouGov and found 45% said that they would vote to leave EU compared to 41% supporting the remain side.
The pair broke the low made on $1.43850 and declined to $1.43516.
The short term trend is weak as long as resistance at $1.4450 holds. Any break above $1.4450 would take the pair toward $1.4520 and $1.4580.
Overall bearish invalidation can be seen only above $1.4750, which is a 200-day moving average.
On the lower-side, any break below $1.4380 would drag the pair toward $1.4330 and $1.42896.
Later on Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen will deliver a closely watched speech. Investors are awaiting her reaction to the disappointing nonfarm payrolls, which showed only 38K jobs created in May in the US, likely derailing a June rate hike.
UK Halifax house price index May mm +0.6% vs +0.3% exp
UK Halifax May house price index report 7 June 2016
Stronger than expected readings from this (1 of 3 UK HPI reports) reversing recent trends
GBP unfazed still trying to make its mind up from earlier spike to 1.4660/retreat to 1.4492
GBPUSD 1.4517 EURGBP 0.7830
GBP/USD: Sterling Advances Toward $1.46, Dollar Weakness Helps
Sterling was slowly crawling toward daily highs during the London session and was seen 1% stronger, trading around $1.4580.
Data released a short while ago showed that house prices rose 9.2% 3m/y in May, while the monthly change came out at 0.6%, well up from -0.8% booked in April, Halifax reported. This also supported the pound.
"The underlying slowdown in house price growth reported by the Halifax ties in with clear evidence that housing market activity has slowed markedly after being buoyed through the first quarter by buy-to-let and second home sectors rushing to beat April’s Stamp Duty increase for these sectors," Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight said on Tuesday.
Earlier in the day, the GBP/USD currency pair strengthened aggressively, jumping from $1.4470 to $1.4660 in seconds, before erasing most of the gains.
GBP/USD: Sterling at Intraday Highs After Factory Data
According to the UK Office for National Statistics release, industrial production year-on-year swelled to 1.6% from -0.2% booked previously, while the yearly change in manufacturing production improved to 0.8% from -1.9%. Both releases concerned April and both surpassed analysts' estimates.
The main drivers were exports of pharmaceuticals and higher demand for cars at home and abroad, the ONS said. Electricity and gas production also rose, given the significantly colder-than-normal weather.
Sterling pushed to daily highs after the numbers, with the GBP/USD pair spotted 0.25% stronger on the day, trading around $1.4575.
Traders have been mostly ignoring macro data in recent weeks and have instead been focusing solely on the Brexit situation.
According to the announced schedule, this week will bring two more public debates on the Brexit issue - one in the UK's parliament on Wednesday, and the second on Thursday, again on ITV, with three representatives supporting "Leave" and three participants supporting "Remain".
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GBP/USD: Sterling Stays in Red as Early Morning Drop Weighs
Sterling was unable to recoup any major portion of its losses against the greenback during US market hours, amid upbeat initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories in April.
According to the Department of Labor, the weekly release from the labor market improved to a six-week low of 264,000 during the week of June 4, bringing a welcomed piece of positive information after the highly disappointing May employment report which all but ended the chance of an early rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
In addition, wholesale inventories jumped 0.6% in April, the best performance since June 2015 after a revised minor hike of 0.2% booked a month ago.
Nevertheless, cable was trading 0.30% lower at $1.4460, slightly bouncing back from an intraday low of $1.4446, while the US dollar index jumped about 0.4% to 93.97 points from a monthly low of 93.41 seen on June 8.
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UK construction output May mm +2.5% vs +1.4% exp
UK May construction output report 10 June 2016
UK Market Insight: Sterling Swings to Partly Define Inflation Path
The annual rate of UK inflation is expected to have bounced back to 0.4% in May, after slipping down to 0.3% a month before mostly on the back of Easter effect. The core inflation, which strips out volatile prices of food and energy, is seen remaining steady at 1.2%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is releasing fresh data next Tuesday.
The inflation data comes at a time of increased volatility ahead of the European Union (EU) referendum, which many analysts consider as one of the year's biggest risks.
The Bank of England (BoE) warned in its latest forecast that an EU referendum outcome in favor of Brexit could "materially alter" the growth and inflation outlook and the framework for monetary policy.
If a Brexit happens, inflation is seen rising at a notably faster rate, driven primarily by the significant pass-through effect from the sharp depreciation of sterling. Brexit could indeed lead to higher inflation, but also to lower growth, and higher unemployment – an asymmetric situation that would require the BoE to maneuver very cautiously between the two tides.
Even when stripped of the increased level of uncertainty, the BoE sees short-term inflation rising slightly faster when compared with its previous forecast, reaching 1.3% in the first quarter of next year, before overshooting the 2% target in the second quarter of 2018.
GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016
The GBP/USD pair initially rallied during the course of the week, but found enough resistance above the 1.45 level again to turn things around and form a shooting star. In fact, it now looks as if we are going to grind a bit lower, perhaps down to the 1.41 level which was so supportive in the past. Short-term rallies will more than likely continue to be selling opportunities as there are quite a few fears when it comes to whether or not the United Kingdom will leave the European Union soon.
GBP/USD: Pound Plunges to 8-Week Low as Poll Sees 'Leave' Campaign Ahead
A poll showing a convincing majority of respondents wanting Britain to cut its ties with the European Union (EU) when Britons vote in the UK referendum next week helped drag sterling lower on Monday morning in Asia.
According to the ORB poll for the Independent, 55% of those surveyed said they wanted to leave the EU, while 45% said they would choose to remain. The poll of just over 2,000 does not include undecided voters.
The GBP/USD fell 0.54% to 1.4176 on Monday morning in Asia from Friday's close of 1.4250, down more than 2% from last week's high of $1.4599 and the weakest level since mid April.
The same poll conducted a year earlier had the 'Remain' vote favored by 60/40.
GBP/USD: Sterling Trims Losses But Stays Pressured
Sterling erased part of the daily losses and was around 40 pips up from daily lows, trading at $1.4160 heading into the US session. The pair was still 0.60% lower on the day.
According to the latest ORB poll for the Independent, 55% of those surveyed said they wanted to leave the EU, while 45% said they would choose to remain. The poll of just over 2,000 does not include undecided voters.
It would appear that the Brexit risk is still widely underpriced, with US stocks near historic highs and sterling still above $1.40 against the greenback. Further weakness is likely in the near future, should the next polls show rising support for Brexit.