Chambers of commerce say interest rate rise would derail recovery
BCC says signs of weakness in the second quarter suggest that UK firms not yet ready for rate rise
British businesses are calling on the Bank of England not to rush into an interest rate rise, warning that the recovery is not yet secure as a closely watched report on Tuesday shows a slowdown in exports.
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) says its latest quarterly poll of thousands of companies shows their performance slipped on key measures such as overseas sales and investment during the last three months when compared with a strong start to 2014.
The business group said its findings still pointed to a solid pace of growth for the UK, but were a reminder that the recovery was not entrenched and rebalancing the economy still had a way to run.
It warned against an early move to raise borrowing costs after recent comments from Bank of England policymakers have raised expectations that a hike could come before the end of the year.
"These results reinforce the case against the Bank of England making any hasty decisions on raising interest rates in the very short-term," said BCC director general John Longworth.
"By driving up the cost of credit for fast-growing firms, many of whom do not sit on the same healthy cash piles as their more established counterparts, early rate rises may mean more limited growth ambitions among the very firms we are counting on to drive the recovery.
"We must nurture the business confidence we are seeing at present by giving firms the security of working in a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future – with eventual rises both moderate and predictable."
The survey of around 7,000 companies across manufacturing and services found that on the whole businesses reported conditions above long-run trends. Its balances, which represent the number of firms reporting an improvement from those reporting a deterioration in a particular area such as orders or hiring, were mostly stronger than their 2007 pre-recession levels.
But after an unusually strong first quarter, all the export and investment balances fell in the second quarter.
There was a mixed picture for jobs, with the balance deteriorating somewhat for manufacturing although still showing employment rising in the sector. The employment expectations balance also dropped.
For the much larger services sector, the jobs balance for the past three months rose but the employment expectations balance slipped back slightly.
The BCC said all the survey's confidence balances remained "relatively strong" but intentions to raise prices eased and concerns around interest rate rises rose.
Interest rates have been at a record low 0.5% for more than five years and while no economists expect any action at this week's meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC), Bank governor Mark Carney has said the decision about when to tighten policy is "becoming more balanced".
The Trade Manager Pro EA is a MetaTrader Expert Advisor that performs position management for you avoiding human errors and enhancing your trading activity.
Amazingly easy to use Trade easily from the chart Trade with precise risk management, hassle free Capital preservation is top priority Let profits run without your attention Enjoy risk-free trades as soon as possible Automatic trailing stops for all opened trades Initial stop losses are placed as soon as trades are
The script is intended for automatic placing of Sell Stop pending orders, Stop Losses and Take Profits on the user specified levels. This script is not that useful as "Virtual pending buy stop", since short positions are opened as Bid price crosses the levels. Thus spread widening is not dangerous. Nevertheless, you need to have this script to prevent unwanted hitting of the Stop Loss levels.
Automation of the process of placing the Sell Stop pending orders, Stop Losses and T
The fractal analysis of the markets is used in the indicator operation algorithm. According to the fractals theory, after the breakthrough of the fractal level confirmed by the closing price located below or above the fractal, the trend wave in the direction of the breakthrough starts to develop. Until the fractal has been passed in the opposite direction, the trend is considered to be acting even if the price is flat or moves backwards. If a bullish fractal has been previously broken through on
The indicator displays economic news on the currency chart (the appropriate data must be downloaded from the Internet - please see the download instructions on the screenshots provided). The list of currencies (countries) is customizable. By default it shows all currencies. The main parameters come with a built-in description. In addition, there are parameters for advanced users. News items are divided into 3 categories by degree of importance. There is a great flexibility in display parameter s
Averager is intended for averaging your deals that has had a drawdown or had gone against the trend.
An example of operation of the averager in an Exeprt Advisor in the MetaTrader 5 terminal: Exp - TickSniper. The system is identical to the averaging system created for MetaTrader 4. A demo version of the averager for MetaTrader 5: Averager DEMO.Note: this is not an automated trading system (the EA doesn't work in the strategy tester). It monitors your deals and averages them in case o
MACD All MAs-14 is a MACD indicator that allows choosing usual parameters of the standard MACD (constructed from EMA) as well as the type of the moving average to be applied: up to 14 different types.
You can select 9 standard MAs available in MetaTrader 5 - SMA, EMA, SMMA, LWMA, DEMA, TEMA, Frama, VIDYA, AMA, TRIX, and 4 non-standard - LRMA, HMA, JMA, AFIRMA.
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Does not support hedging orders on a single symbol on MT5
MultiMTCopier MT5Source - new and improved multi-terminal positions copier for your real / demo account, works faster, requires less, flexible in managing and upgrading, new information support. This expert is designed for terminal MetaTrader5 from which the position will be copied.
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The script is intended for automatic placing of Buy Stop pending orders, Stop Losses and Take Profits on the user specified levels.
Avoiding unwanted entering a long position in case of false hitting the level as a result of widening of the spread by a dealing center. Avoiding unwanted triggering of a Stop Loss in case a quote pierces a significant level (fractal) without further confirmation with the close price. Setting a necessary virtual order and entering the market in
A script for opening a grid of orders
If you need to quickly open several pending orders (Buy Limit, Sell Limit, Buy Stop, Sell Stop) on a certain distance from the current price, this script will do all the routine for you! Allow AutoTrading before running the script.
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qAutoActivation indicator is one of the main components of Trading Chaos Expert trading expert panel. The indicator displays the current trend on the current timeframe. This is the first indicator that is attached to the chart and saved in the trading complex template. It defines what trading signals from the expert panel should be automated for market entry (bullish or bearish ones).
When the trend changes, the indicator changes the line color and, at the same time, highlights the trading pane
The Expert Advisor implements the classic "triangular arbitrage", which is successfully used by hedge funds.
"Triangular" arbitrage refers to a class of neutral-market strategies, in which the profit or loss of open positions does not depend on the direction of the market movement as a whole.
In order to take profit, the EA exploits a weak spot of market makers - it utilizes the difficulty of balancing cross rates of all currency pairs.
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Auto Trade Driver is an automatic powerful tool (run as Expert Advisor) that helps you to manage risk and control orders and maximize your profit in multi-protect/trailing-stop rules.
This tool is very useful for both scalpers and trend followers. It not only calculates the trade risk exactly, but also protects and maximizes your profits in real-time.
With this tool, the only thing you have to do is to enter trade by your own strategy, then it will auto-drive your position with exit strategy y
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a purpose-built trend trading charting system that has been successfully used in nearly every tradable market. It is unique in many ways, but its primary strength is its use of multiple data points to give the trader a deeper, more comprehensive view into price action. This deeper view, and the fact that Ichimoku is a very visual system, enables the trader to quickly discern and filter "at a glance" the low-probability trading setups from those of higher proba
Virtual TrailingStop is an Expert Advisor that manages trailing stop without sending its information to the broker server.
EnableVirtualTrailingStop: enable or disable whole function VirtualTrailingStop: the pip use for determine how far the Virtual Trailing Stop will placed calculated from current price StartFromBreakEven: true/false. If true, Virtual Trailing Stop will placed after breakeven BreakEvenPoint: point profit from order open price where the Virtual T
Exp COPYLOT CLIENT for MT5 is a copier for the МetaТrader 5 platform. It copies forex trades from any accounts. Including those from terminals МТ5 and МТ4.
Install the Expert Advisor in the terminal where you want to copy trades. Specify any text label name as pathRead, for example, "COPY". This should match the master terminal (to bind the two terminals). To copy trades, you need to install the free Master copier in the terminal from where you want to copy the trades: COPYLOT
COSMOS4U Volume indicator facilitates your trade decisions. It gives confirmation of the running movement and market trends. It highlights current and past accumulation and distribution volumes, comparing them to moving average volume and the highest volume. In addition, it identifies and marks nuances as well as convergence and divergence patterns of bears and bulls in order to provide the market trend and price ranges.
The supported features are as follows:
Fast Volume Moving Average Slow
The indicator represents an additional chart window with a lower time frame where bars are combined into groups that are equivalent in time to main chart time frame. Bars are synchronized by the right hand side of the window, i.e. the time of the last bar in the main window corresponds to the time of the last bar group in the additional window. The maximum number of groups is 16; the maximum number of bars combined into groups in the additional window is 256. Limitations on the numbers are requi
The most profitable trend traders are the ones who know how to recognize not only the market trend, but also the trading opportunities that arise once a trend has been established. The Pz Trend Trading indicator has been designed to profit has much as possible from trends taking place in the maket.
Established trends offer dozens of trading opportunities, but most trend trading indicators neglect them completely, and leave the trader completely uninformed about what the market is doing during a
Trade Copier Pro is a powerful tool to copy trade remotely between multiple accounts at different locations over internet. This is an ideal solution for signal provider, who want to share his trade with the others globally on his own rules. One provider can copy trades to multiple receivers and one receiver can get trade from multiple providers as well. The provider can even set the subscription expiry for each receiver, so that receiver will not be able to receive the signal after that
Does not support hedging orders on a single symbol on MT5
MultiMTCopier MT5Receiver - new and improved multi-terminal positions copier for your real/demo account, works faster, requires less, flexible in managing and upgrading, new information support. This Expert Advisor is designed for the MetaTrader 5 terminal, trades will be copied into this terminal.
The EA will copy all positions without delays Additionally integrated notification in situations requiring user attention
We present you an effective software solution for arbitrage between brokers.
The Arbitrage on the market became widespread due to decentralization. There are many liquidity providers, whose quotes differ for various reasons. By tracking the dynamics of changes in the quotes of different brokers, it is possible to determine the delayed and leading brokers, thereby predicting the future prices of the delayed broker for a short time. Knowing these prices and using efficient built-in software filte
The indicator marks supports and resistances of each rebound, also the maximum price and the minimum price of the day.
It has a basis for developing strategies, as well as for a good technical analysis.
It is very easy to detect trends, channels, trend changes, breaks and other events.
It works in any timeframe as in any type of market.
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The indicator determines the inside bar and marks its High/Low. It is plotted based on the closed candles (does not redraw). The identified inside bar can be displayed on the smaller periods. You may set a higher period (to search for the inside bar) and analyze on a smaller one. Also you can see the levels for Mother bar.
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Market Profile defines a number of day types that can help the trader to determine market behaviour. A key feature is the Value Area, representing the range of price action where 70% of trading took place. Understanding the Value Area can give traders valuable insight into market direction and establish the higher odds trade. It is an excellent addition to any system you may be using.
Blahtech Limited presents their Market Profile indicator for the MetaTrader community. Inspired by Jim Dalton’s
CandleTimer is an indicator that can be usable for scalper and short-term traders. It shows the following useful information:
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The script allows users to easily close positions if their profit/loss reaches or exceeds a value specified in pips.
Please set slippage value first. Sometimes some positions do not close due to high volatility of the market. Please set larger slippage or restart the script.
Safe Automatic is a safe MetaТrader 5 trading robot working autonomously on a VPS server. The good results are achieved on EURUSD.
The EA applies modified versions of a trend-following strategy, half-pyramiding, scalping, Elliott Wave method and speculating trading with a deposit protection. The EA switches the strategies automatically. The program also takes the news calendar into account: the robot does not enter the market in a 10-minute interval before and after a news rel
The script creates account summary report in a separate window.
The report can be created for all deals and on deals for selected financial instruments.
It is possible to specify a time interval of calculation and save report to htm-file.
The script creates account summary report in a separate window.
The report can be created for all deals and for deals of the selected financial instruments.
It is possible to specify a time interval of calculation and save report to htm-file.
Auto Trade Copier is designed to copy trades between multi MetaTrader 5 accounts/terminals with 100% accuracy.
With this tool, you can act as either a provider (source) or a receiver (destination). All trading actions will be copied from the provider to the receiver with no delay.
Note: Demo version for testing can be downloaded at: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/5006.
Followings are highlight features:
Switch between Provider or Receiver role within one tool.One provider can copy tr
MetaCOT 2 is a set of indicators and specialized utilities for the analysis of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports. Thanks to the reports issued by the Commission, it is possible to analyze the size and direction of the positions of the major market participants, which brings the long-term price prediction accuracy to a new higher-quality level, inaccessible to most traders.
These indicators, related to the fundamental analysis, can also be used as an effective long-term filte
Pound Erases Decline as Bulls Disregard Output Slump
The pound erased a decline versus the euro as investors bet an unexpected slump in U.K. manufacturing won’t derail Britain’s economic recovery.
Sterling was within 0.4 percent of its strongest level in almost two years against the 18-nation shared currency before the National Institute of Economic and Social Research publishes U.K. growth estimates later today. Britain’s government bonds advanced as the Debt Management Office held its first auction in more than two years of securities due in 2060.
“It’s an unfortunate blip,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London, said of the production data. “I would be surprised if it’s a definitive trend change. We will see a continued trend lower in euro-sterling as we head through the year.”
The pound was little changed at 79.40 pence per euro at 12:55 p.m. London time after weakening as much as 0.2 percent. It touched 79.15 pence yesterday, the strongest level since September 2012. The U.K. currency was at $1.7120 after climbing to $1.7180 on July 4, the highest since 2008.
Sterling earlier declined as much as 0.3 percent versus the dollar after a report showed factory output fell 1.3 percent in May from the previous month, the biggest drop since January 2013. The median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.4 percent increase.
U.K. Economy Expands 0.9% In Q2: NIESR
The U.K. economy is estimated to expand at a faster pace in the second quarter, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said late Tuesday.
Gross domestic product is estimated to expand 0.9 percent in the second quarter, faster than the 0.8 percent growth seen in the first quarter. The institute projected 2.9 percent growth in 2014 and 2.4 percent in 2015.
The think tank said the month-on-month fall in industrial production would weigh only marginally on the wider economy. Moreover, it expects manufacturing to rebound in June.
The Office for National Statistics is slated to publish preliminary GDP data for the second quarter on July 25.
Halifax U.K. HPI falls 0.6% in June
House prices in the U.K. unexpectedly declined in June, fuelling concerns over the health of the housing market, industry data showed on Wednesday.
In a report, the Halifax Bank of Scotland said its House Price Index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase.
U.K. house prices rose by 4.0% in May, whose figure was revised up from a previously reported gain of 3.9%.
House prices in the three months to December were 8.8% higher than in the same three months a year earlier, below forecasts for an 8.9% increase.
Following the release of that data, the pound was little changed against the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD easing down 0.01% to trade at 1.7129.
Meanwhile, European stock markets were mixed after the open. London’s FTSE 100 dipped 0.2%, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 tacked on 0.3%, while Germany's DAX inched up 0.2%.
Interest Rate Decision Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.0.50% we are waiting A higher than expected , which will pull GBP/USD to 1.718 today on the market
U.K. trade in goods deficit widens more than seen
The U.K.'s trade in goods deficit widened in May due to unusually high levels of import activity of aircraft, and serving as a reminder more work is need to rebalance the economy away from consumer spending.
The Office for National Statistics said Thursday that the U.K.'s global goods deficit widened to GBP9.2 billion in May from April's GBP8.8 billion deficit.
The increase was steeper than expected as economists had forecast a goods deficit of GBP8.9 billion.
The rise also highlights the fact that the U.K.'s manufacturing and export sectors still require further support and development in order to rebalance the economy and help to ensure long-term growth which is currently heavily reliant on consumption.
That remains a goal for both the Government and the Bank of England, with BOE Governor Mark Carney in particular often raising the topic in speeches and presentations on the U.K.'s long-term health.
The ONS said the bigger-than-expected increase in the goods deficit was due mainly to aircraft imports, which is a highly erratic item. Figures show GBP1.2 billion worth of aircraft was imported into the country in May, up from GBP800 million in April.
Other figures published by the ONS showed that total trade in goods and services widened to a deficit of GBP2.4 billion in May from GBP2.1 in April. Trade in goods with non-European Union countries, meanwhile, also widened to GBP4.0 billion from GBP3.9 billion a month earlier.
BOE leaves benchmark rate unchanged amid criticism
The Bank of England left the U.K.'s benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday amid criticism that officials are sending confusing signals on when borrowing costs will eventually start to rise.
The central bank said its nine-member Monetary Policy Committee agreed to leave the BOE's main interest rate at a low of 0.5% and the size of its bond portfolio at 375 billion pounds ($637 billion) after officials' two-day meeting.
Rapid economic growth in the U.K. has fueled speculation that Britain's central bank will be the first among its peers to call time on crisis-era policies and begin lifting borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve isn't expected to raise short-term rates in the U.S. until mid-2015. The European Central Bank, faced with sluggish growth and weak inflation, cut rates in June in the 18-nation euro zone.
Investors expect the BOE to move in early 2015, according to contracts that allow traders to bet on future changes in short-term interest rates. Some analysts think the BOE could raise rates even sooner, perhaps in November, if the economy continues to perform well.
BOE Gov. Mark Carney was likened to an "unreliable boyfriend" by British lawmaker Pat McFadden in testimony to parliament June 24, for apparently sending mixed messages to households and businesses on interest rates. Officials have twice overhauled their "forward guidance" on rates after a quicker-than-expected fall in unemployment.
Mr. Carney defended the central bank's communications, saying they helped fuel Britain's recent economic revival. Officials have signaled that benchmark borrowing costs are unlikely to rise above 2.5% to 3% for several years, which they say should help borrowers plan for the future.
The International Monetary Fund expects the U.K. to be the fastest-growing economy in the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations this year. The BOE will publish a new set of economic forecasts Aug. 13.
July's policy meeting was the first for MPC member Ben Broadbent as deputy governor for monetary policy, a role he took over on Charles Bean's retirement at the end of June. It was also the first meeting for Kristin Forbes, a U.S. academic who took over Mr. Broadbent's former slot as one of four MPC members drawn from outside the central bank's ranks.
Andrew Haldane, formerly the BOE's financial stability director, joined the council as chief economist in June. Another slot on the panel will be filled next month when Nemat Shafik, a former IMF official, joins as deputy governor for markets and banking, a new role created in a shake-up of the BOE spearheaded by Mr. Carney.
GBP/USD falls on upbeat U.S. jobless claims report
The dollar firmed against the pound on Thursday after data revealed fewer sought first-time jobless benefits in the U.S. last week than markets were expecting.
In U.S. trading on Thursday, GBP/USD was trading down 0.22% at 1.7121, up from a session low of 1.7105 and off a high of 1.7168.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.7086, Wednesday's low, and resistance at 1.7180, last Friday's high.
Elsewhere, sterling was down against the euro, with EUR/GBP up 0.08% at 0.7950, and down against the yen, with GBP/JPY down 0.34% at 173.87.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 5 declined by 11,000 to 304,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to hold steady at 315,000 last week.
The numbers fueled demand for the greenback on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June policy meeting that forecast an end to stimulus program coming in October.
Meanwhile across the Atlantic, the Bank of England left rates on hold at 0.5% and kept the size of its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion.
The pound weakened against the dollar after official data showed that the U.K. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in May.
The Office for National Statistics reported that the U.K. trade deficit widened to £9.2 billion in May from a deficit of £8.81 billion in April. Economists had expected a deficit of £8.75 billion.
Elsewhere, sterling was up against the euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.09% at 0.7944, and down against the yen, with GBP/JPY down 0.55% at 173.43.
U.K. Construction Unexpectedly Falls as New Public Work Slides
U.K. construction unexpectedly fell in May as demand for new work and repair and maintenance weakened, suggesting the economy may have lost some momentum in the second quarter.
Output declined 1.1 percent from April, when it rose 1.2 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median estimate of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for an increase of 0.9 percent. From a year earlier, construction grew 3.5 percent, the weakest since November 2013.
The data follows a report earlier this week which showed industrial production slumped 0.7 percent in May. While the two indicators suggest a slowing in activity, other data have remained strong. Unemployment slid to the lowest level in more than five years in April and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates gross domestic product grew 0.9 percent in the second quarter, the fastest since 2010.
New work and repair and maintenance both slid 1.1 percent in May from April. Within the new work category, public work excluding infrastructure, which includes schools and hospitals, slumped 4.2 percent and private commercial work fell 3.6 percent. In repair and maintenance, housing slipped 2.3 percent.
In the latest three months, compared with the period ending in February, construction fell 0.8 percent, the weakest since October 2012.
The construction sector accounts for 6.3 percent of the economy. The ONS will release preliminary estimates for second quarter gross domestic product on July 25.
Other reports suggest the construction sector is continuing to expand. Markit Economics said earlier this month that its index of construction showed an acceleration in growth in June. The Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 62.6 from 60 in May.
BOE officials kept their benchmark rate at a record-low 0.5 percent yesterday.
Bank of England says may be case for extra leverage ratio for banks
The Bank of England said on Friday that big British banks and lenders might need to set aside more capital than planned under global rules being drawn up to prevent a repeat of the financial crisis.
Launching a public consultation on a new so-called leverage ratio, the BoE said many financial institutions may have to comply with a requirement to set aside funds on top of a proposed minimum of 3 percent of their capital.
"There may be a case to introduce a supplementary leverage ratio component to a subset of firms (e.g. ring-fenced banks and/or systemically important institutions) whose failure would be most destabilizing for the financial system," the BoE said in a consultation paper.
Such a supplement would effectively cover the bulk of Britain's banks.
British lawmakers want a leverage ratio of 4 percent or above, higher than the proposed global rule for 3 percent, saying tougher measures are needed to ensure taxpayers are not asked to bail out banks as they were in the financial crisis.
British banks have been required to meet the 3 percent target by Jan. 1, 2014, forcing some to raise more capital.
BoE Governor Mark Carney has previously said that 3 percent might not be high enough.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has insisted on a leverage ratio of 5 percent and above for U.S. banks.
The BoE consultation paper did not propose any specific figures for what the leverage ratio, including any supplements, should be.
Global regulators are not due to agree on the level of a leverage ratio for the industry worldwide until 2015 or later, given the disagreements between countries.
The discussions have become increasingly charged as many regulators no longer fully trust the way banks calculate their main core capital buffers. They are based only risk-weighted assets, the value of which is open to debate.
The leverage ratio is based on total assets held by a bank and is therefore seen as less open to interpretation.
The BoE said in its consultation paper that any supplementary leverage ratio would have to be made up of top-quality capital.
The consultation is due to run until Au