CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly data - page 33
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IMM Report: Investors Turned Net Shorts JPY For First Time In 2016
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday November 29 & were released Friday December 2.
The most important detail in this week’s CFTC sentiment report is the turn in JPY sentiment and its plunge into net short / bearish territory for the first time in 2016.
Most other currencies saw limited changes with a modest deterioration in sentiment toward AUD, GBP, and CHF. The net short CAD position was unchanged and investors reduced risk on both sides. EUR and CHF net short positions were also flat w/w however investors added equally to both long and short positions. The aggregate USD long position climbed to a fresh multi-month high with a $2.8bn w/w gain to $26.3bn.
Investors reduced CAD risk, paring both long and short positions for a second consecutive week while leaving the net short unchanged at $1.4bn. The AUD net long narrowed $0.7bn w/w to a fresh multi-month low, dropping almost entirely on the back of a decline in gross longs.
Net short EUR sentiment was unchanged for a second consecutive week as investors added equally to positions on both sides. These newly established positions will be vulnerable to adjustment in the event of a breakout in spot. The net short $15.9bn position is still around the middle of the one year range and remains well off the extended $24.3bn short from December 1, 2015.
JPY sentiment has fallen into bearish territory for the first time in 2016, deteriorating on the back of a sizeable $1.3bn w/w build in gross shorts. The JPY net was last bearish late 2012-early 2016.
CFTC commitment of traders: JPY turns to short side finally.
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the markets o Tuesday, December 6, 2016
CFTC: Speculators More Bullish on Crude Oil; Bearish on Japanese Yen
IMM Report: Traders Put Their JPY Shorts On, Push USD Longs To Highest Since January
Last week’s CFTC positioning report highlighted the fact that speculative investors turned net short (barely) JPY for the first time in 2016. This week’s update suggests that futures traders did little else but pile on JPY shorts this week.
In aggregate, broader sentiment is the most bullish USD since the start of the year. Overall positioning long the USD rose USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday to reach USD29.7bn, the biggest bull bet on the USD since January.
The JPY trade accounted for all of that increase; investors were only small short JPY last week but lifted positioning aggressively through Tuesday to stake out a net short of USD3.7bn—an increase on the week of 34k contracts from basically flat. The bearish positioning swing over the past three months is the largest in four years and reflects the sharp deterioration in JPY sentiment as US-Japan long-term yield spreads widen to the biggest yield premium for the USD since 2010.
EUR sentiment was more or less stable in the week; net EUR shorts remain significant and still represent the biggest single bear bet on the USD and net short exposure was trimmed only modestly running into the ECB meeting.
Net GBP shorts were cut slightly this week and while net shorts were built in the NZD and CHF, the change and net positioning is minor.
CAD sentiment remains largely negative; net exposure was reduced very slightly in the week as both gross shorts and longs pared exposure.
CFTC commitment of traders: EUR short trimmed. JPY shorts increased in the current week
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the markets on Tuesday December 13, 2016
CFTC: Speculators Less Bearish on Euro; More Bearish on Yen; Crude Oil Net Longs at 2-Year High
IMM Report: Investors Hit Pause Ahead Of FOMC
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 13 & were released Friday Dec 16.
CFTC data for the week through Tuesday suggest speculative traders did little but sit on their hands ahead of the outcome of the mid-week FOMC meeting.
EUR traders trimmed short exposure on net (a little—but it remains the biggest, single bull bet on the USD at USD15.2bn). JPY traders added to net JPY shorts (a fair bit less) and that was about it for week—positioning changes elsewhere were very modest.
The market retained a significant net USD long position overall—still effectively the largest in a year—but aggregate positioning was basically flat on the week at USD29.7bn (from USD29.8 last week).
CAD sentiment deteriorated slightly; gross shorts boosted positions while gross long positioning was slightly less active, resulting in a minor increase in net CAD shorts (just USD15mn in the week).
Net short JPY positions increased USD38mn to USD3.7bn, the largest bear punt on the JPY in a year.
Given the lack of change in FX positioning and sentiment this week, we can spare a moment to reflect on the significant build up of bearish sentiment (and positioning) in US Treasury futures, the persistent (though reduced, this week) net short on equity futures and the large build up of speculative net longs in WTI and how a positioning shake out in one or some of these markets might spill over into FX trends and sentiment.
CFTC Commitment of traders: Shorts in EUR and GBP are trimmed
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the markets on Tuesday, December 20, 2016
CFTC: Speculators Less Bearish on EUR, GBP, S&P 500; More Bullish on Oil
CFTC commitment of traders:JPY shorts increase into to last week of 2016
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the markets on Tuesday, December 27, 2016