CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly data - page 31
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CFTC: Speculators More Bearish on Euro; More Bullish on Crude Oil
IMM Report: JPY Bulls Lose Faith As EUR Bears Gain Confidence
This week’s major changes in sentiment are once again limited to the G4 with highlights that include a sizeable $2.8bn drop in bullish JPY positions and a $2.4bn build in bearish EUR bets.
EUR remains the largest held net short, followed by GBP. JPY is the largest held net long, followed by AUD.
The aggregate long USD position is up a notable $3.3bn w/w to $16.6bn, its highest level since the market turmoil from early February.
EUR’s net short position has widened $1.4bn w/w to $12.9bn and investors are adding to EUR risk on both sides. Those with newly established positions are vulnerable to a break— crucially the EUR bulls that have built their gross longs at an accelerated pace over the past four consecutive weeks.
GBP’s flash crash had a relatively minor impact on positioning with a modest decline in risk to both sides. The net short position remains sizeable at $7.2bn with a $0.5bn narrowing from last week’s record.
The net short CAD position is relatively unchanged on a w/w basis, narrowing modestly to $0.9bn as investors pare risk to both sides. CAD bulls appear to be losing confidence, delivering a third consecutive week of decline in gross longs. Short positions appear relatively muted on a historical basis.
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Dollar longs hit highest since January
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the market on Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The total net US dollar long position is at the most extreme since January. That's as bets increase on a December rate hike. The swings lately have been a cut in yen longs, which have been nearly halved in two weeks.
The euro short is back into triple-digits but it's still a long ways from the extremes of last year.
Speculators boost U.S. dollar bets to nine month-high: CFTC, Reuters
Speculators raised favorable bets on the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight week, with net longs hitting their highest in roughly nine months, Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $18.44 billion in the week ended Oct. 18, from $14.72 billion the previous week. This week's net dollar position was the largest since late January, having exceeded $10 billion for three consecutive weeks.
Expectations of an impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the December policy meeting have continued to support the dollar, which has gained more than 3 percent so far this month. The U.S. currency was on track for its best monthly performance since January 2015.
"A December rate hike is broadly acknowledged as much more likely to occur than one in November," said James Chen, head of research at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
However, Chen pointed out that as "safer" Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton continues to widen her lead in the race for the White House over her more market-moving rival, Republican candidate Donald Trump, the risk imposed by the election could continue to diminish.
"This possibly leaves the door open, however narrowly, for the Fed to make a move in November," he said.
The euro net short position, meanwhile, hit its largest since late July at 109,268 contracts, data showed.
Europe's shared currency has been under pressure all week and dovish signals from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday suggested further scope for the euro to weaken further.
"It appears that the ECB's vast asset-buying program may likely increase instead of decrease ... and the euro is now targeting the $1.0800 support level to the downside," said Forex.com's Chen.
So far this month, the euro has lost more than 3 percent of its value against the dollar.
In other contracts, Japanese yen net long futures continued to fall, now at 36,991 contracts, their lowest level in three months.
CFTC: Speculators More Bullish on U.S. Dollar; Euro Net Shorts at 3-Month High
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CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR shorts the largest since January 2016
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the market on Tuesday Oct 25, 2016
CFTC: Speculators Euro Net Short Positions at 9-Month High
CFTC Commitments of Traders: They love the Aussie and hate the euro
Forex futures market positioning data as of the close of the market on Tuesday Nov 1, 2016
U.S. dollar net longs hit more than ninth-month high: CFTC, Reuters data
Speculators increased positive bets on the U.S. dollar for a sixth straight week, with net longs touching their highest in more than nine months, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position advanced to $20.78 billion in the week ended Nov. 1, from $18.81 billion the previous week. This week's net long dollar position was the largest since late January.
Over the last few months, the dollar's positive momentum has been driven by expectations the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month. An October U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday was generally viewed as positive overall despite coming out lower than expected with 161,000 jobs created.
"The October jobs report was generally better than expected despite the headline miss, and does not contain anything to deter the Fed from raising rates in December as we and many investors presently expect," said Marvin Loh, senior global markets strategist at BNY Mellon in Boston.
The chances of a rate hike increased further and currently point to an 80 percent chance that the Fed raises the funds rate by 25 basis points in six weeks.
For the month of October, the dollar index rose more than 3 percent, although it pulled back a little bit this month, sliding 1.5 percent.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election has yet to figure in a significant way among speculative investors. The general perception though is that a victory by Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would be positive for the dollar because it would mean a continuation of the Fed's current monetary policy, said Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.
Sterling net short contracts, meanwhile, continued its decline to 82,961 contracts, the lowest since late September. Short contracts on the pound have fallen for five straight weeks.
Worries have eased that Britain would undergo a "hard" exit from the European Union and lose its access to the single market. The pound has rebounded nearly 3 percent this week to register its best weekly performance against the dollar since October 2009.
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