CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly data - page 25
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Takeaways From This Week's COT Report - USD Positioning At Its Bearish Level Since May'14
Investor sentiment continues to shift away from the USD, the aggregate USD short widening a modest $2.3bn w/w to $4.1bn— its most bearish level since May 2014.
Details hint to confidence in most of the major currencies and bulls are driving much of the shift for AUD and CAD. Investors appear to have pared risk in JPY and have been relentless in covering their short EUR positions.
EUR remains the largest held short at $5.6bn, despite a five month run of short covering. The sizeable short leaves EUR vulnerable to further positioning adjustments.
GBP sentiment has improved for the first time in six weeks, with a $0.5bn narrowing in the net short to $4.4bn. Rising longs drove the improvement in sentiment, overwhelming a slight increase in shorts. Note that shorts are at their most extended levels since 2013.
CAD sentiment has improved for a 13th consecutive week with a cumulative $5.7bn swing off the extended $4.7bn net short from late January. In contract terms, the CAD net long has exceeded the 2015 high to reach levels last seen in September 2014, and details hint to the potential for further improvement as we consider the recent handoff from bears (covering) to bulls (building).
The story for AUD is similar, as bulls continue to drive the bulk of the improvement in sentiment (mid right p2). The $4.6bn net long AUD position is at its highest level since April 2013.
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Everyone was offside
Weekly CFTC positioning data in the Commitments of Traders report for the close on Tuesday, May 3, 2016:
CFTC: Speculators Less Bearish on EUR, GBP; More Bullish on Gold, CAD; Less Bullish on Oil, JPY, AUD
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Positions pared in most currencies
Weekly CFTC positioning data in the commitments of traders report for the close on Tuesday, May 10, 2016:
CFTC - Commitments of Traders - No Major Changes in Speculative Positions
Takeaways From This Week's COT Report: A Threat To CAD Longs
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday May 10 & were released Friday May 13. Data encompass the RBA policy decision but not the Alberta fires or the weak Cdn trade.
IMM data reveal only limited changes in speculative positioning in the week through May 3rd. For the most part, hedge fund and CTA-type accounts’ positioning appears to be consolidating, with the aggregate bearish bet against the USD falling modestly in the week to –USD5.5bn, from –USD6.7bn in the prior week as most FX positions were reduced from the prior week.
Investors chose to increase net bullish bets on the CAD despite the softness (and apparent bearish reversal) seen in the currency since the start of the month. The minor rebound in the CAD through the early part of this week may have given investors an opportunity to reduce positioning but, in the latest week’s data, net exposure rose some 7k contracts or USD515m, to the highest level (+25.8k contracts) since February 2013. This clearly suggests some corrective (bearish) positioning risk for the CAD going forward.
Elsewhere, investors boosted bearish bets in the MXN and cut bullish bets in the AUD while trimming bullish bets in the JPY modestly (2.5k contracts equivalent). Positioning suggests markets were not necessarily motivated by risk seeking or risk averse behavior.
Net EUR shorts were cut modestly this week while net GBP shorts were cut by USD517mn (5.5k contracts).
source
CFTC Commitment of Traders: AUD longs pared 13K. Other currencies little changed
- EUR short 23K vs 22K short prior week
- GBP short 38K vs. 35K short prior week
- JPY long 59K vs 59K long prior week
- CAD long 23K vs 26K long prior week
- CHF long 4K vs 7K long prior week
- AUD 25K long K vs. 38K long prior week
- NZD long 7K vs 9K long prior week
The largest change in position this week was 13K fall in the net long position in the AUD. The AUD position has been long since Feb 16 week. The AUDUSD did rally until April 21. The long position peaked on April - around the time of the highest high. Since that time, the price has come off sharply. while the position remains long. Easy come. Easy go for the speculative positions.CFTC - Commitments of Traders: Speculators More Bullish on Crude Oil
Takeaways From This Week's COT Report: GBP Largest Held Short For 2nd Consecutive Week
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday May 17 & were released Friday May 20.
FX sentiment was remarkably quiet for the week ended May 17—just ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release. Positioning data show muted changes for both EUR and JPY, a reduction in bullish AUD and CAD positions, and a modest widening in the GBP short (note Tuesday’s position date just ahead of its poll-driven rally). JPY remains the largest held net long and GBP has held its position as the largest held net short for a second consecutive week. The bearish aggregate USD position has moderated.
Bullish CAD sentiment has softened a modest $0.3b to a net long $1.8bn position, its first deterioration since late January.The deterioration in sentiment ends a 15 week run of improvement that provided for a cumulative $6.7bn swing off the extended bearish levels from late January. We note that this week’s turn resulted from a paring of CAD risk to both sides with a decline in longs and shorts—suggesting uncertainty on the part of market participants.
AUD sentiment deteriorated for a third consecutive week, with an impressive $1.0bn decline in the net long position to $1.8bn. AUD bulls have pared risk in each of the past three weeks. Note this week’s signal with a renewed build in bearish short AUD positions.
Investors have pared JPY risk for the third week in four, reducing both long and short positions to suggest a lack of confidence with regards to the near term path. Bullish JPY sentiment remains elevated at the upper end of its historical range, just shy of the record $8.2bn net long position from mid-April.
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Dollar bulls return, AUD longs bail
Weekly positioning data from the CFTC for forex futures as of the close on May 24, 2016: