Daily Forex Technical Analysis - page 5
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Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013.10.07
Negative bias strengthened in earlier trading due to risk appetite gradually fading, leading the currency pair near support at 161.8% of 0.9145 to 0.9457, at 0.8954. On Friday we saw a bounce up as prices approached a key support level but also due to investors hoping to a breakthrough of U.S. fiscal deadlock.Falling trend line together with all SMAs being above prices suggest that downward trend is valid, which is confirmed by Average Directional Index. However, the CCIcreates some concerns due to falling below -80 line but there is still room to go lower while Stochastic does not provide any contrarian signal.
Therefore in our view bearish bias would resume and is likely to breach support at 0.8954 ahead of next downside hurdle at lower Bollinger band around 0.8863.
Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013.10.08
Valid surging trend line indicates that the currency pair positive structure is more likely to continue coupled by SMAs being below prices. Moreover, prices have recently found resistance at 1.6263 near 161.8% extension of 1.6162 to 1.5948, at 1.6300, thus we consider the 1.6300/1.6263 a cap zone.The Average Directional Index confirms the strength of the positive structure however the short-term OsMA and RSI(14) suggests that the bias is negative. We conclude that prices are more likely to retrace even lower towards rising trend line at 1.5948 before we see attempt to resume upside.
Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013.10.09
The currency pair downward structure seems damaged by the near term bullish “failure swing” that drove to resistance near the 50 SMA at 97.46. The down trend though still appears strong with a valid falling trend line providing a natural resistance coupled by upper Bollinger band at 97.75.Concerning oscillators the Commodity Channel Index rose above previous peaks line at 180, OsMA approaches our subjective upper level of previous highs, while MACD is still negative even though above its signal line.
Thus, we consider the USDJPY would probably be limited by resistance at 97.46 or even by higher cap at 97.75 before retreats to surging trend line, we also expect narrowing of the trading range due to potential triangle formation.
Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013.10.10
The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback with the USDCAD currency pair edging at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of1.0563 to 1.0180, at 1.0415. In the longer term we saw a double top formation, breaching neckline at 1.0243, followed by a “bear trap” formation which introduced rising prices.Observing oscillators, the RSI(14) is positively structured confirming rising prices, while CCI is deep into overbought zone exceeding 200 line creating concerns over bullish potentials but is not confirmed by Stochastic.
In our view, the combination of key Fibonacci cap at 1.0415 with extreme up CCI limits substantially chances for higher prices in the immediate term although we expect in the medium term the pair to head towards the top of 1.0608/1.0243 range.
Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013.10.14
Tentative soaring trend line is still valid indicating growing development keeps its potential for higher prices. Double bottom trading pattern as well as 100 and 50 SMAsare below prices and moving towards a Golden Cross, all that increase chances for a bull ran. Nonetheless, prices seem unable to reach resistance at 0.9527 as they are extending into consolidation around 0.9463 in the near term.OsMA is now turning into positive ground strengthening the price pattern signals for upside possibilities, backed by a short-term RVI that is growing and remains above its smoothing line. Thus, in our opinion chances are favoring further highs for the AUDUSD.
Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013.10.15
The negatively structured currency pair has found support at 0.8954 in the last two weeks and bounced up limited by cap at 0.9145 which was previously support. Prices have breached short-term SMA but are now creating doji candlesticks around 20 SMA with 50 SMA still way above.Short-term oscillators are suggesting downside resumption as the Stochasticentered the overbought zone in a down trending market indicating that buyers have likely lost their power, confirmed by Williams percent range that have also rose into overbought territory and is now crossing -20 line from above.
Interestingly though, breaching key resistance at 0.9145 could create a reversal pattern in the lower time frame, coupled by bullish RSI(14), shifting focus to 0.9291. Thus we would be watching closely USDCHF development.
Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013.10.16
The longer term resistance zone at 1.6335/1.6253 where previous peaks formed, drove the pair below 20 and 10 SMA at 23.6% of 1.4828 to 1.6253, at 1.5919. In the last two weeks a possible reversal also increased downside chances, however surging trend line remains solid as prices failed to breach support at 1.5919, backed by 50 SMA providing an extra support at 1.5805.Looking at the oscillators, RSI(14) has correctly provided a bearish divergence as prices consequently declined but at the moment is neutral. Stochastic has dipped to oversold zone and then crossed the 25 line heading higher suggesting resumption of the positive bias, while OsMA is currently at previous troughs line recommending being contrarian on the downside.
Therefore, we consider prices more likely not to continue lower than 1.5919 in the immediate term but rather to attempt to lift towards 1.6253.
Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013.10.17
In the longer term we have plotted a potential symmetrical triangle shape which increase chances of continuation of the last year’s initiated up trend. We would be watching the falling and surging trend lines and upside breaching would confirm theory. On the contrary downside break would increase bearish chances but we would seek for more indications to follow.In the intraday, bias is to the downside and should the 97.72 fail to hold it then we expect prices to move as low as 97.21. MACD is below zero although above its signal line suggesting that upside could easily resume providing credibility to support at97.21. Stochastic is bearish since it just retreated from overbought zone but OsMAdoes not confirm that.
EUR/USD H1,H4,Daily and Weekly Video Analysys on
EURUSD DXY Elliott Wave Analysys 171013 - YouTube
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Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013.10.18
Recently established bearish structure drove prices to support at lower Bollinger band at 1.0279 and in the intraday has extended in sideways between 1.0299/1.0279. Downtrend has increased chances for lower ground although risk of NFP may hold the USDCAD in that consolidation zone until Tuesday.MACD confirms negative structure of the price pattern since it is below zero and lower than its signal line. However, the Stochastic is bullish amid has just escaped oversold territory and heading upward while RSI(14) is declining but just dropped below 30 line, providing us conflicting signals.In our opinion, chances favor the bears although we are cautious since we are ahead of major employment report.