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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 16, 2011
AUD/USD is now trading within impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C is still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart). This wave also has its subwaves, they are A, and B (colored red in the chart) that is developing from 1.0775.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0628.
Resistances:
- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP
If the price keeps falling the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0775, 1.0775-1.0679-1.0737.
Supports:
- 1.0641 = OP
- 1.0582-77 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .382 retracement
- 1.0559 = OP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/JPY Elliott wave count for February 16, 2012
Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair was trading in a bullish mood for the last 10 days, yesterday in a European session after raising doubts about the Greek debt this major pair started falling under the 50 and 100 EMA support line and reached a new low few pips above the 200 EMA support around the 102.20 level.today in the early Asian session price continued a downward move to the 102.00 level slightly under 200 EMA support line. The EUR/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and price started rising to 100 EMA Resistance, we are expecting to see price back to 102.00 before we can see price under the 101.50 level.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 101.41 (S2) 101.91 (S1) 102.22 (PP) 102.71 (R1) 103.21 (R2) 103.52 (R3) 104.01
EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The EUR/JPY pair finished 5 waves in the i wave at 101.91, and started a new 3 wave correction in ii wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave ii will retrace 61.8% or 78.6% of wave i we can project our targets with Fibonacci retracement(103.47-101.91) to first take profit level at 102.87(61.8% of wave i) and second take profit at 103.14(78.6% of wave i).For stop loss we can use end of wave i at 101.91.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why Long position at levels 102.50 with Stop Loss at 101.91, Take Profit at 102.87 and Take Profit 2 at 103.14 are recommended
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/CAD Elliott wave count for February 16, 2012
Market Overview
The USD/CAD pair was trading in a upward move yesterday, in a early European session this major pair tested 50 EMA 2 time before a price broke above the 200 EMA resistance line.Today in a Asian session price continued in a bullish mood and price reached a new high at the 1.0030 level, in a European session price continued to push reaching the 1.0050 level.We are expecting to see breaking to the 0.9954 level today.We need to take a look at USA Building Permits, PPI m/m,Unemployment Claims,Philly Fed Manufacturing Index that could affect this pair
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9914 (S2) 0.9939 (S1) 0.9954 (PP) 0.9979 (R1) 1.0004 (R2) 1.0019 (R3) 1.0044
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished (1) wave of the bigger iii wave at 1.0051 today, and started 3 corrective waves in (2) wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (2) will retrace 61.8% or 78.6% of wave (1) we can project our targets with Fibonacci retracement(1.0051-0.9937) to first take profit level at 0.9981(61.8% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 0.9962(78.6% of wave (1).For stop loss we can use end of wave i at 1.0051.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the downward movement to go lower today. That is why Short position at levels 1.0020 with Stop Loss at 1.0051, Take Profit at 0.9981 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9962 are recommended
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, For February 17 / 2012
Exit a week in which little has been done in Europe to revive Greece and solve the problem of debt.
As in several months, taking meetings and summits, conferences, warnings and even threats. It has called on Greece to impose very harsh adjustment plans, which he did. But no sign of an agreement committing their future.
It's simple. In light of the public, no one can be exposed to the best deal for Europe is that Greece abandon the euro area. But it's the truth. Then look further complicate the situation in the country Hellene changing conditions that are necessary to send money to save their collapse.
Greece, who since joining the euro area had a policy on waste of resources and political patronage, through the support of whom the request and falsified statistics to enter it now appears as the only culprit in this situation.
But did all of Europe that, and so did the banks and rating agencies, whose task is to investigate and advise, and seems to have discovered too late that Greece was not perhaps the best destinations for investment.
So the intermediate output, which appeared in these days is to approve aid for Greece, but to delay implementation until the elections scheduled for april. Before, of course, you will receive 14.4 billion euros, payable on 20 in March. The worst solution, doing things by little, without conviction, and courage will deliver both partners: Europe to send money that you know will never recover, and Greece in the euro zone out of it just because it would mean a catastrophe worse the present.
Besides all that the euro's fall was arrested Thursday in the U.S. session, and began to catch up on par with other leading currencies.
Friday's meeting operating on the European stock markets higher, with moderate gains, with the Dow Jones index futures recovered their losses on Wednesday.
As for the other currencies, the pound was strengthened by a retail sales data in Britain is much higher than expected, while the yen continues its downward trend, with the U.S. economic recovery for investors from currency refuge.
Particularly in the United States is expected to publish the retail inflation index of 8:30 Eastern, which could show an increase of 0.3% in January. Also be known, issued by the Conference Board leading indicators indicator which would have a positive tone for the fourth consecutive month, highlights the progress of the world's largest economy.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, February 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
GBP/USD
The British pound - U.S. Dollar pair, yesterday broke its downtrend line short term due to rumors of a move by the ECB in an exchange of Greek bonds. Investors appear on guard and are awaiting further news and fundamental news, especially from Europe on the issue of Greek rescue plan.
On a technical level, the pair is trading right now at 1.5820, is backing its maximum yesterday, if the trend continues, we expect a reversal to the fractal 1.5700 and buy at this level with a medium term objective 1.60 the key psychological level.
Indicators of MCD, and range, show levels of resistance and overbought.
instaforex.com/sp/forex_analysis/50890/
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 17, 2012 (weekly Strategy)
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair remains bullish trend line for the moment we expect to continue rising.
On the other hand, only a definitive break its line of short-term trend. and a close below this will be the beginning of a sequence bass.
We therefore recommend selling only if the pair breaks its trendline, targeting 1.0480 medium term and as our ultimate goal to 1.0280 dollars per Australian.
The breakpoint will be above the maximum monthly.
The MCD indicator shows overbought levels and depletion of upward force.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 20, 2012
General situation:
Despite the quite successful start, on February 20 the USD/CHF pair has lost positions gained and moved down to the lower border of Ichimoku Cloud, forming the “dead cross”. The current signal for BUY-deals is confirmed but weak as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price has failed to overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the first support level 0.9099 is considered as target for downside movement. Nevertheless, as long as the Ichimoku Cloud has not been overcome, it is recommended to refrain from entering the market. In case this level has been overcome, the second support level 0.8998, which is considered as new target for descending movement, will be available. The downward movement continues as long as the price is located below the Kijun-Sen (0.9215). While bearish trading it is recommended to set Stop Loss higher than Kijun-Sen. In case the price goes higher than this line, the signal for SELL-deals will weaken. Therefore, the further descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span remains lower than the price chart confirming the current signal for SELL-deals and indicating the bearish mood of the USD/CHF pair. Bollinger Bands shows the beginning of downside trend, lines are expanding and directed downwards. Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current descending movement and enabling short positions. Nevertheless, it is recommended to enter the market only when the signal for BUY-deals has been strengthened.
Trading recommendations:
As to CHF operations it is recommended to consider SELL-deals with first target seen at the 0.9099 level but only after the breakdown of the Ichimoku Cloud. When this level has been overcome, the next target for short positions will be seen at the 0.8998 level. Stop Loss is to be placed higher than 0.9215. In case this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. While opening the short positions MACD must indicate descending movement. With profit of 50-60 pips Stop Loss can be placed to zero area. Take Profit can be set higher than target levels.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 21, 2012
The five waves of AUD/USD from 1.0145 to 1.0844 now constitute one wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Now we have corrective wave B that is developing from 1.0844 against the uptrend. Within this wave there are A, B and potential C waves (colored royal blue in the chart), with subwave C still developing. And within the latter there are also A, B and C subwaves (colored yellow in the chart).
The targets of the downmove are Fibnoacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815, 1.0815-1.0745-1.0795.
Supports:
- 1.0683-82 = confluence area expanded objective point (XOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0614 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0815 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-45 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities of going short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 21, 2012
GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have 1, 2, 3, and potential 4th subwave that is developing from 126.77 (colored red in the chart).
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55, 122.55-126.77-125.72.
Resistances:
- 127.23-31-41 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP), objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 128.33 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77.
Supports:
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.19 = .50 ret
- 123.59 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 22, 2012
AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). The wave is moving from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter - they are A, B, and C (colored orange red in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 1.0749.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0815-1.0679-1.0749, 1.0749-1.0654-1.0699.
Supports:
- 1.0613 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0604-1.0599 = confluence area of two OP's
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0545 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0529 = XOP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0815 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-45 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities of going short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 22, 2012
GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have 1, 2, 3, and potential 4th subwave that is developing from 126.77 (colored red in the chart).
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55, 122.55-126.77-125.59.
Resistances:
- 127.23-31-41 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP), objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 128.20 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77.
Supports:
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.19 = .50 ret
- 123.59 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis For February 22, 2012
No significant changes are taking place on Wednesday the European session, the currency market.
Except for the euro, which is still without a clear trend, the dollar is taking some strength against other currencies leaders, and stand out in this context its growth against the yen, which fell from 80 units in the last hour minimum value since mid- July.
Of course, the weak yen leads to lose ground against the euro too, which is still slightly firmer against the dollar and pound sterling to a lesser extent, as the low, who has been the same since the beginning of European session.
It is also remarkable the strength that has an ounce of gold, and oil, not yet filled a gap left in the Asian session on Monday, so it does not provide for $ 105.00, but no one is stronger.
At this point there is a growing concern in Europe. It is known dependence of the old continent with imports of oil which do not produce, and recently suspended as a measure of pressure, its commercial ties with Iran.
It is naive to believe that Europe will run out of oil, just because Iran did not send it, and that Iran will stop selling oil. These maneuvers are always speculative, and ultimately seek to increase the price of oil is too old.
For Europe to get the same oil from Iran, just enough that it will sell the crude to a country outside Europe and that Europe will not buy another country, other costs of course. If that was the concern should not be.
Gold also strengthens in these times, and positions with the upward trend in short-term charts, and search the area at $ 1,800. It is known that one ounce not long to go 20 or $ 30, and any shocking news could have that effect these days, something tumultuous markets.
No major reports to be published, the most relevant and was released in Europe, and certainly has not been encouraging, with European exchanges operate down to another day and the Dow Jones index futures to move away, down from the heights Monday, the rest of the day presented with good business opportunities in the short term charts.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.3320 February 22, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)
EUR/USD
The Euro - U.S. Dollar pair, remains without a definite trend, and forming a figure reversal technique, if we see in the picture, the gap opening earlier this week, has not yet been covered. So, that adds strength to our bearish outlook. According to the table pivots, the euro - dollar, is trading below the first resitencia weekly, so we think we could go back at least to 1.3130 or more down to 1.3050.
Therefore, we recommend selling at current price levels, and with a stop loss, a little above the monthly maximum around 1.3320, and our ultimate goal in this bearish strategy, we will place on the 61.8% retracement of fibinacci.
MCD indicator. is in a neutral point showing bearish signals.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 22, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair, continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity. We can not discard the possible pullback, which can take place, as almost always happens when a pair breaks its trendline.
Therefore, we can enter selling, only if the pair closes below 1.0610 or we can wait for the pullback expected to happen, and sell the bearish sequence.
The Range Indicator shows overbought signals.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com