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EUR/USD: Review and forecast Current trend On Wednesday, the price of the currency pair EUR/USD has grown considerably. The Unified European currency was supported by positive inflation data in Eurozone. In April this index rose to the level of 0.7% versus 0.5% in March. Although the target level of 2% is still far away, investors hope that deflation is no longer a threat for Eurozone. Additional pressure on the American currency was caused by preliminary data on the US GDP. In Q1 this index rose only by 0.1% against expected 1.2%. Amid this news EUR/USD managed to soar up to the highs of April at the level of 1.3886. Market participants will wait for the data on business activity index in the US manufacturing sector today. Experts expect that the index will go up to the level of 54.3 points. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.3864, 1.3835, 1.3795 and 1.3770. Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.3945 and 1.4000. On the four-hour chart technical indicators show continuation of the upward movement. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD histogram is above the zero line and its volumes are increasing, giving a buy signal. Trading tips If current trend maintains, it is recommended to open buy positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3900 with the targets of 1.3945 and 1.4000.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/CAD: general analysis Current trend US Fed decision to reduce QE program by 10 billion USD has supported the American currency. According to experts, American economy is gradually recovering; improvements in employment sector and retail sales are obvious. However, interest rate will probably be kept at the low level for a long time, which will provide support to national economy and help achieve pre-crisis level of economic growth. Today, weekly report on number of applications for unemployment benefits will become known. It is expected that the number will increase up to 317 thousand. If the forecast prove to be correct, the USD will continue to strengthen. Attention shall be also focused on the index of personal spending and expenses on construction in the USA. Support and resistance On the daily chart important resistance level is still 4/8 Murray level, which coincides with the level of 1.0986. If this level is broken down, the price can go up to the level of 1.1046, which coincides with Murray level of 6/8. The nearest resistance level is 1.0986 - 4/8 Murray level. Support level: 1.0924 – 3/8 Murray level. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.0986 with protective order of1.0950 and a target of 1.1047.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: Investors are waiting for data on NFPR Current trend On Thursday the pair GBP/USD was volatile although some of the markets were closed because of the Labour Day. Purchasing managers PMI in the manufacturing sector of the UK was above the forecast, which promoted the rise in the pair above the level of 1.6900. However, in the afternoon the Pound fell to the level of 1.6880. Later the pair tried to break down the level of 1.6900, but failed. Today, PMI in the construction sector of Great Britain became known. The data has slightly weakened the pair, but pressure on the Pound has not been strong. Investors are waiting for the data on number of jobs outside agricultural sector in the USA. Experts’ forecast is positive, and if it proves to be true, the pair will weaken for a short time, which will provide a good chance for opening long positions. Support and resistance The nearest and the most important resistance level is 1.6900 – psychologically important level, break down of this level will allow the Pound to rise to h\the higher levels. Support levels: 1.6880, 1.6870, 1.6860 and 1.6820. Trading tips Long positions can be opened after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.6900. Limited buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.6840.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
NZD/USD: Investors are in anticipation of the news from American labour market Current trend On Thursday quotes of the currency pair NZD/USD grew up. After the release of the weak data on number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA, the pair reached two-week highs at the level of 0.8640. The state of American labour market causes misgivings among investors. Number of claims for unemployment benefits has increased in April, putting additional pressure on the American currency. The latest data showed that number of unemployed increased by 344 thousand, which is the highest level since February. Today’s key news is the US data on number of new jobs outside agricultural sector in April and unemployment rate. Experts expect that the news will be favourable for the USD; number of new jobs will increase by 210 thousand, unemployment rate is expected to fall to the level of 6.6%. Support and resistance Currently, the pair continues to test two-week highs at the level of 0.8640, but cannot consolidate above this level. If American labour market data will be equal to investors’ expectations, the price may experience correction to the level of 0.8590 (moving average of Bollinger bands). In case the data is negative, the price can go up to the levels of 0.8675 and 0.8695. Technical indicators confirm possibility of the upward movement. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are crossing and ready to turn up. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place long positions if the price consolidates above the level of 0.8640. Take profit is recommended at the level of 0.8695.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: general analysis Current trend On the daily chart the pair USD/JPY is trading at resistance level of 3/8 Murray, which coincides with the level of 102.34. Following the release of the positive data on US unemployment rate, which amounted to 6.3%, the USD got a chance to continue to strengthen against the Yen. Note that difference in the monetary policies of the USA and Japan can be beneficial for the USD. If the USA has chosen the policy of reduction of the quantitative easing program, Japan, on the contrary, increases quantitative easing programs, aiming to overcome deflation and lowering exchange rate of the national currency. The Bank of Japan has been successful in achieving the latter of the tasks: the Yen has lost 865 points since September last year. Weakening in the Yen has a positive effect on economy, increasing competiveness of Japanese products. For example, recent report of Canon showed that net profit in the Company has grown by 16% or 47.6 billion yen although sales of company’s product has declined in 2014. If monetary authorities continue existing policy, the USD will continue to strengthen against the Yen but in a slower rate than in 2013. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level: 102.34 – Murray level of 3/8. Support level is 101.56 – Murray level of 2/8. Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 102.34 with stop-loss at 101.80 and a target of 103.91.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: review and forecast Current trend The British currency was volatile at the trading session last Friday. The pair had tested support level of 1.6822, but the “bulls” did not let the price to go down any further. The key event of this week will be the decision by the Bank of England on interest rate and volume of asset purchase program. Experts believe that no serious decisions will be made; however, taking into account the latest statement of Mark Carney about general recovery of the British economy, it can be assumed that comments to the meeting will be positive. These comments can add positive momentum to the pair, boosting the price up to the level of 1.7000. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels: 1.6880 and 1.6920 (highs of May,1), 1.7000 (psychologically important level). Support levels: 1.6822 (Friday’s highs, Fibonacci line of 23.6%), 1.6755 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%), 1.6700 (Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%), (moving average with the period of 50 days), 1.6580 (moving average with the period of 100 days, Fibonacci retracement of 76.4%). Trading tips Long positions are recommended after consolidation of the pair above the level of 1.6880. Limited buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.6822.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: target level is 1.4030 Current trend On Monday, European currency traded in the narrow channel against the USD. Due to lack of important news from Europe and the USA investors decided to wait and see, which proved to be the right decision. The pair started to go up prior to the release of business activity index in Eurozone, but when it became known that the index exceeded expectations, the pair EUR/USD sharply soared up. The rise in retail sales of Eurozone in March also added momentum to the pair. Currently, the pair is trading at the level of 1.3930, and high investors’ demand can trigger the rise in the pair up to the key resistance level of 1.3950. Today, US trade balance will become known, as well as a speech of Jeremy Stain, a member of the Open Market Committee. Support and resistance Despite the fact that European currency is significantly overbought, the pair continues to go up. Increasing demand for Euro is likely to draw the pair up to the key resistance level and recent local highs at 1.3950, after which slight correction may take place, as well as a new attempt to break out resistance level. The pair continues to move in the upward channel with the target level of 1.4030. Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3790, 1.3710, 1.3630 and 1.3550. Resistance levels: 1.3950, 1.4000 and 1.4030. Trading tips In the current situation it is recommended to trade in accordance with the trend. It makes sense to place long positions and pending long positions with take profit at the level of 1.4030.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. The pair has slowed down its fall and is trading below the resistance level of 0.8750. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. One of the previous minimums of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8725.
USD/CHF, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.8785). One of the previous minimums of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8600.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8725, 0.8600. Resistance levels: 0.8750, 0.8785. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the pair has slowed down its fall, however, on the daily chart Bearish trend is still strong. Targets for the short positions are 0.8725 and 0.8600. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: new highs or long correction? Current trend The pair GBP/USD is still growing. On Tuesday Pound was supported by positive stats on Services PMI of Eurozone. The demand of British currency has increased and the pair has reached strong resistance level at 1.7000. Today we can witness small correction, while economic calendar lacks important releases. Investors are waiting for the Janet Yellen’s speech which will probably determine future policy of the US regulator. Support and resistance The pair is still trading within an ascending channel. If the Head of FRS doesn’t launch any anti-crisis measures, the pair will be corrected by 50-100 point and rise again. Otherwise, strong resistance will stop the Bulls and the price will go down to the lower border of the channel (1.6800). Support levels: 1.6950, 1.6900, 1.6860, 1.6840, 1.6800, 1.6770. Resistance levels: 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7050, 1.7100. Trading tips Pending buy orders can be placed at 1.6900 and 1.6800 with targets within a range of 1.7000-1.7030.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After small correction the pair overcomes Tenkan-sen line, which is a support level now (1.3921). If four-hour candle closes above this level, new wave of the upward movement will be confirmed. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.3952.
EUR/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also above Kijun-sen, however, the correction has never reached the red line, which is still a support level (1.3864). Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.4163.
Key levels Support levels: 1.3921, 1.3864. Resistance levels: 1.3952, 1.4163. Trading tips Both charts indicate the development of the Bullish trend. Targets for the long positions are 1.3952 and 1.4163. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited