Eur/usd - page 361
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Yesterday the EURUSD rallied with a wide range and closed in the green near the high of the day, suggesting a stronger pullback to a Fibonacci extension at 1.07032.
Yesterday the pair closed above the 10-day moving average that was pushing the currency down acting as a strong resistance. The question is: if the pair can follow thru with the bullish momentum or go back down below the 10-day moving average.
The key levels to watch are the 1.0819 (resistance), a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.0615 (support), 1.0622 (Support), and 1.0462 (support).
Looks like it's trying to break above the resistance.
EUR/USD: Euro Declines on Euro Zone Inflation Data
The shared European currency dropped to a session low on Wednesday after the latest CPI figures from the euro zone came in below the expectations, sending the euro below the $1.06 handle.
The euro was trading in consolidation mode on Wednesday, following a strong rally in the previous session on the back of solid data from across the euro zone. Manufacturing data came in better than expected while German unemployment hit a record low of 6.3%.
After the inflation data the EUR/USD moved south, trading 0.37% lower at $1.05093. The euro reached its cyclical peak during the overnight session at $1.0635 and since then weakened to session lows below the $1.06 handle.
The preliminary November CPI numbers showed no sign of improvements, with core inflation dropping to 0.9%. Moreover the PPI declined 0.3% on a monthly basis while annually the index fell 3.2%.
Michael Hewson from CMC Markets warned that a further uptick in the latest EU inflation numbers might shift the odds of a big bang extension to the European Central bank's (ECB) easing program on Tuesday.
EUR/USD: Dollar Drifts Higher on Strong ADP Employment The ADP employment report showed a 217,000 job gain in November, up from 182,000 in October.
The greenback jumped after the results as it paved the way for strong payrolls report on Friday. The EUR/USD pair was seen near daily lows, trading around $1.05900 and deepening daily losses.
Shortly after the data, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen is expected to hold a speech, which might induce further volatility.
Moreover, the non-manufacturing ISM is due on Thursday, while the manufacturing ISM released on Tuesday dropped notably from 50.1 to 48.6 and ended up in contraction territory. The odds for a December rate hike declined from 75% to 70% after the disappointing result.
From the euro point of view, inflation measured by the CPI in the euro zone stayed at 0.1%, while analysts had expected it to increase to 0.2%. The core gauge disappointed as well, when it decreased from 1.1% to 0.9%.
EUR/USD is back to yesterday's opening price. I will go short but after the break of yesterday's low price 1.05550.
EUR/USD is back to yesterday's opening price. I will go short but after the break of yesterday's low price 1.05550.
I agree with you in this point, thank you.
4 Reasons To Stay Bearish EUR/USD Into ECB Meeting - Credit Suisse
With the ECB’s much-anticipated 3 December meeting is finally upon us, Credit Suisse European economists expect a 10bp cut to the deposit rate and a sixmonth extension of the bank’s QE program – but see risks around their call squarely towards an even more dovish outcome.
"Indeed, the wave of dovish ECB-speak has allowed market expectations to run wild in recent weeks, suggesting our base case call would likely disappoint the market," CS adds.
So why does CS maintain its bearish EURUSD view heading into tomorrow’s ECB meeting?
CS outlines a number of factors that suggest EUR/USD downside will continue towards its forecast profile (1.04 in 3m, 1.00 in 12m).
1. EUR positioning is cleaner than it was ahead of the January ECB meeting: "CFTC’s measure of investor positioning in FX futures shows that EUR positioning is currently less net short than it was heading into the 22 January ECB meeting (Exhibits 2-3). EUR positioning is currently in the 32nd percentile of weekly readings going back to 2010, compared to the 13th percentile back on 20 January, ahead of the ECB meeting," CS argues.
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On Monday session the single currency recorded unsicnificant decline after a relatively volatile session. The pair was trading between 1.0635 and 1.0551, and and the end euro lost 20 pips to a closing price of 1.0612. Currently the sentiment is neutral, the pair formed range of 1.0640 - 1.0560.
In my opinion, the next level will be 1,0525.
Yesterday the EURUSD initially fell but found enough support to turn around and close near the open of the day although closed within previous day range, suggesting a mildly bullish to a ranging tone.
Yesterday the pair failed to close above the 10-day moving average showing that the currency did not have the strength to continue its bullish momentum.
Today is the Big day with the ECB interest rate decision and monetary policy statement plus on the table is a potential increase or further extend of its dovish monetary policy.
Also today we will have Fed's Yellen testimonials before the Congress or some of its Committees to explain the current economic situation and the policies applied to improve it.
The key levels to watch are the 1.0819 (resistance), a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.0605 (resistance), 1.0622 (Support), and 1.0462 (support).