Eur/usd - page 342
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EUR/USD lost the bullish trend on the 4 hours chart an engulfing pattern and a sudden drop to below the support of 1.1400.
EUR/USD lost the bullish trend on the 4 hours chart an engulfing pattern and a sudden drop to below the support of 1.1400.
I don't think it lost the bullish trend yet. We have to wait a bit, but today it is normal ranging within expected volatility
I don't think it lost the bullish trend yet. We have to wait a bit, but today it is normal ranging within expected volatility
Again a dead cat bouncing game played by the market makers
EUR/USD: Euro Bumped From 6-Wk High, Elbowed by Nowotny & US Inflation Data
The euro currency declined against the buck on Thursday, pushing the EUR/USD pair lower from its fresh six-week high at $1.1495, as investors assessed the impact of the European Central Bank (ECB) official Ewald Nowotny and US inflation figures coming in marginally above forecast in September.
"The inflation picture looks less grim. That gave some stability to the dollar," Deutsche Bank currency strategist Sebastien Galy mentioned.
Nevertheless, the pair stayed in the ascending medium-trend that started two weeks ago, but the euro once again had difficulty heading to the major resistance of $1.15. Looking back, every single bullish attempt in 2015 basically finished either below or right after crossing this strong barrier.
In the afternoon, the EUR/USD decreased 0.75% to $1.1387, while the US dollar rebounded 0.47%, rising from its six-week bottom at 93.83 points.
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EURO: Is 1.15 The Top?
EUR/USD raced to a high of 1.1493 Thursday, just a few pips shy of 1.15 before falling sharply to end the North American trading session below 1.14. While Europe is plagued by its own troubles the euro performed well on short covering and a lack of desire to own U.S. dollars. However Europe's problems is finally catching up to the currency with policymakers talking about the need for more stimulus. Everyone in the region is worried about low inflation and weak growth but ECB member Nowotny is one of the few policymakers to step up and say that with inflation targets clearly being missed, "its quite obvious that additional sets of instruments are necessary." His words are resonating amongst the investment community because we are a week away from the next ECB meeting. There is not enough support within the central bank for stimulus to be increased but if a change were to be made it would be to extend the end date for QE beyond September 2016. Friday's's Eurozone CPI and trade balance reports will confirm that something needs to be done about the low inflation environment and if the ECB eases, EUR/USD will crash. However our bearish outlook for the euro is not the only reason why we believe 1.15 is a top.
After falling to a low of 118.05, the U.S. dollar rebounded strongly against the Japanese yen to end the day virtually unchanged. Investors were bracing for another round of weak U.S. data and when the jobless claims and CPI report came in better than expected, there was a wave of relief in the FX market. While the dollar was beaten down after the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came out it recovered strongly following the European close. Economists were looking for CPI growth to turn negative and while prices fell -0.2% in September on an annualized basis, CPI stagnated. Excluding food and energy prices actually rose 0.2% last month. More importantly, jobless claims dropped to its lowest level in 4 decades. The hope that this decline in layoffs will translate into stronger payroll growth and spending overshadowed the weakness in manufacturing activity in the NY and Philadelphia region. The dollar's price action tells us that investors do not want to give up on the long dollar trade. Industrial production and the University of Michigan sentiment index are scheduled for release Friday.
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The euro recorded a decrease against the dollar on Thursday. Thus, the single currency lost the accumulated profits from the previous session. If negative direction continue we may expect soon break of support at 1.1171.The session on Thursday started at 1.1472 and the bullish trend prevailed from the start. Bottom of the day was hit at 1.1363, and the session ended at 1.1382.
Re: Eur/usd news The euro recorded a decrease against the dollar on Thursday. Thus, the single currency lost the accumulated profits from the previous session. If negative direction continue we may expect soon break of support at 1.1171.The session on Thursday started at 1.1472 and the bullish trend prevailed from the start. Bottom of the day was hit at 1.1363, and the session ended at 1.1382.
It went lower - but only in the day end
Monday should be interesting
ECB Preview: ECB Set to Extend QE or Face Harsh Reality With the inflation rate below target, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) postponing its decision to raise rates, and the foreign exchange rate of the euro appreciating recently, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council is set to extend its asset purchasing program when convening on the Mediterranean island of Malta in the coming week.
While the inflation rate and decisions from other central banks are rather out of the scope of the ECB's monetary toolkit, the currency exchange rate is more of an attainable goal. In an environment of uncertainty, using verbal intervention or talking down the euro has become an effective short-term strategy of late, especially given the euro's recent appreciation that has brought its exchange rate to a level just about 1.5% lower compared to where it was on the day of the initial asset purchasing program launch on January 22 this year.
The inflation rate in the euro area dropped back to deflationary territory in September as prices of crude oil fell to fresh lows while even core inflation, a measure that excludes often volatile food and energy price items, has dwelled at or below 1% ever since September 2013.
The five year to five year swap rate, or the 'Draghinometer' ever since ECB President Mario Draghi began to focus heavily on it, is currently at just about the same level it stood back in January this year, or at the time of the QE announcement.
"Although the market prices inflation being well below target for a long, long, time, it also prices nominal and real policy rates beginning to rise," analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch claimed in recent note, pointing out that the five-year real swap rates achieved a post-QE low of -1% in the euro area and that this is a somewhat higher level compared to the real rates seen post-QE in the US and UK.
Deflation is a rare phenomenon in the euro zone, which was last seen at the height of the financial crisis between June and October of 2009. So the deflationary soft spot starting last December and lasting till March, and the current September dip into the red, are the only periods of deflation in the 16-year history of the common European currency.
National Bank of Austria Governor Ewald Nowotny stated recently that inflation remains well below the ECB's target and that additional sets of instruments were needed. While speaking at the 12th Annual OeNB Conference on European Economic Integration/5th Annual National Bank of Poland Conference in Warsaw, Nowotny said that "it's quite obvious that additional sets of instruments are necessary."
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Long to short ratios before the official market open :
Long to short ratios before the official market open :
mladen
Where is the chart from?