Eur/usd - page 277
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EUR/USD: Dollar Erases Losses as Market Prepares for NFP
The US currency recovered versus the euro on Thursday, after the latest labor market report showed a lower number of Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week.
The greenback is currently traded up 0.05% at $1.1263 against the euro, after having a volatile session hovering between $1.1252 and $1.1380.
Initial jobless claims in the US fell to a seasonally adjusted 276,000 in the week ended May 30, the Department of Labor said in a weekly update on Thursday.
As for claimants who already receive government support, so-called continuing claims, the figure for the week ending May 16 came in at 2.196 million, compared to last week's revised reading of 2.226 million.
The imprint added to the last US session which offered plenty of positive data. The number of Americans employed in the US private sector increased by 201,000 in the fifth month of the year, compared to the downwardly revised 165,000 booked in April.
Moreover, the nominal shortfall shrank 19.2% to $40.9 billion, a lot smaller than the $44 billion the markets had been expecting, and following a downwardly revised $50.6 billion gap in March.
The major deal breaker comes on Friday, when the non-farm payrolls should reveal 227,000 new jobs added to the US economy after 223,000 a month ago and shed more light into when the Fed will start raising rates.
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We Shall Not Pay IMF Today: Greece
Athens has decided to delay a €300 million debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due on Friday although Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled on Wednesday after his meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem that the payment might be made.
"The Greek authorities have informed the Fund today that they plan to bundle the country's four June payments into one, which is now due on June 30," IMF's chief spokesman Gerry Rice said in a statement on Thursday.
Tsipras has been facing angry members of the leftist wing of his SYRIZA party who are demanding changes to the terms and conditions from Greece's international creditors -- the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- in order to unlock €7.2 billion in frozen funds from the existing bailout program.
Deputy social security minister Dimitris Stratoulis said that the creditors pushed Greece into accepting “a disgraceful and dishonourable agreement,” while Alexis Mitropoulos, a deputy parliamentary speaker, told Greek Mega TV that EC president Jean-Claude Juncker had presented the “most vulgar, most murderous, toughest plan".
Juncker "took on the dirty work and conveyed the most vulgar, most murderous, toughest plan when everyone hoped that the deal was closing," he said. "And that at a time when we were finally moving towards an agreement we all want because we rule out a rift leading to tragedy."
Prime minister Tsipras will address the Greek parliament and brief legislators on negotiations on Friday afternoon.
EUR/USD almost unchanged, eyes on U.S. data
The euro was almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after the release of upbeat German factory orders data as sentiment on the greenback improved ahead of the day's highly anticipated report on U.S. employment.
EUR/USD hit 1.1248 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.1231.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.1078, the low of June 3 and resistance at 1.1327, the high of May 19.
Official data earlier showed that German factory orders increased by 1.4% in April, beating expectations for a 0.5% gain. The change in factory orders for March was revised to a 1.1% rise from a previously estimated 0.9% uptick.
Meanwhile, concerns over Greece slightly eased after the country deferred a series of debt payments it owes to the International Monetary Fund until the end of the month.
The decision came as talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels on Thursday ended without an agreement to unlock more financial aid before the country runs out of money.
Investors were eyeing data on U.S. nonfarm payrolls due later in the day for further indications on the strength of the job market.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 30 declined by 8,000 to 276,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 284,000. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to fall by 5,000 to 279,000 last week.
The report came a day after data showed that the U.S. private sector added 201,000 jobs last month, slightly ahead of expectations for 200,000.
The euro was little changed against the pound, with EUR/GBP at 0.7316.
EUR/USD tried to rise higher yesterday, topped at 1.1379 but then collapsed down and closed lower at 1.1237. The outlook is bearish in nearest term testing 1.1180 - 1.1150. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1285. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral trade area testing 1.1350 / 80. As seen on the hourly chart, price slipped below the bullish price channel, suggesting a possible bearish signals.
EURUSD initially rallied on yesterday session but found enough selling pressure near the 1.1391 resistance to give all its gains back and close in the red at the low of the day. It was a typically profit taking day ahead of the high impact fundamental data. Greece already took the IMF offer to delay its 300mln payment and later today we have the US non-farm payrolls.
EUR/USD is testing 1.1120 at the moment a break under the support will push the price further down. but in both ways It's weekend and the close of today will determine what to open in Monday.
EUR/USD is testing 1.1120 at the moment a break under the support will push the price further down. but in both ways It's weekend and the close of today will determine what to open in Monday.
Next week will be even more all about Greece
There is a war out there - a currency war
EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 8, 2015
The EUR/USD pair initially rallied during the course of the week, but then pullback in order to form a massive shooting star like candle. However, we broke the top of the hammer from the previous week, and did stay above there. Because of that we feel that there is bullish pressure underneath, and that this market will continue to go higher. We have no interest in selling from a longer-term perspective, but recognize that short-term buyers will probably continue to come back into this market again and again. If we can get above the 1.15 level, we are long-term buyers.
EU Preview: Time is Is Running Out for Everyone, Not Only for Greece
While the week ahead is going to be relatively light of macroeconomic data, market watchers are getting ready for more nail-biting days, as Athens and its creditors try find a compromise to clinch a deal that will prevent Greece from defaulting on its massive pile of debts. The G7 leaders summit in Germany will focus on the global economy and very likely Greece as well.
EU Preview: Time is Is Running Out for Everyone, Not Only for Greece
With another week wrapped up without a deal between Greece and its lenders and without any clear way ahead, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras decided to address parliamentarians in Athens, and all of Europe, indeed.
Tsipras told MPs that he is determined to reach a solution for "a new epoch for the European Union." His government has proved its "commitment to the European ideal" and presented a comprehensive proposals to lenders. However, "Greece needs a solution, not just an agreement, otherwise it will never exit the long crisis," the Prime Minister claimed. "Time is not only running out for us, it is running out for everyone."
Given the tone and content of the speech, the Greek government remains defiant. It is not caving, even as time continues to run short, it will not accept the"absurd" demands from creditors'.
"The proposals submitted by lenders are unrealistic...the Greek government cannot consent to absurd proposals," Tsipras said.
And, somehow, despite this firm stance, Alexis Tsipras insists that a deal is imminent. He wants Greece to remain in the euro zone.
Someone will have to compromise.
G7 leaders, including the US President, are meeting in Germany on Sunday and Monday. It is highly probable that President Obama will push European leaders to sort out the Greek crisis. The US has been very anxious about the escalating crisis.
Therefore, the talks will likely resume as early as Tuesday.
Program for Greece of "hope not despair"
While creditors have been pushing Greece into accepting their plan, some of the world's most prominent economists called on Greece's international creditors to strike a new deal with the debt-ridden country. They urged them to forget the old program that has demonstrably failed, in a letter published in the Financial Times on Friday.
"It is wrong to ask Greece to commit itself to an old program that has demonstrably failed, been rejected by Greek voters, and which large numbers of economists believe was misguided from the start," they wrote in the letter, suggesting a positive approach to solving Greece's debt problems.
"Consider, on the other hand, a rapid move to a positive program for recovery in Greece (and in the EU as a whole), using the massive financial strength of the Eurozone to promote investment, rescuing young Europeans from mass unemployment with measures that would increase employment today and growth in the future. This could both transform the economic performance of the EU and make it once more a source of pride for European citizens."
They end the letter by calling on Greece's lenders to commit to a new deal: "How Greece is treated will send a message to all its euro zone partners. Like the Marshall plan, let it be one of hope not despair."
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I think based on the Greece crisis we might see another drop.