Eur/usd - page 112
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EURUSD is in a choppy daily consolidation respecting the support of 1.3511. Can EURUSD break this support and continue downward to 1.3470?
Bundesbank says German growth to be stronger in Q3 than Q2 2014
Details of the Bundesbank monthly report 16 June 2014
thanks for the analysis
ECB Likely to Refrain From New Measures for Next Months
The European Central Bank is likely to refrain from any new stimulus package in coming months as it reviews lenders’ balance sheets, according to two euro-area central-bank officials familiar with current policy discussions.
The effect of any ECB measures could be blunted by the reluctance of banks to increase lending during the assessment, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations aren’t public. The health check is scheduled to end in October. An ECB spokesman said that the Governing Council discusses its policy stance every month.
ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled an historic package of policy measures this month, including a negative deposit rate and targeted long-term loans to banks, to fight the threat of deflation in the 18-nation currency bloc. He also said officials aren’t necessarily finished and may come up with additional stimulus if needed.
Policy makers could act again before the end of the bank review should a shock to the economy cause the inflation outlook to worsen, one of the central-bank officials said. The 24-member Governing Council doesn’t expect such a scenario, though asset purchases would be an option to address it, the person said.
The ECB spokesman declined to comment further on any potential stimulus measures.
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Eurozone Inflation Eases As Estimated In May
Sweden's Unemployment Rate Lowest Since 2008
Sweden's unemployment rate declined to the lowest since November 2008, data from the Swedish Public Employment Service/AMV showed Tuesday.
The jobless rate fell to 3.9 percent in May, in line with forecast, from 4.1 percent in April. This was the lowest since November 2008 when it was 3.7 percent.
More than 363,000 were registered as unemployed in May, down 20,000 from a year ago. The youth unemployment rate was 13.7 percent of labor force, which was down by 1.8 percentage points since last May.
Elsewhere today, real estate website Maklarstatistik announced that house prices in Sweden rose 2 percent in May.
Eurusd
EURUSD is ranging from 1.35 to 1.36 and waiting for the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference tomorrow at 18:30 GMT, so until them no one is risking a direction.
i agree its hard to risk a direction now specially with the slow movement on the price this days waiting for a break above resistance 1.36 or below support 1.35 will decide the main trend
is EURUSD trading bid in an offered market?
See my Daily Forex Trading Outlook and key levels to watch
Forex Trading Outlook for June 17, 2014 - YouTube
German two-year bond yields near zero as ECB injects cash
German two-year bond yields traded near one-year lows on Tuesday, as the European Central Bank released tens of billions of euros into the euro zone banking sector, anchoring short-term interest rates around zero.
For the first time the ECB did not hold a weekly deposit tender to neutralise the effect of the bond purchases it made at the height of the crisis, effectively injecting back into the market the 108 billion it drained last week.
That was partly offset by banks taking less in one-week loans than last Tuesday at the ECB's regular offering of unlimited cash - 98 billion euros compared with 137 billion - but still represented a significant cash injection.
German two-year bond yields edged 2 basis points higher on the day to 0.047 percent, but were still close to the 0.027 percent hit on Monday, which was the lowest since the end of May 2013.
Shorter-dated bonds outperformed in a broader sell-off on Tuesday, which traders said was driven by fears the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected after consumer prices made their largest jump in more than a year.
NEGATIVE TERRITORY
Some analysts said that the ECB's liquidity injection could push two-year yields into negative territory, adding however that it would be only a temporary phenomenon as investors would eventually sell two-year bonds for longer-dated debt or paper from other issuers to get a positive return.
"The boost to excess liquidity in the system will compress rates but we are not really looking for significant negative yields," said Anton Heese, co-head of European interest rates strategy at Morgan Stanley.
"In the past when you have seen negative yields, it has been driven more by a safe haven bid rather than excess liquidity."
Germany and the Netherlands sold treasury bills at a negative yield on Monday, the direct result of the ECB cutting the rate it offers banks to keep their money in overnight deposits to minus 10 basis points.
The ECB's move is effectively penalising banks for not putting money to work. Negative T-bill yields mean governments will pay investors back less than they borrowed when the paper comes due.
Policymakers hope negative rates in time will force money out of the financial system and into the real economy. But some analysts remain pessimistic.
"If you don't want to lend money to businesses because you don't trust the economic viability of companies, you will not do it, no matter what incentives you get from the central bank," said Marius Daheim, chief strategist at Bayerische Landesbank.
"The credit channel is blocked ... People don't trust the economy because growth is feeble, inflation is low, household debt is pretty high and unemployment is high as well."
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