Let's now finally get serious about why price moves
Hello,
I've been on forex sites for almost four years now... downloaded thousands of indicators, hundreds of strategies, numerous EAs, countless interpretations as to what "price action" means, dozens of webinars, various articles from professionals as to how to trade from an indefinite number of websites, etc. etc. etc.
Guess what? I can't make money on forex... all the money I win, I end up losing and my net profit is ALWAYS $0. Risk to reward ratios are useless because the amount of times I lose still outweighs the few times won and again the net profit is $0 (10 losses, three wins - RTRR is 1:3.... I'm at -10). The indicators that everyone swears by: MAs, MACDs, Stochastics, RSI, indicators that end up repainting the past, CCI, etc. all go nowhere in the long run, no matter what combination you use of these and various others used with them. Combinations of indicators do not increase your chances... if the best indicator you have gives you a 20% chance of making profit, then your chances are 20% - regardless of how many other inferior indicators are joining in with the superior one.
As far as price action goes... I'm still not even fully clear as to what this phrase even means. If it's the patterns such as dojis, dark cloud covers, etc. then price action proves nothing as to what's getting ready to happen next. If I had a nickel for ever time an instructor on these websites stated, "You can rest assured the price won't go the opposite way or the same trending way when XYZ pattern happens" where I then look for this pattern on a chart and see their assurance disproven, that would be enough money for me to not even bother with playing the market. Price can do ANYTHING it wants... whenever it wants, wherever it wants. Case closed... it is not a game of random chance or mathematics, humanity is fully controlling what is going on which means they can do what they choose anywhere they choose to.
Please do not recommend that I read someone's book on how to win at the markets. If someone is bold enough to write such a book, then you can rest assured that the banks, market operators, governments, etc. are all reading that book also and now know when to whiplash us all and stop us out.
With all that said, I am looking for what would technically be similar to a holy grail but not in essence the holy grail per se... what causes price to go up and down in the first place. No why don't we, for starters, take a look at the main factors - the country's economy, what news reports came out, what the governments playing forex also are going to do, etc. Now I know you may consider what I'm asking for to be what's called fundamental analysis... but what I'm requesting here goes a little bit beyond that. This price index point just went up at this tick on the chart... why? It just went back down..... why? I see a trend going back this far on the chart, but then I see it ranging after the trend, even though there was another trend right before this trend... why? This other currency pair has been ranging for the last two weeks on the hourly chart... why?
Why ask why, you say? Because if we have an answer, then now we know what's going on and what is obviously going to happen next when we have all that data at our disposal.
Ok, I know what I'm going to be told now.... "That's ridiculous, you can't possibly analyze so much data. It's impossible!" Ok then, let me put it to you another way... why don't we just, throughout this thread (with permission from the moderators here if they find nothing objectionable to my first post), at least discuss WHAT THE FACTORS ALL ARE to begin with... ALL of them. What we can do afterwards is look for ways on how we can combine that data either through a website, an indicator, etc. so there isn't as much data to have to look at all at once. How's that? This idea is only for future posts, we're not concerned with doing that part yet.
We need to discuss not just new reports, but what TYPES of new reports are we looking for and for what currencies they directly affect. Obviously the Bank of England's report affects the British pound, but what about all other pertinent data involved? Does the European Union's reports do anything to the British pound as well as the euro? Do the Asian reports do anything not just to the Japanese yen, but also to the British pound since the GBP/JPY is a highly popular currency pair for its high volatility?
Why does the USD/CHF do the exact opposite of the EUR/USD 99% of the time? Does oil, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, etc. all have anything to do with currency pairs going up or down since the markets seem to all be interconnected (positive correlation with the EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, etc.)? Why do all these big time market big shots making millions every year have 7 or 8 computer screens in front of them - what data are they looking at and what do they conclude from it? Why don't they just level it down to only 3 or 4 computer screens where they have all the data combined through some form of software - or does it have to be arranged only they way they have it arranged?
Now I know volume spread analysis has been given credulity by a number of people - it has its supporters as well as detractors, the reasons being that one argues that there is no actual volume in forex due to there being no centralization. However the supporters argue that tick volume suffices and one can draw accurate predictions when supply/demand/accumulation/distribution is about to take place. Perhaps volume spread analysis may be a factor that we could consider, but if one suggests it should, we need to see everything involved from start to finish and that involves, once again, what causes the price to go up or down from the get go. VSA would thus compliment prediction... second only, however, to the aforementioned data needed regarding what just made the price index point move in the direction it did on any given bar or candle.
Hopefully this will give some insight as to what I'm visualizing... a completely different approach where we go to the very heart and soul of why markets move even so much as one point, in spite of however many variables are involved. Let's just discuss what all of them are... and I do mean all of them, not just a summary of the most relevant. The more data we have, the better the results - quite obviously. As far as I'm concerned, this becomes my "trading style" that I prefer above all others. The question is, what all do we need to know? Let this thread be a collection of everyone's knowledge as to what all has to be taken into consideration for even the slightest movement to occur on a market chart. We'll worry about what to do with all of it later.
Thank you much
PSTalking about the co-relation it is a fact that Any currency will have same set of movements in t he different pairs. So if USD is strong it will be acroos all the currencies so that their related values will be the same.
Yes and also oil, by the way. I forgot to mention that one....
So this is what I'm talking about - what can show us what those millionaire market-player guys and gals, whom all seem to have at least 8 or so monitors in front of them, are looking at every day? What are those charts, indicators, reports, etc.? Obviously they are trying to make a pattern out of something, but out of what exactly?
I'm through with playing around when it comes to these indicators, MACD strategies, price action patterns, etc. These don't work for prolonged periods of time - at least generalizing through my experience none of them do. If I'm losing as much money as I'm gaining, then guess what? The system's garbage. If the brokers know when to stop everyone out because this pattern occured on the charts that eveyone, whom are all trading price action alone, all "know to be a positive signal for buy/sell", then guess what? The system's now obsolete. If 3:1 RTRR is what you use and you lose 14 times a month and win 6 times as well, then yes you technically made 40 pips profit - FOR THE MONTH! A $400 account with adequate monthly money management, and you've made $4-8. Don't quit your day job!
So this what I would like, anyone's input on what all we have to look at, similar in concept to the millionaire traders who look at screens every day. Everything we can think of that makes a pip go up or down... it isn't just the American dollar alone, so I'll post as much data as I can think of that matches this goal.
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It is a fact by now, that members of US Senate & Congress made enormously profitable bets on the Market during their stay @ Government positions...increasing their Portfolios 10+ fold in a matter of a year or two. I can only imagine THEM watching "8" monitors @ a time with indicators that would put Mladen's indicators to shame...and during brakes from active trading, Govern us poor plebs...in every way they are Superior then we are...all of us combined...I feel safe that such people rule my and many others life...
Well sure, what does the government NOT know is the real question these days.
But I'm still not convinced that only the government has access to such and such regarding what I'm looking for. Like I was saying before, volume spread analysis seems to be a good start regarding what I'm trying to achieve... I just wouldn't rely entirely on it before I would ever rely on what just caused the market to go up 40 points in the last hour.
This link would be an OK start, we begin with fundamental analysis... but we need to dig MUCH deeper than just this:
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Well sure, what does the government NOT know is the real question these days.
But I'm still not convinced that only the government has access to such and such regarding what I'm looking for. Like I was saying before, volume spread analysis seems to be a good start regarding what I'm trying to achieve... I just wouldn't rely entirely on it before I would ever rely on what just caused the market to go up 40 points in the last hour.
This link would be an OK start, we begin with fundamental analysis... but we need to dig MUCH deeper than just this:
How To Trade Forex On News ReleasesOff the topic...whenever I hear "volume spread analysis" my inner voice says "spread them wide":)...and I try not to venture into that messy volume spread...not to mention "analysis"...
By the way, I forgot to mention one other thing when it comes to the Dow Jones and other such related markets...
As I was saying, the markets are interconnected. If you know how to use volume to trade a stock, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, etc. - and it has a positive or negative correlation with a currency pair, then use your volume analysis on that stock, and then it apply it to the currency pair afterwards since many people complain that volume can't be used on forex since no central market exists for it. Make sense?
Let's now add support and resistance to the mix:
First of all, what even are support and resistance lines? No, they’re not just horizontal or diagonal lines drawn because another high/low from the chart didn’t go any lower/higher. You’ve seen price blast through the line over and over again… so what’s the difference whether those lines are there?
Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets MAY repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. Another definition of this scenario is called supply and demand. But what are these levels? These are the take-profit/stop-loss levels. If everyone all at once has their take profit or their stop loss at XYZ level, then there’s no more money to be had past that level. Resistance shows where sellers will not sell at higher prices and buyers want to take profit. The opposite is true of support.
The only time there will be money past those levels is when new suckers (I mean, people) put all this new money into the market and don’t know what they’re doing because they don’t know how to trade (the moving averages just crossed, the MACD just went the opposite route, etc.) Market operators and professionals running the whole marketing outfit are ALWAYS on the lookout for this situation - if there is any money to be had on the market that they can swipe from you and me, rest assured they are already getting ready to make their move. They look for this opportunity every 5 seconds if not sooner.
What causes that to happen often times? That’s right… news reports. You’ll notice that when the reports come out and the move goes up or down, it usually will go exactly the opposite way not long afterwards to almost the exact level it started. This is the big shots taking all that cash added from the dopes dumping all this capital on the markets who believe that this and that will happen because the news was good/bad. Support and resistance lines are now more able to be broken since new money has been uploaded.
Volume also is used to know how strong a breakthrough for support/resistance might be. But, here we go again with the “volume and forex” controversy. Like I said, you can look at stock charts and use volume that way and then apply that chart’s data to whatever currency pairs have positive/negative correlation.
What I need to know for this part of my goal is, what are the factors that lead people to believe that 1.5010 (or whatever price) is where their take profits/stop losses should be? What can we look at to know WHY this is where these levels are? Brokers also sometimes go along with what the retail traders (you and me) will have that level at… but what makes that many people all at once decide that level ABC is where it all ends/begins? Do other currency pairs with the USD in them, for instance, also have similar supply/demand (support/resistance) levels?
...
It doesn't matter whether Market is manipulated or not...price will always go sideways, up or down...fast or slow...would be interesting to imagine yourself to be a Market Manipulator and predict future moves from that position of "power":)...for example: Almost every time MACD cross "0" line up...to force prices to spike down considerably:)
It doesn't matter whether Market is manipulated or not...price will always go sideways, up or down...fast or slow...would be interesting to imagine yourself to be a Market Manipulator and predict future moves from that position of "power":)...for example: Almost every time MACD cross "0" line up...to force prices to spike down considerably:)
Well yeah, when the market is sideways, then support and resistance is obvious to detect... but we need to know WHY it's been decided that the market goes that high and that low ONLY until the trend arrives. Some sideways markets have a very low "spread". Other have a much wider one... why is that?
...
Well yeah, when the market is sideways, then support and resistance is obvious to detect... but we need to know WHY it's been decided that the market goes that high and that low ONLY until the trend arrives. Some sideways markets have a very low "spread". Other have a much wider one... why is that?
I don't know:)...and I don't want to know:)
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Hello,
I've been on forex sites for almost four years now... downloaded thousands of indicators, hundreds of strategies, numerous EAs, countless interpretations as to what "price action" means, dozens of webinars, various articles from professionals as to how to trade from an indefinite number of websites, etc. etc. etc.
Guess what? I can't make money on forex... all the money I win, I end up losing and my net profit is ALWAYS $0. Risk to reward ratios are useless because the amount of times I lose still outweighs the few times won and again the net profit is $0 (10 losses, three wins - RTRR is 1:3.... I'm at -10). The indicators that everyone swears by: MAs, MACDs, Stochastics, RSI, indicators that end up repainting the past, CCI, etc. all go nowhere in the long run, no matter what combination you use of these and various others used with them. Combinations of indicators do not increase your chances... if the best indicator you have gives you a 20% chance of making profit, then your chances are 20% - regardless of how many other inferior indicators are joining in with the superior one.
As far as price action goes... I'm still not even fully clear as to what this phrase even means. If it's the patterns such as dojis, dark cloud covers, etc. then price action proves nothing as to what's getting ready to happen next. If I had a nickel for ever time an instructor on these websites stated, "You can rest assured the price won't go the opposite way or the same trending way when XYZ pattern happens" where I then look for this pattern on a chart and see their assurance disproven, that would be enough money for me to not even bother with playing the market. Price can do ANYTHING it wants... whenever it wants, wherever it wants. Case closed... it is not a game of random chance or mathematics, humanity is fully controlling what is going on which means they can do what they choose anywhere they choose to.
Please do not recommend that I read someone's book on how to win at the markets. If someone is bold enough to write such a book, then you can rest assured that the banks, market operators, governments, etc. are all reading that book also and now know when to whiplash us all and stop us out.
With all that said, I am looking for what would technically be similar to a holy grail but not in essence the holy grail per se... what causes price to go up and down in the first place. No why don't we, for starters, take a look at the main factors - the country's economy, what news reports came out, what the governments playing forex also are going to do, etc. Now I know you may consider what I'm asking for to be what's called fundamental analysis... but what I'm requesting here goes a little bit beyond that. This price index point just went up at this tick on the chart... why? It just went back down..... why? I see a trend going back this far on the chart, but then I see it ranging after the trend, even though there was another trend right before this trend... why? This other currency pair has been ranging for the last two weeks on the hourly chart... why?
Why ask why, you say? Because if we have an answer, then now we know what's going on and what is obviously going to happen next when we have all that data at our disposal.
Ok, I know what I'm going to be told now.... "That's ridiculous, you can't possibly analyze so much data. It's impossible!" Ok then, let me put it to you another way... why don't we just, throughout this thread (with permission from the moderators here if they find nothing objectionable to my first post), at least discuss WHAT THE FACTORS ALL ARE to begin with... ALL of them. What we can do afterwards is look for ways on how we can combine that data either through a website, an indicator, etc. so there isn't as much data to have to look at all at once. How's that? This idea is only for future posts, we're not concerned with doing that part yet.
We need to discuss not just new reports, but what TYPES of new reports are we looking for and for what currencies they directly affect. Obviously the Bank of England's report affects the British pound, but what about all other pertinent data involved? Does the European Union's reports do anything to the British pound as well as the euro? Do the Asian reports do anything not just to the Japanese yen, but also to the British pound since the GBP/JPY is a highly popular currency pair for its high volatility?
Why does the USD/CHF do the exact opposite of the EUR/USD 99% of the time? Does oil, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, etc. all have anything to do with currency pairs going up or down since the markets seem to all be interconnected (positive correlation with the EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, etc.)? Why do all these big time market big shots making millions every year have 7 or 8 computer screens in front of them - what data are they looking at and what do they conclude from it? Why don't they just level it down to only 3 or 4 computer screens where they have all the data combined through some form of software - or does it have to be arranged only they way they have it arranged?
Now I know volume spread analysis has been given credulity by a number of people - it has its supporters as well as detractors, the reasons being that one argues that there is no actual volume in forex due to there being no centralization. However the supporters argue that tick volume suffices and one can draw accurate predictions when supply/demand/accumulation/distribution is about to take place. Perhaps volume spread analysis may be a factor that we could consider, but if one suggests it should, we need to see everything involved from start to finish and that involves, once again, what causes the price to go up or down from the get go. VSA would thus compliment prediction... second only, however, to the aforementioned data needed regarding what just made the price index point move in the direction it did on any given bar or candle.
Hopefully this will give some insight as to what I'm visualizing... a completely different approach where we go to the very heart and soul of why markets move even so much as one point, in spite of however many variables are involved. Let's just discuss what all of them are... and I do mean all of them, not just a summary of the most relevant. The more data we have, the better the results - quite obviously. As far as I'm concerned, this becomes my "trading style" that I prefer above all others. The question is, what all do we need to know? Let this thread be a collection of everyone's knowledge as to what all has to be taken into consideration for even the slightest movement to occur on a market chart. We'll worry about what to do with all of it later.
Thank you much
PS