Trading Silver with PSAR SUPERTREND EA plus ZigandZag & PSAR Oscillator Confirming - page 9

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xx3xxx
1756
xx3xxx  

I did not download the Psar here -- so I won't comment this few indicator

but the PSAR indicator that I download 4 years ago -- is no good for trading

Bob Fisher
316
Bob Fisher  

Damaini

Hi JJ

Here are two versions, the 3.2.1 is the one on the charts. The other is something else by Damaini. Every time I use the indicator, it looks good and then I see so many places where it would have prevented trades.

Will probably not get anything done until next week. Bogged up.

Enjoy the AZ sunshine this week and get to the Grillin' Van

Bob

JJJohnson
154
JJJohnson  
xx3xxx:
I did not download the Psar here -- so I won't comment this few indicator but the PSAR indicator that I download 4 years ago -- is no good for trading

In reply to: xx3xxx

Thanks for the input!

Do you have a different indicator that signals when to close your trades that you find DOES work well in actual trading?

JJ Johnson

JJJohnson
154
JJJohnson  

To Tzuman:

Hope everything has worked out well for you, Bob. What you said last week reminds me of the saying:

"When you're up to your armpits in alligators, it's hard to remember that your mission was to drain the swamp (bog)."

Meanwhile, I have looked at the Damaini indicators and I concur; we probably give up more than we gain.

Besides, the Zazzy strategy gets us in near the highs/lows and we are generally in a trade or waiting for a trade setup when the damaini indicators kick in their signals. While they look pretty, especially the volatmeters, they don't add anything of value to the EA. Plus, the Inst Trendline does the same job as the Gann Hi/Lo indicator, only not as well.

Anyway, let us know how things are going with you and what I can do to help!!

Joe

JJJohnson
154
JJJohnson  

To Tzuman:

We haven't heard from you in several weeks; I can only hope that it is GOOD STUFF has is occupying your time and attention!

Meanwhile, I have been manually back-testing strategies using the ZAZZY indicators. Have learned a lot from the exercises; have had good results as I've honed my trading methodology.

Using approximately nine weeks from mid-June to mid_August, I backtested SILVER on the M15 TF, trading the signals manually and writing down the results. I show a gross profit of $6,863.00 trading 0.10 lots. Losses totalled $1204.00, for a NET profit of $5659.00.** That involved 94 PROFITABLE trades and 13 LOSING trades; a ratio of 86% wins vs 14%% losses.

**Note that I corrected my math above. (Also, the period may have been longer than nine weeks, as I did the tests over several days. Have done a new test which I plan to post Tuesday, August 23rd, which was all done in one run.) Basic conclusions remain the same.

I varied the SLOW ZZ from 7 to 9. The seven had more false high/lows; once these are programmed into an EA we will be able to find the best settings. Right now my default settings would consist of:

Fast ZZ = 2

Slow ZZ = 9

Hi/Lo Indicator = 14

StopLoss = 200 (for the M15 TF)

This is definitely a CONTRARIAN EA! It reminds me some of BLESSING 3, which is a grid pattern EA that was developed elsewhere on this TSD forum. Blessing 3 however, was fatally flawed in that it had no clue as to whether the market was ranging or trending, plus it's hedging strategy was faulty; but thats another story.

Wouldn't mind seeing the ZAZZY indicators grafted onto Blessing. Would that create a BLESSING OMEGA? :-)

Anyway, my hope is that we can get a working EA up and running.

I believe it will vindicate our efforts!

Hope all is going well for you, Bob!!

Joe

Bob Fisher
316
Bob Fisher  

Hi Joe,

I've sent you several emails to the address in the private response. It looks like you have not received them.

Tzuman

JJJohnson
154
JJJohnson  

To Everyone:

Tzuman was right; I'd missed his emails. Finally found them.

In manually backtesting ZAZZY (yep! tracking the trades with paper & pen!!) using the fast & slow Gann ZigZags, plus the Gann Hi/Lo indicator, we obtained excellent results, as noted in post #86.

One BIG weakness of the system is what can happen during a drifting up or down market. Setting the Hi/Lo indicator at 14 gives you room enough that during a parabolic move you would only have one trade hit the stoploss if you had already opened a contrarian position.

But in a stair-step trending market you could repeatedly open buy or sell positions as the fast Z or the price action (whichever you preferred) crossed the Hi/Lo line, only to have the market continue on in the opposite direction, resulting in the positions hitting their StopLosses.

In the M15 TF a 200 pip S/L seems appropriate. That means that 5 busted trades could wipe out a $1,000.00 starter account, trading 0.10 lots per trade. Didn't have that happen in the two month period (selected randomly) that I tested, but you know if it CAN happen, sooner or later IT WILL!

Put your ingenuity to work and see if you can come up with a solution to this; then let us know what you came up with!!

JJ Johnson

JJJohnson
154
JJJohnson  

To Tzuman:

Regarding the Gann Hi/Lo indicator, try setting the input to 14, if you haven't done so already. I found this to give sufficient 'breathing' space to the price action to avoid most of the whipsaws we saw earlier.

Have put the indicators you sent me through their paces and found one that looks VERY PROMISING: That is the GANN indicator.

I will be manually testing a strategy using the Slow Gann ZigZag and the GANN indicator, along with price action. It is so 'KISS' it almost hurts my feelings! And the Slow ZZ is there mostly to assuage my cravings as an indicator junkie; the EA may not need it at all!!

For sure it should be simpler to program than the previous ZAZZYs. Will let you know the results later this week.

Enjoy your vacation!!

(Who sang that song: "Toes in the water, back-side in the sand -- Not a worry in the world, a cold beer in my hand -- Life is good today...Life is good today"??)

JJ

xx3xxx
1756
xx3xxx  

the answer to the above question is

Zac Brown Band

Toes lyrics

JJJohnson
154
JJJohnson  

To Everyone:

First: Thanks xx3xxx for identifying that musical group (Post #90)!

Now, here are the results of manually doing (essentially) side-by-side tests of the Fast & Slow Gann ZZs/Hi-Lo indicators (Zazzy) vs the GANN Slow ZZ with GANN indicator (Gazzy).

The test period I selected ran from May 23, 2011 to August 17, 2011, a little over 12 weeks. I selected those dates to coincide with trend reversals of the markets, as ID'd by the Slow ZZ indicator. For both tests I used the EURO/USD on the H1 TF and traded 0.10 lots.

I took my positions testing Zazzy based on the closing price crossing the Hi/Lo indicator. Gazzy positions were taken using the closing price when the GANN indicator changed color. (PLEASE! SOMEONE COME UP WITH A BETTER NAME FOR GAZZY!!) :-)

ZAZZY saw 41 trades, of which 68% were winners and 32% were losers. Gross profits were $3,220 while losses totaled $2,044. Max drawdown was $1,222. Unfortunately, drawdowns resulted from five $200.00 stop-losses in the first six trades of the test, which would have virtually wiped out my $1,000 starting balance. In fact, the next two trades were also losses, finishing the job.

For test purposes I kept on trading, resulting in a net profit of $1,176.00. Earlier testing indicated that using a tighter S/L reduced the losses, but (usually) also reduced the gains. In this time period it would probably have worked better, but I didn't try it that way.

Conclusion: This form of ZAZZY needs to have a larger starting balance, say $5,000 or so. Also, some way to clue the EA in to step aside from trading before blowing up the account.

The good news:

GAZZY did much better! It only took 30 trades, but resulted in 29 wins and only 1 loss during this SAME time period. Thats a 97% success rate, which in and of itself doesn't mean much. However, the gross profit came to $4,800.00 and the lone loss was only $14.00. You read it right: Net profit was $4,786.00!

Now I am looking to see if using either a second GANN indicator or the Hi/Lo indicator will allow me to buy pullbacks during the trend, so as to increase profits. Of course, I'm open to suggestions in this regard.

Once Tzuman gets back from vacation and can build a test EA using the GANN indicator, I will test it through all sorts of currencies, time-frames and strategies to see how robust it is. Meanwhile, I'll keep plugging along and let everyone know how things progress, as I am able.

Have yourselves a GREAT day!!

JJ Johnson

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