It will never be 50/50... revise your mathematics!
If spread was nonexistant then it is 50/50. So you have to overcome spread to even be in the positive.
tossing a coin ?
LOL @ tossing a coin. Tossing a coin will yield at best less then 50% chance of winning due to spreads IF a population was formed and not a sample.
Obviously many people here lack mathematical knowledge.
There is one mathematical method that yields a higher result then what I have read here so far...
I did not use this method in trading but think I should use this technique to check how much it is profitable for me.
Most of you here certainly know a famous trader in another forum who started trading tossing a coin with great success.
For those who are bad traders (and know this fact), the best idea to become a better trader is to always take the opposite direction they would have taken ... of course they must take the (bad) decision first ... then enter in opposite direction ! This is not a new idea but worth to be remembered for those who want to try some interesting/weird strategies ...
Toss coin is the right strategy only if the Gods are on your side! That means you have to have a clean karma registry.
You can use this method when you play the red/black on roulette but you need to apply Martingale or Fibs numbers like:
1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55. Once, I was sure 10 times in row on black & red on roulette table just tossing pendulum! Some gurus can see the number coming before the ball falls in the pockets! That's intuition.
When I play craps my intuition tells me when to take the bets down before 7 out. When I don't listen (greed) I am always sorry! You can develop intuition through meditation. In the beginning you will be most of the time wrong but the more you trust the intuition the more exact you will be later. You will be never 100% right because gods would be jealous that you are better then they are but solid 90% is reachable. The more you trust the divine the more successful you will be!
But jail GREED in fridge when you trade/gamble!
Cool Hermes . . . And you're right. After enough screen time I can often tell when a good signal will end-up being a loser and am able to get out quickly at BE. I save 3 or 4 losers each morning that way and it adds up!
I hesitated to reply but... If you can turn a profit with a coin toss (say because of excellent exit skills) why not throw in some more rational analysis and raise your bottom line?
On the MM thread, I have backtested very well many weird ideas and it doesn't seem that you could turn a profit with random entries with TP greater than SL (just to claim I got good MM and good RR).
I wish it worked though :P
This method is interesting to say the least. Might try it out. Are you guys sure it's a 50:50 ratio? Somebody's probably done the math on this. Also, does anyone mind showing their results?
Coin toss method will work only if there is a large number of "tosses" (opened orders) and by then the losing streak can wipe your account out (or make you rich in the case of wining streak, but that case is much less probable since your account is limited from down (0)). So, you are limited by the size of your account
Generally speaking heads is long and tails is short, but the tosser must choose which is which BEFORE the toss.
As for the number of lots to trade, don�t fret�.the garage always has the right tool for the job�..just dust off that old dartboard and have at it.
This system is proven to randomize your outcomes for those stressful days where every trade you do is wrong.
-------- Coin analysis ----------
:) :) Truly speaking this is the funniest thread ever I came across.. This method seems like just DO OR DIE trading system....
I will definitely do this once, do before I die...