Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company - page 34
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Mizuho: Swiss franc will renew highs versus US dollar
Technical analysts at Mizuho Securities claim that Swiss franc may rise to the record high trading versus the greenback.
In their view, the pair USD/CHF is in the clear downtrend. US dollar was constrained by the resistance line connecting maximums of February 11, April 1 and May 16. On May 4 American currency hit the all-time minimum of 0.8552.
The specialists underline that the pair has been staying below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud since February 17. According to Mizuho, USD/CHF is moving down to 0.85 or 0.80.
Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is finding support ahead of its 200-day MA at $1.40 and the Cloud base at 1.3975.
The specialists regard the current dynamics of the single currency as consolidation. All the attempts of the bulls to move higher were limited by the downtrend resistance line from May 5 maximum at 1.4195 and 1.4305/45.
In their view, euro is poised sown to the 1.3770 level representing 38.2% retracement of the advance in 2010-2011.
Morgan Stanley: default and restructuring in Greece are unlikely
Last week Fitch Ratings cut Greece's rating from BB+ to B+, 4 levels below investment grade.
Strategists at Morgan Stanley think that an outright default or restructuring of Greece’s debt is won’t happen this year. Although the specialists aren’t ruling out the potential “reprofiling” of the Greek debt – new term first used by Jean-Claude Junker on May 17 that means the extension on Greek bonds’ maturities. However, such outcome also seems to be unlikely, says Morgan Stanley. Analysts at Credit Suisse think that the European authorities won’t let Greece restructure its debt in the near term as no one wants to risk having another shock like that created by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
According to Morgan Stanley, what’s happening in Greece depends on political decisions, not just economic ones. Angela Merkel said last week that the restructuring is out of the question. However, the European authorities are not yet ready to make distinct steps to resolve the region’s problems.
MS believes that some of the uncertainty seen so far is going to dissipate. The specialists think that euro may appreciate during a month from now. They advise investors to be cautious but ready to establish long euro positions again as dollar may be affected by the weak US economic data. As for the United States, the interest rates are not going anywhere until there is either strong inflation or strong growth numbers that one certainly can’t expect to see during the next few weeks.