[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts & Consequences (Episode 12: February 2012) - page 61
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Analysts at Lloyds Bank believe the single currency could break the minimum level against the Swiss franc, which the Swiss National Bank set in September at 1.2000.
Experts believe that the long-term chart still indicates the risk of EUR/CHF falling to 1.1311 before hitting the 4-year downtrend. The bank notes that the pair has been testing the resistance line on the monthly chart in recent months, but it has never managed to move upwards.
Lloyds believes that the resistance for the pair is located at 1.2490 (October-December highs), while the support is around 1.1274 (the monthly Ishimoku conversion line, marked in red on the chart). Over time, the pair will continue to trade in a bearish trend and support and resistance levels will shift downward in a planned manner.
Last week the world's leading economists met in Davos to discuss the "crisis of capitalism", the future of the global economy and the global monetary system, the problems of stimulating economic growth and employment, and of course the debt crisis in Europe.
The forum was honored with his presence, as usual, by the famous billionaire investor George Soros who issued another harsh criticism of the European authorities. According to the expert, the Eurozone authorities have acted disorderly where a unified approach is needed.
Soros noted that the monetary union states need, firstly, a single financial authority, whose main tasks would be to control the budget policy of the member countries and impose penalties for budget overruns. Secondly, the Eurozone needs to issue single Eurobonds after all, Soros is convinced.
From the Economist's point of view, Germany is on the wrong track: austerity measures in peripheral countries, which the largest European economy insists upon, will only create a deflationary debt spiral in Europe.
Another famous economist Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, believes that the ECB should continue easing its monetary policy to save the eurozone.
I thought no one was interested anymore...
Greece's negotiations with its private creditors continue. On 31 January the country's Prime Minister Lucas Padademos said that the country would make every effort to ensure that the negotiation process ends this week.
Bloomberg news agency reports that there is talk that Athens has managed to persuade bondholders to lower the coupon on 30-dollar bonds from 4.25% to 3.6%.
Despite all fears about the future of the Eurozone, hopes that an agreement between Greece and its creditors will soon be reached have helped the Euro to strengthen in recent days. At the same time, most experts say that once a deal has been reached, it will be necessary to sell the Euro.
Many market participants are already tired of the protracted negotiation process. Analysts at BMO Capital say that Greek negotiations could continue in March when Greece has to repay a large amount of debt.
Specialists are also very concerned about the fate of Portugal. The yield on the country's 10-year bonds is above 15% after peaking at 17.4% on Monday. According to the BMO, it is necessary to sell EUR/USD at
$1.3185, putting stops at $1.3285 and targeting $1.2885. Investors who want to wait for a potential rise in the euro on news of a deal can adjust this recommendation, keeping the same target-to-stop ratio (3:1), the bank said.
The Bank of New York Mellon believes that the success of the Greek deal is already factored into the euro exchange rate, so there won't be a significant rise on the news. In Westpac continue to expect restoration of euro to level $1.3400, on which, from their point of view, it should open short positions.
Well, you say it's not interesting.
Last week the world's leading economists met in Davos to discuss the "crisis of capitalism", the future of the global economy and the global monetary system, the problems of stimulating economic growth and employment, and of course the debt crisis in Europe.
The forum was honored with his presence, as usual, by the famous billionaire investor George Soros who issued another harsh criticism of the European authorities. According to the expert, the Eurozone authorities have acted disorderly where a unified approach is needed.
Soros noted that the monetary union states need, firstly, a single financial authority, whose main tasks would be to control the budget policy of the member countries and impose penalties for budget overruns. Secondly, the Eurozone needs to issue single Eurobonds after all, Soros is convinced.
From the Economist's point of view, Germany is on the wrong track: austerity measures in peripheral countries, which the largest European economy insists upon, will only create a deflationary debt spiral in Europe.
Another famous economist Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, believes that the ECB should continue easing its monetary policy to save the eurozone.
Have Joric put in place of Draghi)))
The Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the US dollar for the sixth consecutive day.
There is talk in the market of a possible Japanese currency intervention as well as further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan. Such talk could provide some support for the USD/JPY pair, preventing it from falling well below the 76 yen mark.
Japanese Central Bank deputy governor Hirohide Yamaguchi reiterated today that the BOJ is ready to act as the European debt crisis remains a threat to world markets and the economy.
The country's Finance Minister Jun Azumi and Economy Minister Motohisa Furukawa stressed the need to overcome deflation (which can be done by monetary stimulation of the economy). Azumi noted that there are "an increasing number of speculative movements in the market which are impossible to follow" and that the latest rise in the yen is the fault of the Federal Reserve, which promised to keep interest rates at record lows until the end of 2014.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch experts believe that if the USD/JPY falls below 75 yen, Japan's monetary authorities will intervene in the currency market in a bid to save national exporters. As a reminder, the country sold 14.3 trillion yen ($187 billion) last year.
Nevertheless, JP Morgan believes Bank of Japan intervention is highly unlikely, even if the pair regains record lows, as the United States has been strongly critical of Japanese unilateral interventions.
Meanwhile, the Nomura Research Institute is of the opinion that Japan should abandon currency interventions as a strong yen makes energy imports cheaper, which is now very important for Japan, which is experiencing problems with its own nuclear capacity.
The US government has effectively frozen high-level contacts with Ukraine
Soros noted that the monetary union states need, firstly, a single financial authority whose main tasks would be to control the budget policies of the member states and impose sanctions for budget overruns. Secondly, the Eurozone needs to issue single Eurobonds after all, Soros is convinced.
From the Economist's point of view, Germany is on the wrong track: austerity measures in peripheral countries, which the largest European economy insists upon, will only create a deflationary debt spiral in Europe.
Another famous economist Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, believes that the ECB should continue easing its monetary policy to save the eurozone.
Jorik has a point, they are chopping the bough by squeezing the periphery, or counting on the "new markets" to support demand
The US government has effectively frozen high-level contacts with Ukraine
Woe is us
Zhorik is right, they are barking up the periphery, or they count on the "new markets" to support demand.
Zhorik is amused, and they're all over him .....
O woe to us
I understand your sarcasm... but that attitude says something... as they say, a relationship vector... well, it's a shame, to be honest.