Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company - page 211
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Commerzbank: bears on NZD/USD
According to analysts at Commerzbank, NZD/USD might have ended a minor corrective move higher at $0.8145 (August 21 maximum) and is now declining towards $0.8037 (August minimum).
In their view, the uptrend channel support line, connecting June and July minimums, remains in focus. A break below would lead to $0.7808 (July minimum) and then to 0.7458 (June minimum). Resistance is seen at $0.8146 (August 21 maximum) and $0.8220 (August highs).
Chart. Daily NZD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
TD Securities: FOMC minutes won’t say much
Analysts at TD Securities think that the FOMC meeting minutes won’t clarify in any way what are the Fed’s plans concerning monetary policy.
“For starters, if one is looking for signals, the Fed does not rely on the minutes to signal policy shifts. That is what speeches, testimonies, and other public venues are used for." At the same time, there may be some comments about other policy tools: "After all, that is the topic of the Jackson Hole speech and was clearly the topic at the August meeting”.
So, the specialists advise traders to temper expectations as the great revelation today is unlikely.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in command of the FOMC - centralbanking.com
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
EUR/JPY: technical update
EUR/JPY is rising since the end of July when it hit the minimal levels since 2000 around 94.10 yen. The pair has entered the descending daily Ichimoku Cloud for the first time since it broke below the cloud in early May. On the downside, the Cloud’s bottom will provide support for the single currency.
Euro’s currently testing the 98.65 level (61.8% Fibo retracement of the decline from June 21 maximum). If EUR/JPY gets higher, it will get chance to revisit 101.60 yen.
At the same time, EUR/JPY still remains within longer-term downtrend and at some point it’s likely to return to the 94.00 zone. Analysts at MIG Bank recommend looking for “signs of weakness closer to the resistance at 101.63 to initiate a short position”.
We concede a correction towards 98.00 (50% Fib. retracement and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud). What’s more, on the H4 chart RSI indicator is close to 70.
Chart. Daily EUR/JPY
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
August 23: forex news
On Wednesday the main market event was the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Many Fed policymakers think additional stimulus probably will be needed soon unless the economy shows signs of a rebound. On the back of this data EUR/USD reached a 6-week high at $1.2552. Today’s session may bring plenty of potentially negative data for the single currency: German final GDP, German and French PMIs and EU flash PMI (7:00-8:00 GMT). In the US initial jobs claims will be printed at 12:30 GMT and new home sales – at 14:00 GMT. A meeting between Merkel and Hollande scheduled for today could offer enough news to move the pair either way.
High-yielding currencies such as AUD and NZD also rocketed on Fed’s news, offsetting previous losses they suffered ahead of today’s PMI releases in Europe. However, there growth was limited after HSBC China PMI printed the lowest level of 2012 at 47.8, down from 49.3 in July. AUD/USD, therefore, reached $1.0544, but then slid to the levels around $1.0500. NZD/USD jumped to $0.8184 on easing prospects, but then slipped to the $0.8160 area. USD/CAD trades around 0.9890.
GBP/USD rose to $1.5907 after a three-day growth. The pair will be strongly influenced by the EU data. USD/JPY trades around 78.55 yen after a drop to 78.30 on the Fed (lowest since August 13).
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
AUD/USD: technical picture
AUD/USD trades around $1.0500, on the upside for the fourth day in a row. On the H4 chart Aussie’s consolidating in the $1.0535/0420 band. The general uptrend since June is still intact.
Chart. H4 AUD/USD
Although US dollar was weakened by the talks of more easing from the Fed, AUD/USD doesn’t hurry to renew the recent highs around $1.0600: there’s a strong resistance there coming from the line which connects 2011 and 2012 maximums. For now the pair still has some scope for the sideways moves. According to analysts at NAB, AUD/USD is likely to trade above $1.0500 in a near-term as the greenback will remain under pressure at least until Jackson Hole.
Note that there are plenty of resistance levels on the upside (see the chart). Once $1.0420 support is breached, we’d look for a decline to another critical level of $1.0280 (200-day MA). Strategists at RBC are bearish on AUD/USD despite the fact the pair performed well over the past year and expect the RBA to lower rates by 0.75% in the next 12 months – the action which would weaken Aussie.
Chart. Daily AUD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
GBP/USD: an impressive advance
On Thursday GBP/USD tested the levels above $1.5900 (61.8% Fibo retracement from the May decline). This week the pair demonstrates impressive growth, climbing more than two big figures since Monday, when it was trading below $1.5700.
Sterling was pushed up by easing hints from the US (dovish FOMC meeting minutes) and China (weaker HSBC PMI). Tomorrow we expect the release of the revised Q2 UK GDP. The market expects UK Q2 GDP to be revised upwards from -0.7% to -0.5% q/q.
After such advance British currency is clearly overbought (see the RSI at H4 chart), so some correction’s on its way. The general outlook for the pair will remain positive as long as it’s trading above 200-day MA at $1.5715. Once above $1.5930, the pair will be on its way to $1.6000.
From a technical point of view, next resistance for GBP/USD lies at $1.5930 (February 8 maximum), $1.6000 (March 27 maximum, psychological level). On a downside, next support lies at $1.5785 (50% retracement), $1.5750 (50-day MA), $1.5715 (200-day MA), $1.5660 and $1.5620.
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
The Fed: what's next? The bets
So, the Fed!
The minutes of the FOMC most recent meeting released yesterday showed many policy makers favor additional accommodative measures to be taken “fairly soon” to stimulate growth unless the US economic recovery strengthens. Such news made US dollar weaken versus the majority of its main counterparts.
The next FOMC meeting takes place on September 12-13. Also note that Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole will take place on August 30-September 1. The Fed keeps its benchmark rate near zero since December 2008 and pledged to do so until the end of 2014. The central bank has conducted 2 rounds of asset purchases totaling $2.3 trillion in 2008-2011.
BNP Paribas: “The minutes were quite dovish and are consistent with our economists’ view that QE3 is more likely than not in September.”
Wells Fargo: “They’re closer to doing QE3 than I would have guessed. It may not be September. It could be October.”
Capital Economics: “The probability of Fed action coming in mid-September now seems to be higher. One or two of us economists thought the slightly better data in recent weeks might have put the Fed off, but I wouldn’t have thought so reading these minutes.”
Photo from fxtimes.com
Still, there are deep disagreements within the Fed on the costs and benefits of bond-buying programs. The minutes showed Fed officials decided not to act right away because they wanted to gather more data on the economy and evaluate how earlier measures were working. Since the Fed last met at the beginning of August, US economic data has improved pushing S&P 500 almost to a 4-year high, though the labor market remains a concern.
Mizuho: “The minutes were surprisingly dovish. With US easing expectations rekindled, the dollar could stay under pressure for a while, at least until Jackson Hole. The Fed will probably refrain from taking drastic easing action due to the upcoming US presidential elections... while keeping a vigilant stance against downside risks in the US economy.”
Credit Agricole: Another round of QE is “inconceivable” in the light of recent rises in commodities prices, signs of stability in the European debt crisis and recent improvement in U.S. economic indicators. Additional measures, if any, would be limited to those such as extending the current policy guidance of keeping short-term interest rates near zero at least through 2014.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
USD/JPY: back below 200-day MA
USD/JPY dropped yesterday by more than 70 pips breaching 200- and 50-day MAs. The pair’s now trying to return above the previous resistance of 78.60 (the top of the sideways channel with existed in the first half of the month.
Credit Agricole: Since there is limited scope for the dollar to fall further (the risk of Japan’s intervention), dip-buying should keep the greenback in a 78.00/79.80 range over the next week.
Sumitomo Mitsui: “When the Fed eases its policy, the dollar could fall below 78 yen. But I don't expect the dollar to fall substantially below 78 yen before any actual easing by the Fed.”
Commerzbank: Medium term bullish view on USD/JPY as long as it’s staying above 77.90 (August 1 minimum). The target is 80.00 on the upside, 77.64 (June minimum) on the downside.
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
MIG Bank: EUR/GBP will decline
Analysts at MIG Bank claim that as long as EUR/GBP is trading below 0.7963 (August 6 maximum), its upward move will be regarded as correction. In their view, the pair will return to the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000 within which it was trading in 2003-2007. The specialists recommend selling euro around 0.7960 targeting 0.7760/0.7400 (July minimums/2008 minimums).
Weekly. EUR/GBP
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
CIBC: outlook for forex majors
Analysts at CIBC World Markets note that during August there has been some cautious optimism with respect to the global growth outlook and notes this has prompted a rally in risk assets and currencies.
At the same time, CIBC thinks that the greenback may strengthen as the demand for its main alternatives – EUR and GBP – will be undermined by recessions in the euro area and in the UK. Moreover, any disappointing news about Chinese economic growth may increase pressure on commodity currencies and support USD as safe haven. American currency will be also helped by any delays of the Fed’s further QE. Such delays may happen as US economic performance has so far improved and US economy continues to growth at a moderate pace.
According to CIBC, both CAD and AUD are trading at unsustainable levels. The analysts expect CAD to fluctuate around parity versus USD in coming quarters: the catalysts for a further rally in the Canadian dollar are difficult to identify, as interest rates are unlikely to move higher and there is modest global demand for Canadian exports, though Canada retains top credit rating. AUD remains the most overvalued major currency, its strength doesn’t correspond Australian economic fundamentals.
As for EUR, CIBC think that it will be vulnerable until the ECB to show greater resolve and the euro region returns to growth. CIBC expects JPY to keep trading at the elevated levels. There is another round of global risk aversion before the end of this year CIBC sees scope for a reversal in US treasury-Japanese government bond spreads, so capping upside gains in the USD/JPY.
Image from whitneycarter.wordpress.com
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!