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Gold intraday 29-9-2013: Bullish bias above 1411.
Gold did clearly fall below a rising trend line and this might be the end of the bullish movement. But signs are not really clear and I do prefer to stand a little longer on the side lines.
[TH][/TH]
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[TR]
[TD]1395[TR]
[TD]1384[TR]
[TD]1378[TR]
[TD][TR="bgcolor: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0196078)"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]* = Last PricePivot: 1422
Our preference:Short positions below 1422 with 1395 & 1384 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1422 will call for a rebound towards 1430 & 1440.
Technical Commentary:Gold prices broke below the rising trend line. The 50 moving average is turning down.
As the single currency has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting the rise from 0.8333 low is still in progress and adding credence to our bullish view for the rise from this level to bring at least a strong correction of recent decline to 0.8530-40 and possibly towards 0.8575-80 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and risk remains for a retreat later.
Are we still doing this today?
Silver halts slide around decisive support area before US manufacturing PMI
Silver held off the critical support area around $19.70 yesterday and the same the same trend is being observed on Tuesday despite the manufecturing slowdown in China, the largest consumer of the white metal.
Technical Analysis
Silver is being traded near $19.70 at 5:30 GMT in Asia. Support can be noticed near $19.65 which is the trendline support and 23.6% fib extention. A break and daily closing below the channel could push the metal into deeper correction, threatening the double bottom support area.
On the upside, the precious metal could face the hurdle near $20.25-$20.35 an ounce which is a confluence of some major levels like 38.2% fib extension, 100 Daily Moving Average (DMA) and 55 DMA. The metal is bullish in long term due to Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) in the previous wave.
Yellen Remarks
Silver could not gain bullish momentum yesterday despite dovish remarks from the Fed chair Janet Yellen. She said the US economy still requires the stimulus, opposite to her previous stance which we saw during the monetary policy press conference on March 19. The dollar weakened and the stock markets rallied after the speech.
US Manufacturing PMI
Today, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) is scheduled to release the Manufacturing PMI report for the US. The industrial activity increased to 54 points this month compared with 53.2 points in February, the average forecast of different economists says.
Conclusion
Silver is battling a decisive support area; a breakout will provide clear direction to the precious metal. Keeping in view the ongoing Russia-West crisis and supply concerns about Silver, the metal might end the correction phase around the current levels.