Critique my Holy Grail idea - page 3
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suck blood of curious traders.....
Such a hard job, but someone's gotta do it
There is a lot of "fresh meat" out in the market, they happen to have a lot of money too.
Well, here's how my night went. First trade was around 3am short eur/usd.
Again I was tired and only lasted until 4am lol. So I covered for a profit and laid down in bed with one eye open, well that didn't last. I was off to snooze land and mr. market tanked 200 some points. I seriously need to hit up my dealer to pick up another 8-ball....Ha, just kidding. But I need to drink more coffee or something..
1am-1pm
Last night there was a total of 1 trade. And it was 100% successful (SMA 50/500). Following Aroon there was 3 trades, 2/3 winners.
I'll post a screen shot of my 2 charts.
sma 50/500 cross and the Aroon set to 200 (modded by my friend to paint as a histogram).
...
daytraderjay...you might want to explore ways of locating trustworthy/decent vampire..who will not abuse an opportunity to suck your blood completely...and who is going to have a will power to stop sucking your blood without killing you...so that you in turn will change into a vampire...that will solve that awful feeling of wanting to sleep at night...
daytraderjay...you might want to explore ways of locating trustworthy/decent vampire..who will not abuse an opportunity to suck your blood completely...and who is going to have a will power to stop sucking your blood without killing you...so that you in turn will change into a vampire...that will solve that awful feeling of wanting to sleep at night...
Haha, no worries...problem solved...all I needed was to fix my fluorescent light to turn a dim office into a daytime feel, and chugging down more caffeine.
No more yawning -> 
!!!!
100% awake and ready to rumble, be back in 8 hours to report how many vampires I staked with my "cross"!
Good thinking
Hi! I'm using the same strategy to martingale/recovery loosing trades in LIVE trading. Just another signals system. I were more succsesfull with hedging 10-20 % monthly, but now it's more complicated 5-10 % monthly. My suggestion: after wrong signal enter the market to the same direction only when you have new signal different from last order 15 or more pips (in loss). I'm using 15 pips grid. This year I allready made 44 % of profit from 18 02 2009. And still looking for setup, which gives more than 75% wining signals. Then I'll be abble to increase starting lot and increase final profit. Now it is only 0.01 lot with IBFX. And never had more than 5 lossing orders in the same time!! (It depends on signals strategy). So continue in that way! Its not a Holly but gives small profit while you are looking for it!!
Sweet.
5-10% a month is damn good. Not amazing, but most hedge funds can't even hit that kind of success right now
:)
Yeah, my strategy varies due to market conditions. But I've seen small losing streaks 6-7 trades and I've also seen winners hit on the first signal.
I would like to increase size too, but the bigger you trade, the bigger your bankroll needs to be, otherwise your risk of ruin is much higher.
Anyone else shorting euros? Seems to be moving slow/indecisive at the moment...traps set!
Edit: Please explain grids as I have never heard of this method. Thanks Levi.
Sweet.
5-10% a month is damn good. Not amazing, but most hedge funds can't even hit that kind of success right now
:)
Yeah, my strategy varies due to market conditions. But I've seen small losing streaks 6-7 trades and I've also seen winners hit on the first signal.
I would like to increase size too, but the bigger you trade, the bigger your bankroll needs to be, otherwise your risk of ruin is much higher.
Anyone else shorting euros? Seems to be moving slow/indecisive at the moment...traps set!
Edit: Please explain grids as I have never heard of this method. Thanks Levi.Hedge funds can't - because they have not 200 or even 50 leverage. I trade with 200 leverage. My system generates P/L around 1.6 and there are many winners in a row:
Profit Factor: 1.61 Expected Payoff: 0.07
Absolute Drawdown: 0.00 Maximal Drawdown: 5.96 (1.07%) Relative Drawdown: 1.07% (5.96)
Total Trades: 242 Short Positions (won %): 83 (72.29%) Long Positions (won %): 159 (66.67%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 166 (68.60%) Loss trades (% of total): 76 (31.40%)
Largest profit trade: 4.96 loss trade: -2.94
Average profit trade: 0.25 loss trade: -0.34
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 13 (2.47) consecutive losses ($): 4 (-3.47)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 6.32 (2) consecutive loss (count): -5.96 (3)
Average consecutive wins: 3 consecutive losses: 1
I meaned grid - nearest point for new entry not closer than 15 pips.
Hi! I'm using the same strategy to martingale/recovery loosing trades in LIVE trading. Just another signals system. I were more succsesfull with hedging 10-20 % monthly, but now it's more complicated 5-10 % monthly. My suggestion: after wrong signal enter the market to the same direction only when you have new signal different from last order 15 or more pips (in loss). I'm using 15 pips grid. This year I allready made 44 % of profit from 18 02 2009. And still looking for setup, which gives more than 75% wining signals. Then I'll be abble to increase starting lot and increase final profit. Now it is only 0.01 lot with IBFX. And never had more than 5 lossing orders in the same time!! (It depends on signals strategy). So continue in that way! Its not a Holly but gives small profit while you are looking for it!!
A grid system sounds dangerous. What do you do if the price falls 500 points away from your grid?
You may say "That will never happen", but really..any big geopolitical event in your Currency Pair's local can cause that.
Just curious..and if I don't properly understand what you mean by 'grid' I apologize.
I have a lot of nerve and pain tolerance. Like today, I was mountain biking, launched off a jump over a log on a steep descent...take a guess...I bailed over the handle bars, covered my face in dirt...gasping because I knocked the air out of myself
Now, most sane people would say, Ok..no more! Not me, brush it off, get to the top and do it again, except the 2nd time was perfect. I have suspension to cushion my landing which helps.
My problem on the first run was when I landed I had my weight too far forward, which caused me to flip forward. So you could say I had a success rate of 50%. Not bad at all, but if I had to clear a pit of spikes, I wouldn't do it! Because I would fall atleast once, and...impail my self quickly
What does that have to do with trading? Well, pain tolerance. There's no trader who wins 100% of all trades, so every trader needs to have some steel nerves. And a good plan if things are not working perfectly.
So far I haven't seen a losing streak that lasted very long, but it could happen. And I will find out
but I do seriously doubt it, otherwise I wouldn't attempt.
Did I mention I only trade from 1am to 1pm (london-NYC sesh)? Thats the highest probability for breakouts. 1pm-12pm is usually sideways chop, and I'm generalizing, but it usually is much tighter.
I appreciate your criticisms
Let's see what happens, I can post blotter(s) as I get this rolling.Well I wish you luck. My lack of faith is simply because I have extensively researched the possibility of using Martingale in FOREX and it doesn't seem viable over time. It's like those people who do it in blackjack and say "I'll never see a 20 run losing streak" and invariably it happens. Forex (aka, the house) always has the advantage over you imo. A wise poster on this forum (forgive me my friend I don't remember your username) once told me (im paraphrasing) that if you can't make money using simple MA crosses and a filter than you should give up the 'Forex game'.
Maybe you will never get 14 bad trades in a row...maybe you will..that I can't tell you. What I can tell you is that when using Martingale the odds are always stacked against you in the long run. Probability demands that you will have winning streaks and losing streaks. The extent of your losing streaks is what matters here. Further, you are using 'a system' and indicators...does that mean you are doing anything other than coin flipping? That depends on who you ask..and I don't know. If you are getting better than 50% hit rates on your trades CONSISTENTLY over time then you might have an edge, but since the Market (in all her craftiness) is DYNAMIC you probably wouldn't be able to maintain that. See..many 'a system' has been profitable at one time only to crash and burn when the markets mood changed.
Just my two cents. I'll keep an eye on the thread and your progress.
And yeah, Wannabe, stay away from Grid systems..unless you have money to waste. It's the same kind of thing as Martingale. It lures you into thinking it's easy money until BOOM the 'impossible' happens. And BTW, the market doesn't need a 911 type event to move 500 points in one direction, lol..but I understand what your getting at.
Today's trading was slow, boring and profitable!!!
I had 3 losing trades and my 4th was a nice winner (the nice pop on eur/usd). That's only 25% win rate, which isn't even good, but enough to pull a profit.
So my leverage started at .01-.02-.04-.08--->then I won 37 pips at .08
And I would say today was the worst day to trade this whole week. Today was profitable despite range conditions.
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Cyclesurfer:
I agree with you somewhat. I've thought how martingale is used by compulsive gamblers in blackjack, roulette, etc and the main reason it doesn't work is because the casino has imposed critical rules on each game to keep it in their favor. Obviously if they didn't add the rules, casinos would lose money, fast.
Rules such as:
1. Table minimum and maximum bet. If you bring 200$ to paly black jack, the smallest tables are usually 5$ min and 300$ max. Bankroll can't support it. 5-10-20-40-80-160-(320). 6 bets and you're maxed out. Game over.
2. Roulette. The casino added 0 and 00 (2 green slices) to the wheel.
Plus, there is still a min/max at every table.
Blackjack: Casino added 3 extra decks so there is 4 decks usually, impossible to card count, and a lot more possible for dealer to also hit 21 multiple times in a row.
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Now say we exchange the word "casino" for "market," what is the minimum bet and maximum bet? There is none! Some brokers allow you to go down to .01 per pip, and the maximum doesn't exist (well not for the average retail joe).
Has the "casino" "house" added 2 green slices? 4 extra decks?
Nope. Who is or what is the "house" and what is their "edge" in trading?
People often refer to the "house" and say they have the advantage.
There is no "house." If you go to the Taj Mahal casino owned by Donal Trump, the house and edge would be the Taj Mahal, because they have set their rules and table min/max to what makes them the most money.
There are millions of participants in the currency market every day.
To say there is one "house" would be a stretch, because we would atleast know the name of who or what the house is, and a list of rules.
The house is a rather large group of profitable traders. Banks, hedge funds, investment banks, individuals etc. We all have the same data, tools, access to fundamentals and technical analysis.
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Basically we're all coin flipping! My friend took 4k and coin flipped his way up to 185k, you would think he has an edge right? Nope! He even admits it's almost all luck. He doesn't have an actual trade plan, other than 'do what makes sense basically' and sometimes that means all-in...
Will he blow up in the end? Who knows. You would think breaking EVERY rule in money management would be killer!
This true story just shows really how f-ed up trading can be! You can do something so crazy and impossible and it can potentially work. Or you can follow the herd and do what they all do-and lose.
Do you play poker Cyclesurfer? It's like betting on a good hand only to get owned by a bad beat basically. Good bets can lose, and sometimes bad bets can actually win.
I guess I should add, bad beats are more "rare" but it's happened to me enough to knock me out of a poker tournament after 5 nasty bad beats in a row. You start to think if AA is really better than 33...it really isn't...
It happens, and it will happen in trading. Therefore I'm careful with my leverage.
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Keep ya posted