Intraday trading signal - page 59
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AceTraderFx Sept 25 : Euro slips on concerns over economic recovery in euro zone
Market Review - 24/09/2013 22:13GMT
Euro slips on concerns over economic recovery in euro zone
The single currency weakened against the greenback on Tuesday after German sentiment data came in slightly below expectations and comments from ECB officials saying they were prepared to do more to keep interest rates low.
Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and rose briefly to session high at 1.3519 in early European morning, euro retreated after the release of weaker-than-expected German business climate and dropped to an intra-day low at 1.3464 after comments from ECB's Coeure. However, euro pared intra-day losses and rebounded to 1.3497 in New York morning before stabilising.
Germany Ifo business climate (Sep) came in at 107.7, versus the forecast of 108.0, previous reading is revised to 107.6
ECB's Coeure said 'ECB is committed to make sure liquidity will remain ample; LTRO is part of ECB's instruments.'
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rose to session high at 99.18 in European morning after comments from Fed's Dudley yesterday increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could still taper its bond purchases this year. However, dollar met renewed selling there and dropped sharply to an intra-day low at 94.48 in New York morning but only to climb back to 99.01 later in the day due to renewed cross-selling of yen.
The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and dropped sharply in early European morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. mortgage approvals. Price eventually fell to an intra-day low at 1.5955 at New York open, however, cable pared intra-day losses and rebounded to 1.6016 in New York morning.
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals (Aug) came in at 38.2K, vs the forecast of 39.0K, previous reading is revised to 37.4K.
In other news, BoE's Miles said 'degree of slack in U.K economy means monetary policy won't quickly return to normal; market sees unemployment reaching 7% threshold more quickly than he considers likely; idea that guidance has backfired because of better data is "Alice in wonderland, upside down logic"; more confident about path to recovery than at any time since he joined MPC in 2009.'
On the data front, U.S. consumer confidence (Sep) came in at 79.7, worse than the forecast of 80.0, previous reading is revised to 81.8. U.S. Redbook retail sales came in at -0.4% m/m n 3.6% y/y.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand trade balance, exports and import, Japan machine tool orders, Swiss consumption indicator, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. durable goods, and new home sales on Wednesday.
AceTraderfx : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics
AceTraderfx Sept 25 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2549
25 Sep 201300:01GMT
Y'day's anticipated gain to 1.2559 signals cor-
rective rise fm last Thur's 3-mth low at 1.2422 wud
extend to 1.2595/00 b4 prospect of a retreat later.
Buy again on dips for 1.2595 n only below 1.2496
signals recovery is possibly over, risks 1.2479/84.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2530
OBJECTIVE : 1.2595
STOP-LOSS : 1.2495
RES : 1.2559/1.2584/1.2610
SUP : 1.2524/1.2496/1.2479
AceTraderFx Sept 26 : Dollar weakens broadly on U.S. government shutdown fears
Market Review - 25/09/2013 22:19GMT
Dollar weakens broadly on U.S. government shutdown fears
The dollar weakened across the board on Wednesday, weighed down by worries about gridlock in Washington on the U.S. budget that could lead to a government shutdown next week.
Although the single currency briefly retreated to 1.3462 in Asian morning, euro rallied to 1.3520 in European morning on dollar's weakness. Later, despite a pullback to 1.3494 in New York morning, renewed buying lifted the pair and price rose to session high at 1.3538 at New York midday before easing.
The British pound dropped to session low at 1.5980 in Asian morning, however, dollar's broad-based weakness lifted the pair and cable rallied in European morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.K. CBI distributive trades and eventually hit an intra-day high at 1.6088 in New York session before trading sideways. U.K. CBI distributive trades (Sep) came in at 34, better than the forecast of 23.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asia and weakened to an intra-day low at 98.38 in European morning on concerns over U.S. budget negotiations. Dollar later pared intra-day losses on renewed cross-selling of yen and staged a recovery to 98.82 in New York morning before falling near New York close.
In other news, ECB's Asmussen said 'ESM treaty will have to change before it can be used for bank recapitalization.'
On the data front, U.S. durable goods (Aug) came in at 0.1%, versus the forecast of 0.0%, previous reading was revised to -8.1%; U.S. durable goods ex. transport (Aug) came in at -0.1%, versus the forecast of 1.0%, previous reading was revised to -0.5%; U.S. ex. defense (Aug) came in at 0.5%, previous reading was revised to -7.5%. In a separate report, U.S. new home sales (Aug) came in at 0.421M and 7.9% m/m, better than the forecasts of 0.420M and 6.6% m/m respectively.
Data to be released on Thursday:
France consumer confidence, U.K. current account, GDP, U.S. GDP, PCE core, jobless claims, personal consumption and pending home sales.
AceTraderfx Sept 26 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11565
26 Sep 2013 01:53GMT
Usd's breach of 11520 to 11580 (Tue) confirms LT
upmove fm 8455 has once again resumed n upside bias
is seen for further gain to 11590 n 11650 later.
Trade fm long side n only below 11495 signals a
temporary top is made, risks retracement twd 11430.
STRATEGY : Long at 11500
POSITION : Long at 11500
OBJECTIVE : 11590
STOP-LOSS : 11540
RES : 11590/11650/11700
SUP : 11520/11495/11430
AceTraderFx Sept 26 : Daily Market Outlook on Minors/Crosses – EUR/GBP
DAILY EUR/GBP CROSS OUTLOOK - 0.8407
26 Sep 2013 07:11GMT
Y'day's breach of 0.8404 (Mon) confirms correc-
tion fm last Wed's low at 0.8353 has ended earlier
at 0.8475 (Mon) n consolidation with downside bias
is seen, however, a breach of said sup needed to
extend MT downtrend fm 0.8815 twds 0.8320/25.
Sell on recovery for 0.8370 with stop as indicat
ed n only abv 0.9475 res wud abort n risk 0.8505.
STRATEGY : Sell at 0.8430
OBJECTIVE : 0.8370
STOP-LOSS : 0.8460
RES : 0.8449/0.8475/0.8505
SUP : 0.8383/0.8353/0.8323
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Dollar rises against other major currencies on upbeat U.S. data
Market Review - 26/09/2013 22:18GMT
Dollar rises against other major currencies on upbeat U.S. data
The greenback strengthened against majority of its peers on Thursday after data showed jobless claims dropped last week to a near 6-year low, this upbeat data increased speculation of the Federal Reserve will strat tapering its bond purchases at its October or December FOMC meeting.
The single currency remained under pressure in Asia and dropped to 1.3486 in European morning before trading sideways, euro staged a recovery to 1.3511 in New York morning. However, price met renewed selling there and later fell to session low of 1.3472 at New York midday.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rallied in Asian morning to 99.11 on speculation of Japan's government will cut corporate taxes. However, price pared intra-day gains and retreated to 98.51 in European morning before rising to session high at 99.14 in New York morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.S. GDP data, jobless claims and pending home sales.
U.S. GDP annualised (Q2 final) came in at 2.5% versus the forecast of 2.6%. U.S. jobless claims came in at 305K versus the forecast of 325K, previous reading was revised to 310K. In a separate report, U.S. pending home sales (Aug) came in at -1.6% month/month, worse than the forecast of -1.0% m/m, previous reading was revised to -1.4% month/month.
The British pound edged higher to session high at 1.6096 in early European morning, however, cabled tumbled after release of trade data which showed deficits widened in Q2 and U.K. annual GDP showed economic growth was less than early estimate, damping optimism the U.K. recovery is gathering momentum. Price continued to drop in New York morning after the release of U.S. economic data to an intra-day low at 1.5999 (Reuters) before staging a short-covering rebound to 1.6043 in New York afternoon.
In other news, ECB's Constancio says 'easy for ECB to absorb excess liquidity in financial system, when desired; will keep key interest rates stable or lower for extended period of time; if there is upward pressure on short-term market rates, we still have tools to react.'
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI and Tokyo CPI, U.K. nationwide house prices, Gfk consumer confidence, business barometer, France GDP, Swiss KOF leading indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI and HICP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE , and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Sept 27 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK- 1.2553
27 Sep 2013 00:03GMT
Y'day's rebound fm 1.2523 signals pullback fm
Wed's 1.2573 high has edned n upmove fm last Thur's
3-mth low at 1.2422 wud head to 1.2600/10 'later'.
Hold long for this move n only a daily close be-
low 1.2515 (38.2% r) risks weakness to 1.2479.
STRATEGY : Long at 1.2545
POSITION : Long at 1.2545
OBJECTIVE : 1.2600
STOP-LOSS : 1.2520
RES : 1.2584/1.2610/1.2647
SUP : 1.2523/1.2496/1.2479
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Forex Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2570
29 Sep 2013 23:44GMT
Present breach of last Wed's high at 1.2573 suggests rise fm Sep's 3-mth low at 1.2422 wud extend to 1.2584, then 1.2610 after consolidation.
Hold long for this move n only a daily close below 1.2523 signals top is made, risks 1.2495/98.
STRATEGY : Long at 1.2545
POSITION : Long at 1.2545
OBJECTIVE : 1.2600
STOP-LOSS :1.2550
RES : 1.2584/1.2610/1.2647
SUP : 1.2523/1.2496/1.2479
AceTraderFx Sept 30 : Daily outlook on Minors & Crosses NZD/USD
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8280
30 Sep 2013 01:38GMT
Fri's retreat fm 0.8320 to 0.8248 suggests reco-
very fm last Wed's 0.8217 low has ended n re-test
of said sup is seen, break wud extend twd 0.8206.
Sell on pullback with stop as indicated n only
abv 0.8320 risks stronger retracement to 0.8341.
STRATEGY : Short at 0.8280
POSITION : Short at 0.8280
OBJECTIVE : 0.8220
STOP-LOSS : 0.8310
RES : 0.8320/0.8341/0.8390
SUP : 0.8217/0.8206/0.8170
AceTraderFx Oct 2 : Dollar pares losses after ISM manufacturing data
Market Review - 01/10/2013 22:10GMT
Dollar pares losses after ISM manufacturing data
The dollar weakened against other major currencies on Monday as concerns over the economic impact of a U.S. government shutdown weighed on investor demand for the greenback, however, data showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate since April 2011 last month and dollar pared earlier loss in New York trading.
U.S. government went into a partial shutdown after Congress failed to reach a deal on a budget for the new fiscal year. Republicans have insisted on delaying the implementation of President Obama's health care reforms as a condition for passing the budget.
During the day, although the single currency rose to a fresh near 8-month peak at 1.3588 in early European trading, profit-taking pressured price lower from there and euro dropped to 1.3535 after EU's release a lower than previous manufacturing PMI data, then 1.3517 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based rebound before stabilising.
In the eurozone, a report showed that the final reading of the bloc's manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 51.1 in September, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, but below August’s 26-month high of 51.4.
Versus the yen, dollar went through another volatile session against the yen on Tuesday. Despite an initial gain to 98.73 on the back of rising Nikkei 225 index in Asia, dollar's broad-based weakness pressured price to a session low of 97.65 in Europe before staging a strong rebound on short-covering. The pair later climbed back to 98.30 in New York morning after release of upbeat ISM manufacturing data before easing and then traded sideways for rest of the session.
The British pound strengthen after finding support at 1.6181 in Asia and then rose above Monday's high of 1.6203 to a fresh 8-1/2 month high of 1.6260 in early European trading before retreating, dollar's broad-based rebound later pushed price lower in New Yok morning and cable fell to 1.6190 before stabilising.
In commodity currency, the Australian dollar rallied after RBA kept monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday, surged from 0.9289 to 0.9435 before profit-taking emerged. RBA kept its rate unchanged at 2.50% and said 'monetary policy appropriate; lower A$ would help economy; see below trend growth continuing in near term; A$ still about 10% below its April level despite recent rise; unemployment rate has edged higher; pace of borrowing still subdued; sees improvement I household n business sentiment though too soon to judge how persistent this will be.'
In other news, BoE's Tucker said 'regular stress testing of U.K. banks would improve BoE supervision, confidence in banks; stress testing would improve BoE's accountability to parliament, create healthy debate about supervision objectives; Basel capital accord could be recast to differentiate between going-concern and gone-concern requirements; banking regulators should address international distribution of losses in a crisis.'
Data to be release on Wednesday:
Australia trade balance, building approvals, U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI, ECB rate decision, U.S. ADP employment.