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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.2653
Late Update At 08 Jul 2010 04:45 GMT
Euro has finally eased after intra-day rise to a
7-week high of 1.2688 in Asia due to active cross-
buying of euro esp vs yen n expect minor consolida-
tion b4 further gain twd 1.2710 is seen, however,
reckon 1.2735/40 wud hold fm here.
Buy on dips for this move n only firm breach of
1.2620 (AUS) confirms intra-day top is made.
Range Forecast
1.2645 / 1.2675
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2693/1.2710/1.2765
S: 1.2620/1.2604/1.2586
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 08/07/2010 22:08 GMT
Euro rises to a two-month high on Trichet 's optimistic comments
Despite euro's initial pullback to 1.2620 in Australia, the single currency extended recent rise and climbed abv Wednesday's high of 1.2665 to 1.2688 in Asia on speculation stress tests for European banks will ease concerns about the health of the region's financial system. Although euro retreated to 1.2634 , active cross-buying in euro lifted the single currency again and rose to 1.2702 in NY morning after ECB President Trichet's optimistic comments. He said at a press conference that ECB interest rates remain appropriate and data suggested eurozone economic recovery continued in early 2010. He expected that the eurozone economy to grow 'at a moderate and still uneven pace in an environment of high uncertainty. Although another round of profit-taking dragged the single currency lower again, renewed buying interest at 1.2653 limited euro's downside and price then rose to a two-month high of 1.2713 in late NY session as DJI extended intra-day rise and closed up 120.71 points or 1.20% at 10139.
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at an all-time low 1.0% in line with market expectations.
The comments from the International Monetary Fund also boosted risk appetite n supported euro as it said the U.S. dollar was 'somewhat' overvalued and greater currency flexibility in some countries will be needed to support the global economy.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone ahead of Tokyo opening after the release of Japan Machine orders, which came in at -9.1% m/m, the lowest since Nov 2009, versus -3.1% forecast and rallied to 88.47 in Asia on renewed risk appetites and active cross selling in yen due to the rally in Asian equities, as Nikkei rallied by 256.09, or 2.76% to 9535.74. Later, despite staging a pullback to 88.00 in European morning, price then climbed to an intra-day high of 88.64 on renewed cross selling in yen after the release of less-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims which came in at 454,000 versus the upwardly revised reading of 475,000 prior week. Eur/jpy, aud/jpy and gbp/jpy rose sharply from 110.75 to 112.52, 75.63 to 77.89 and 133.07 to 134.58 respectively.
Although cable rose abv Wednesday's high of 1.5219 to 1.5241 in Asian mid-day fm 1.5174 , cross selling in the British pound especially versus euro (eur/gbp rose fm 0.8312 to 0.8381) pressured sterling to 1.5121. Later, cable managed a recovery after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% as widely expected n made no announcement of changes to the 200 bln pounds (304bln) of the asset-buying plan. However, renewed selling at 1.5169/70 pushed price to an intra-day low of 1.5102 before rebounding on the rally in U.S. equities.
The commodity-linked currencies advanced against the US dollar, as the Australian dollar rose fm 0.8623 to 0.8792 on upbeat job data (Australia's employment change in June increased by 45.9K, versus forecast of 17.5K). The New Zealand dollar also gained fm 0.7023 to 0.7103 while usd/cad dropped fm 1.0485 to 1.0379.
On economic front, U.K industrial production and manufacturing production rose by 0.7% m/m, 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, 4.3% y/y respectively while Britain Halifax house prices fell by 0.6% in June after 0.5% drop in May. German industry output rose by 2.6% in May, much stronger than economists' expectation of 0.9% rise and upwardly revised 1.2% rise in April.
Economic data to be released on Friday include: Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. PPI, Trade balance, Canada Unemployment rate, Housing starts, U.S. Wholesales inventories.
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.2684
Late Update At 09 Jul 2010 05:49 GMT
Although euro has maintained a firm undertone
after meeting renewed buying at 1.2674 at Asian
opening, as long as y'day's high at 1.2713 holds,
near term sideways trading is seen b4 prospect of
marginal rise but 1.2730/40 shud cap upside.
Buy on dips for 1.2705 n if euro rises to 1.2725
, sell for 1.2685. Below 1.2652, top made, 1.2620.
Range Forecast
1.2665 / 1.2700
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2713/1.2765/1.2784
S: 1.2652/1.2620/1.2586
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 09/07/2010 21:40 GMT
Euro retreats from a two-month high on long liquidation
Although the single currency briefly rose above Thursday's high of 1.2713 to a 2-month high of 1.2723 in European morning, good selling interest emerged there and the pair later tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.2606 in NY mid-day on profit-taking before staging a recovery in NY afternoon.
In other news, ECB president Trichet said it is too early to declare that the financial crisis is over and budget cuts by governments will not hinder economy growth. He indicated we have a very good anchoring of inflation expectation and ECB bond-buying programme is in line with price stability.
ECB council member Stark said the European Central Bank could stop buying government bonds if the recent improvements in debt markets continue.
Versus Japanese yen, the greenback extended the rally which began on Wednesday due to return of risk appetite as global stocks continued to rise , price rose above previous day's high of 88.64 to 88.71 in Asia partly due to latest report which showed the embattling DPJ would likely win about 50 or even fewer seats in Sunday's upper house election, well short of the target 54 seats the party has up for re-election. However, profit-taking caused dollar to retreat 88.37 in Europe and the pair traded narrowly for the rest of the day due to the absence of significant U.S. economic data. The greenback eventually closed the day at 88.65.
Although the British pound rebounded from 1.5132 in Asia on cross unwinding in sterling and rose to 1.5205 in European morning after the release of U.K. trade data, the pound quickly retreated from there and tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.5051 on cross selling in sterling (eur/gbp rose from 0.8334 to 0.8399) in NY afternoon before stabilising. U.K. Global and non-EU goods trade balance in May came in at -8.062 and -4.487 bln pounds respectively, the biggest deficit since Jan, versus the expectation of -7.0 and -3.8 bln pounds.
The Canada dollar surged on stronger-than expected jobs data and usd/cad tanked from 1.0455 to 1.0296 as Canada's unemployment rate in June came in at 7.9%, versus the forecast 8.1%.
On the economic front, U.S. wholesale sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.3% against the economists' forecast of 0.5% rise whist wholesale inventories rose by 0.5% versus the expectation of 0.4% increase.
Economic data to be released next week include: Japan Domestic CGPI, U.K. GDP, Current account on Monday, U.K. RICS house prices, BRC retail sales, CPI, RPI, DCLG house prices, Australia NAB business confidence, Japan Industrial production, capacity utilisation, Consumer confidence, Germany ZEW index, EU ZEW survey, U.S. Trade balance, Canada Exports, Imports, Trade Balance on Tuesday, New Zealand Retail sakes, U.K. ILO unemployment, Claimant count, EU Industrial production, HICP final, U.S. Export price, Import price, Retail sales, Business inventories on Wednesday, Japan BOJ rate decision, Swiss ZEW index, U.S. Jobless claims, PPI, Capacity utilisation, Industrial production, Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday, U.S. CPI, Real earnings, Net LT TIC flows, U. Michigan survey, Canada Leading indicators on Friday.
USD/JPY Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY
USD/JPY : 88.82
Last Update At 12 Jul 2010 06:29 GMT
Present stronger-than-expected retreat fm 89.15
suggests an intra-day top has possibly been made,
consolidation with downside bias wud be seen n
below 88.71 may bring a minor retrace. to 88.40/50
but sup at 88.00 wud remain intact.
Wud be prudent to exit long n stand aside for
now. Abv 89.15 wud bring one more rise to 89.46.
Range Forecast
88.71 / 89.00
Resistance/Support
R: 89.15 / 89.46 / 89.78
S: 88.71 / 88.55 / 88.37
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Support, Resistance and Range Forecast - AceTrader
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 13 Jul 2010 04:23 GMT
Range Forecast
88.45 / 88.75
Resistance/Support
R: 88.87 / 89.15 / 89.46
S: 88.39 / 88.27 / 88.00
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 13 Jul 2010 06:05 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2575 / 1.2605
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2615/1.2649/1.2688
S: 1.2550/1.2504/1.2479
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 13 Jul 2010 05:15 GMT
Range Forecast
1.0595 / 1.0620
Resistance/Support
R: 1.0629/1.0647/1.0676
S: 1.0582/1.0543/1.0528
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 13 Jul 2010 06:09 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4970 / 1.5015
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5047/1.5086/1.5102
S: 1.4949/1.4926/1.4873
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-13-7-2010
Market Review - 13/07/2010 21:54 GMT
Euro rallies to a fresh two-month high on solid Greek bond auction and strong U.S. corporate earnings
Although the single currency rose briefly to 1.2615 in Asian opening on improved risk appetites as Alcoa, U.S. largest aluminum producer, posted a higher-than-expected second quarter profit, the pair nose-dived to an intra-day low of 1.2522 after Moody's downgraded Portugal by 2-notches to A1 from AA2. Moody said Portugal's growth is likely to remain weak unless structural reforms bear fruit in medium to long term. Later, buying interest at said 1.2522 low lifted the pair up and the single currency rallied to a fresh two-month high of 1.2739 in NY mid-day on renewed risk appetites on solid Greek bond auction together with the rally in global stock markets.
Greece sold 1.625 billion euros of six-month T-bills at a yield slightly cheaper than the 5.0% it pays to borrow from EU/IMF. The solid auction sales highlighted Greece still has some way to go in convincing investors and eased concerns over Europe debt crisis. Cross buying in euro supported the single currency as eur/jpy surged fm 110.68 to 112.94, eur/gbp rose sharply from 0.8317 to 0.8392 and eur/chf strengthened from 1.3310 to 1.3423.
Dow Jones index rose strongly and closed the day up by 147 points, or 1.44% to 10363 whilst FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX gained by 2.01%, 1.96% and 1.87% respectively.
In addition, EU's Reynders said EU banks stress tests will be published in a consolidated version. He indicated EU Finance Ministers agreed on new negotiating mandate on banking supervision and will discuss bank tax, transaction tax on Septmeber 7. EU's Rehn said he is confident that EU stress tests will give clear picture of resilience of Bank system and EU bank system is strong and resilient. Rehn added EU countries should have funds for recapitalisation.
Although the British pound dropped in tandem with euro from 1.5047 to 1.4965 in European morning, cable then rebounded from there to 1.5118 on talk of the crown prince of Abu Dhabi is considering investing BP n later extended intra-day euro-led strong rise to 1.5192 in NY morning due to the rally in global stock markets. Cable was supported by U.K. Inflation figures in June, as core consumer inflation rose by 3.1% versus the expectation of 2.8% and above 2.9% in May.
The greenback fell against the Japanese Yen initially from 88.87 to 88.47 in Asia on renewed fear of tightening by PBOC. Later, although the greenback rebounded to 88.82 in European morning on short-covering, the pair then fell sharply to an intra-day low of 88.02 in NY morning before rebounding strongly due to the rally in U.S. and European stocks.
In other news, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoening said that the U.S. economic recovery is on track despite some setbacks and the central bank shud take no additional actions to encourage economic growth.
In economic front, German and eurozone ZEW index came in at 21.2 and 10.7 respectively, well below the economists' forecast of 25.0 and 18.8. U.K. June CPI rose by 0.1% m/m and 3.2% y/y, the lowest since February, whilst RPI increased by 0.2% m/m and 5.0% y/y. U.S. federal budget came in at $68.42 billion deficit in June 2010, compared to the economists' forecast of $69.5 billion and the reading of $94.33 billion in June 2009.
Economic data to be released on Wednesday include: New Zealand Retail sales, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting, U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence, Average earnings 3mths, ILO unemployment rate, Claimant count, EU Industrial production, HICP final, U.S. Export price, Import price (Jun), Retail sales, Retail sales less auto, Business inventories and Minutes of FOMC Meeting.
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 14/07/2010 21:55 GMT
Dollar falls against yen after dovish FOMC minutes, euro rises to a fresh 2-month high
Although the greenback rose initially against the Japanese yen on bullish market sentiment after U.S. computer chip giant Intel posted strong Q2 earnings and the pair extend the upmove from previous session low of 88.02 to 89.12 in Asia on cross selling in yen due to the strength of Asian stock markets (Nikkei-225 rose strongly by 2.7% to 9795.24), the dollar fell sharply in European session on cross buying in yen and tumbled to 88.19 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. Later, despite dollar's rebound from 88.19 to 88.62, the pair fell again after the dovish minutes of FOMC's June meeting and hit an intra-day low of 88.06 before recovering.
The minutes of FOMC meeting in June showed that members of the Federal Reserve agreed it would be appropriate to maintain the target range of 0-0.25% for the Fed fund rate. In addition, the members said the central bank should be ready to consider additional steps to boost the U.S. economy if an already softening economic outlook took a noticeable turn for the worse. The Fed also lowered its forecast of 2010 U.S. GDP to the range of +3.0% to +3.5% (previous +3.2% to +3.7%) and expected 2010 unemployment rate in 9.2% to 9.3% (previous 9.1% to 9.5%).
The greenback was also pressured by weak U.S. sales data, as U.S. June retail sales dropped by 0.5% versus the economists' forecast of -0.2% and the core retail sales fell by 0.1% against the expectation of no change.
In addition, the International Monetary Fund urged Japan to act soon to reduce its huge public debt using measures including a gradual increase in its consumption tax.
Although the single currency traded narrowly in Asia and Europe and fell to an intra-day low of 1.2682 in U.S. morning session, the pair pared its early losses and rose to a fresh two-month high of 1.2778 in NY mid-day. Strong U.S. corporate earnings also supported the single currency as investors were prompted to seek for high yield currencies and assets. The euro later retreated after the release of FOMC minutes and ended the day at 1.2745.
The eurozone industrial production in May rose by 0.9% m/m and 9.4% y/y versus the economists' forecast of 1.2% m/m and 11.2% y/y respectively.
Although the British pound traded relatively narrowly in Asia and then rose to 1.5291 in European morning on better-than-expected U.K. jobs data, cable then fell to 1.5204 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. Later, renewed buying at 1.5201 lifted the British pound again n sterling rose to a ten-week high of 1.5298 in NY on dollar's broad-based weakness before retreating.
U.K. unemployment rate came in at 7.8% versus the previous 7.9% in May, while U.K. jobless claimants dropped by 20.8K to the lowest in a year, versus the expectations of -20.0K and -30.9k in May.
In other news, BOE's Sentance said there has been improvement in business situation, more than normal amount of uncertainty and BOE needs to start process of moving interest rate up from extremely low level.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: Japan BOJ rate decision, Machine tools orders, Swiss ZEW index, U.S. Jobless claims, PPI, Empire state mfg, Capacity utilisation, Industrial production and Philadelphia Fed survey.
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.2739
Late Update At 15 Jul 2010 04:23 GMT
Despite euro's rebound fm 1.2708 to 1.2765 in
Asian morning, subsequent retreat suggests further
choppy trading below y'day's 2-month high of 1.2778
wud continue until European opening n pullback twd
1.2708 is likely but sup at 1.2682 shud hold.
Still favour selling on recovery n buy on dips
for day trade. Abv 1.2778 may risk gain twd 1.2803.
Range Forecast
1.2725 / 1.2755
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2778/1.2803/1.2811
S: 1.2708/1.2682/1.2649
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 15/07/2010 21:33 GMT
Euro rallies above 1.2900 on weak U.S. manufacturing data
Although the single currency rose from 1.2708 to 1.2765 in Asian morning after the release of China's GDP, H1 came out first at 11.1%, the pair then retreated when Q1 y/y released 'later' at 10.3% (lower than the economists' forecast of 10.5%) which showed Chinese economic growth slowed in Q2. Euro dropped to 1.2717 in European morning before renewed buying interest lifted price again and the pair penetrated previous session's high of 1.2778 on strong Spain's bond auction, rallied above 1.2900 for the first time since May to a high of 1.2955 in late NY due to weak manufacturing data from New York and Philadelphia that added concerns over the strength of the U.S. economy.
The New York Federal Reserve Bank's 'Empire State' general business conditions index fell from 19.57 to 5.08 in July, the lowest since December 2009, while the Philadelphia Fed survey in July dropped from 8.0 to 5.1, the lowest since August 2009.
Spain's debt sale drew strong demand as Spain sold 3 billion euros of 15-year bonds, compared with the target of 2-3 billion.
The single currency was supported by strong U.S. corporate earnings as JP Morgan Chase, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets said its earnings jumped to $1.09 per share, much better than the estimate of $0.67 per share.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback extended this week's fall in Asia on weakness in Asian bourses (Nikkei-225 eased by 1.12% to 9685.53) after China released its Q2 GDP, showing economic recovery is slowing and the lackluster debut of Agricultural Bank of China's $22 billion IPO has triggered risk aversion activities and dropped below Tuesday's low of 88.02 to 87.82. Although the pair then rebounded to 88.27 on short-covering, the dollar tumbled to an intra-day low of 87.23 in NY morning after the release of weak manufacturing and inflation data before stabilising.
U.S. PPI fell by 0.5% for the third straight month in July while U.S. weekly Jobless claims dropped more than expected to 429K, the lowest level in nearly 2 years.
In other news, Fed's Vice Chairman nominee Janet Yellen said it would be important to guard against inflation and that the central bank would need to pull back its easy money policies cautiously when the time is right.
Although the British pound briefly dipped to an intra-day low of 1.5236 at Asian opening, cable then rebounded on short-covering and rallied in tandem with euro in European and NY sessions, touched an intra-day high of 1.5473 in late NY trading before easing.
BOJ left key overnight call rate unchanged at 0.1% and it said policy board decision on rate was unanimous and would maintain very easy monetary conditions. BOJ also raised Japan's growth forecast for the year ending March 2011 to 2.6% from 1.8% estimated in April but cut next year's from 2% to 1.9%.
Economic data to be released on Friday include: New Zealand CPI, Japan Tertiary industry index, EU Trade balance, U.S. CPI, CPI core, Real earnings, NET LT TIC, U. Michigan survey Prel. and Canada Leading indicators.
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