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Market Review - 21/05/2016 03:11GMT
Dollar hits multi-week highs against yen on hawkish Fed bets
Summarised Currency market report by Thomson Reuters :
The U.S. dollar hit its highest level against the yen in more than three weeks on Friday on expectations of a potential summer Federal Reserve interest rate hike, while the dollar edged lower against the euro after profit-taking.
The dollar hit 110.58 yen, its highest level against the Japanese currency since April 28. Analysts said minutes from the Fed's April meeting released Wednesday indicating a June rate hike was firmly on the table were still supporting the dollar.
Some analysts also said it was unlikely that Group of 7 countries would reject potential Japanese plans to weaken the yen at a G7 meeting of finance leaders this weekend in Sendai, Japan.
Expectations for a hawkish Fed failed to buoy the dollar against the euro over the session. Analysts said traders took profits from the dollar's rally against the euro after the euro fell to a more than seven-week low against the greenback of $1.1178 on Thursday.
The euro was last up 0.14 percent against the dollar at $1.1218, but remained on track for its third straight weekly decline against the dollar. The dollar was on track for its third straight weekly gain against the yen.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.04 percent at 95.332. The index was set for its third straight weekly gain, of about 0.8 percent.
The dollar was last up 0.25 percent against the yen at 110.22 yen. The dollar was last mostly flat against the Swiss franc at 0.9905 franc after hitting a more than 10-week high of 0.9925 franc earlier on Friday.
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AceTraderFx May 23: G7 finance leaders united over the weekend in "wishing" that Britain stays in the EU
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- GBP/USD
23 May 2016 01:10GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Reuters reported over the w/end the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union extended its lead over the "Out" campaign in an opinion poll published on Saturday, while two major bookmakers offered the shortest odds to date on a vote to remain.
The poll from market research company Opinium for the Observer newspaper marked the sixth poll out of seven published in the last week to show the Remain campaign in the lead.
Forty-four percent of Britons wanted to remain in the EU, up from 42 percent in an Opinium/Observer poll at the end of last month, while the proportion wanting to leave edged down a point to 40 percent.
As polls have given sharply different pictures of public opinion, many investors are watching betting odds closely. Odds have consistently indicated a high probability of an "In" result in the June 23 referendum.
The two bookmakers said the vast majority of cash staked on the referendum backed a "Remain" result - 90 percent of it in the case of Ladbrokes. Still, William Hill said most individual gamblers had betted on Britain leaving the EU.
"The Brexit rally of a few weeks ago seems a distant memory. It's significant that so many people are prepared to back remain despite the short odds," according to Ladbrokes.
William Hill's odds now reflect an 85 percent chance of a "Remain" vote, up from 83 percent on Friday. Ladbrokes, which removes the margin it takes on bets from its calculations, pointed to a 79 percent chance - up from 66 percent a month ago.
Earlier on Saturday, finance leaders of the Group of Seven industrial powers united over the weekend in wishing that Britain stays in the EU, but acknowledged they could do little more than hope.
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AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Below 1.1200/04 would signal said correction from 1.1180 has ended and yield resumption of recent decline towards daily chart objective at 1.1144.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 May 2016 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing loss in subdued Tokyo morning after yesterday's intra-day selloff from 110.24 (AUS) to as low as 109.11 in 'delayed' reaction to weekend's warning issued by U.S. to Japan on yen-intervention to weaken the yen.
Although dlr tumbled to session low of 09.11 in New York after tripping stops below 109.33 (European low), short-covering (profit-taking) lifted price back to 109.41 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading above said New York low would continue before decline from Friday's 3-week top at 110.59 resumes later today.
Offers are tipped at 109.55/65 and more above with stops reported above 110.00, initial bids are noted at 109.20-10 with stops below 109.00.
Later today, U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, then Market mfg PMI, new home sales data n Richmond Fed mfg shipment index during New York morning session.
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24 May 2016 09:18
GBP/USD - ..... Sterling rallied broadly at European morning, price climbed from 1.4478 to 1.4548. Reuters reported sterling was boosted by a poll that showed the "Remain" camp was well ahead over their "Brexit" rivals with a month to go before a vote on Britain's future in the European Union.
On Monday, sterling started the week on a shaky note after warnings from Prime Minister David Cameron and finance minister George Osborne that a vote to leave the EU could push Britain into a year-long recession and cost at least half a million jobs.
But the latest poll from ORB published in Tuesday's edition of the Telegraph newspaper gave the "Remain" camp a 13-point lead over their "Leave" rivals, after winning support for the first time from a majority of men, those aged over 65 and Conservative voters. That seemed to soothe nerves towards the currency, according to the traders.
The pound tends to underperform during times of risk aversion because of the huge investment flows Britain relies on to balance its more than 5-percent current account deficit.
Flows dry up when investors are worried about growth and market stability - jitters that are heightened by any developments that make a Brexit looks more likely.
Brexit concerns drove the pound down 11 percent on a trade-weighted basis between mid-November and early April, when it hit a 2-1/2-year low, but it has recovered almost 5 percent.
That rise came as investors priced out chances of a rate cut that some were factoring in if Britain opted to leave the union.
But with investors also starting to factor in greater chances that the Federal Reserve could raise rates this summer, traders expect gains in the pound against the dollar to run out.
Attention will now turn to a testimony by Bank of England chief Mark Carney and three other policymakers before lawmakers.
In the past, Carney has warned about downside risks from Britain exiting the EU, comments which have drawn sharp criticism from those campaigning to leave the union.
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25 May 2016 02:08
Athens' gross financing needs show be kept below 15 percent of GDP in the medium term and below 20 percent beyond that.
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AceTraderFx May 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major USD/JPY
Update Time: 25 May 2016 09:59 GMTUSD/JPY - 110.17
Yesterday's intra-day rally signals pullback from last Friday's high of 110.59 has ended at 109.11 on Monday and upside bias is seen for dollar's recent upmove from May's fresh 18-month bottom at 105.55 to resume and extend gain to 111.00 and later 111.50/60 before correction occurs due to 'loss of momentum.'
On the downside, only below 109.11 would indicate a temp. top has been made and yield retracement of aforesaid rise to next chart support at 108.72.
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AceTraderFx May 26: Daily Outlook on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 109.49
26 May 2016 01:20GMTDespite dlr's erratic rise from 109.11 (Monday) to 110.45 yesterday, intra-day selloff in Asia suggests choppy trading below last Friday's 3-week peak at 110.59 would continue and below 109.11 would bring stronger retrace. of early rise from 105.55 (May) towards 108.72.
Turn cautious seller on recovery for 108.85 and only above 110.06 aborts bearishness, 110.35/45.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 May 2016 04:02GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Despite yesterday's intra-day marginal breach of Tuesday's 1.1133 low to a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1129 in New York morning, traders quickly took profit due to lack of follow-through selling n lifted euro back up to 1.1167 in New York afternoon.
Price later met renewed buying at 1.1146 at New York close and euro climbed to 1.1178 shortly after Asian open as intra-day selloff in dlr/yen led to broad-based usd's weakness, euro tested 1.1180 before easing.
Intra-day rebound strongly suggests euro's recent decline has made a temp. bottom yesterday at 1.1129 and initial stops above 1.1180 are now in focus, more buy stops are touted above 1.1200/05, however, some offers are noted at 1.1235/45.
Therefore, even 1.1180 res is taken out, would be wise to buy euro on subsequent retreat.
Bids have been raised to 1.1160-55 and more below with some stops below 1.1125, however, there is market chatter of fairly good buying interest above 1.1100.
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